Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850) but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarise attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.Comment: The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. \c{opyright} 2007 Edwards, Crucifix and Harriso

Functional mechanisms underlying pleiotropic risk alleles at the 19p13.1 breast-ovarian cancer susceptibility locus

A locus at 19p13 is associated with breast cancer (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Here we analyse 438 SNPs in this region in 46,451 BC and 15,438 OC cases, 15,252 BRCA1 mutation carriers and 73,444 controls and identify 13 candidate causal SNPs associated with serous OC (P=9.2 × 10-20), ER-negative BC (P=1.1 × 10-13), BRCA1-associated BC (P=7.7 × 10-16) and triple negative BC (P-diff=2 × 10-5). Genotype-gene expression associations are identified for candidate target genes ANKLE1 (P=2 × 10-3) and ABHD8 (P<2 × 10-3). Chromosome conformation capture identifies interactions between four candidate SNPs and ABHD8, and luciferase assays indicate six risk alleles increased transactivation of the ADHD8 promoter. Targeted deletion of a region containing risk SNP rs56069439 in a putative enhancer induces ANKLE1 downregulation; and mRNA stability assays indicate functional effects for an ANKLE1 3′-UTR SNP. Altogether, these data suggest that multiple SNPs at 19p13 regulate ABHD8 and perhaps ANKLE1 expression, and indicate common mechanisms underlying breast and ovarian cancer risk

Velocity-space sensitivity of the time-of-flight neutron spectrometer at JET

The velocity-space sensitivities of fast-ion diagnostics are often described by so-called weight functions. Recently, we formulated weight functions showing the velocity-space sensitivity of the often dominant beam-target part of neutron energy spectra. These weight functions for neutron emission spectrometry (NES) are independent of the particular NES diagnostic. Here we apply these NES weight functions to the time-of-flight spectrometer TOFOR at JET. By taking the instrumental response function of TOFOR into account, we calculate time-of-flight NES weight functions that enable us to directly determine the velocity-space sensitivity of a given part of a measured time-of-flight spectrum from TOFOR

Measurement of the View the tt production cross-section using eμ events with b-tagged jets in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper describes a measurement of the inclusive top quark pair production cross-section (σtt¯) with a data sample of 3.2 fb−1 of proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 13 TeV, collected in 2015 by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. This measurement uses events with an opposite-charge electron–muon pair in the final state. Jets containing b-quarks are tagged using an algorithm based on track impact parameters and reconstructed secondary vertices. The numbers of events with exactly one and exactly two b-tagged jets are counted and used to determine simultaneously σtt¯ and the efficiency to reconstruct and b-tag a jet from a top quark decay, thereby minimising the associated systematic uncertainties. The cross-section is measured to be: σtt¯ = 818 ± 8 (stat) ± 27 (syst) ± 19 (lumi) ± 12 (beam) pb, where the four uncertainties arise from data statistics, experimental and theoretical systematic effects, the integrated luminosity and the LHC beam energy, giving a total relative uncertainty of 4.4%. The result is consistent with theoretical QCD calculations at next-to-next-to-leading order. A fiducial measurement corresponding to the experimental acceptance of the leptons is also presented

Search for dark matter produced in association with a hadronically decaying vector boson in pp collisions at sqrt (s) = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is presented for dark matter produced in association with a hadronically decaying W or Z boson using 3.2 fb−1 of pp collisions at View the MathML sources=13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Events with a hadronic jet compatible with a W or Z boson and with large missing transverse momentum are analysed. The data are consistent with the Standard Model predictions and are interpreted in terms of both an effective field theory and a simplified model containing dark matter

Search for TeV-scale gravity signatures in high-mass final states with leptons and jets with the ATLAS detector at sqrt [ s ] = 13TeV

A search for physics beyond the Standard Model, in final states with at least one high transverse momentum charged lepton (electron or muon) and two additional high transverse momentum leptons or jets, is performed using 3.2 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider in 2015 at √s = 13 TeV. The upper end of the distribution of the scalar sum of the transverse momenta of leptons and jets is sensitive to the production of high-mass objects. No excess of events beyond Standard Model predictions is observed. Exclusion limits are set for models of microscopic black holes with two to six extra dimensions

Search for resonances in the mass distribution of jet pairs with one or two jets identified as b-jets in proton–proton collisions at √s=13TeV with the ATLAS detector

Searches for high-mass resonances in the dijet invariant mass spectrum with one or two jets identi-fied as b-jets are performed using an integrated luminosity of 3.2fb−1of proton–proton collisions with a centre-of-mass energy of √s=13TeVrecorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Noevidence of anomalous phenomena is observed in the data, which are used to exclude, at 95%credibility level, excited b∗quarks with masses from 1.1TeVto 2.1TeVand leptophobic Z bosons with masses from 1.1TeVto 1.5TeV. Contributions of a Gaussian signal shape with effective cross sections ranging from approximately 0.4 to 0.001pb are also excluded in the mass range 1.5–5.0TeV

Measurement of the double-differential high-mass Drell-Yan cross section in pp collisions at √s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a measurement of the double-differential cross section for the Drell-Yan Z/γ∗ → ℓ+ℓ− and photon-induced γγ → ℓ+ℓ− processes where ℓ is an electron or muon. The measurement is performed for invariant masses of the lepton pairs, mℓℓ, between 116 GeV and 1500 GeV using a sample of 20.3 fb−1 of pp collisions data at centre-of-mass energy of √s = 8 TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC in 2012. The data are presented double differentially in invariant mass and absolute dilepton rapidity as well as in invariant mass and absolute pseudorapidity separation of the lepton pair. The single-differential cross section as a function of mℓℓ is also reported. The electron and muon channel measurements are combined and a total experimental precision of better than 1% is achieved at low mℓℓ. A comparison to next-to-next-to-leading order perturbative QCD predictions using several recent parton distribution functions and including next-to-leading order electroweak effects indicates the potential of the data to constrain parton distribution functions. In particular, a large impact of the data on the photon PDF is demonstrated

Measurement of W± and Z-boson production cross sections in pp collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

See paper for full list of authors - 17 pages plus author list + cover pages (34 pages total), 5 figures, 3 tables, submitted to Phys. Lett. B, All figures including auxiliary figures are available at https://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/STDM-2015-03/International audienceMeasurements of the $W^{\pm} \rightarrow \ell^{\pm} \nu$ and $Z \rightarrow \ell^+ \ell^-$ production cross sections (where $\ell^{\pm}=e^{\pm},\mu^{\pm}$) in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV are presented using data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 81 pb$^{-1}$. The total inclusive $W^{\pm}$-boson production cross sections times the single-lepton-flavour branching ratios are $\sigma_{W^+}^{tot}= 11.78 \pm 0.02 (stat) \pm 0.32 (sys) \pm 0.59 (lumi)$ nb and $\sigma_{W^-}^{tot} = 8.75 \pm 0.02 (stat) \pm 0.24 (sys) \pm 0.44 (lumi)$ nb for $W^+$ and $W^-$, respectively. The total inclusive $Z$-boson production cross section times leptonic branching ratio, within the invariant mass window $66 < m_{\ell\ell} < 116$ GeV, is $\sigma_{Z}^{tot} = 1.97 \pm 0.01 (stat) \pm 0.04 (sys) \pm 0.10 (lumi)$ nb. The $W^+$, $W^-$, and $Z$-boson production cross sections and cross-section ratios within a fiducial region defined by the detector acceptance are also measured. The cross-section ratios benefit from significant cancellation of experimental uncertainties, resulting in $\sigma_{W^+}^{fid}/\sigma_{W^-}^{fid} = 1.295 \pm 0.003 (stat) \pm 0.010 (sys)$ and $\sigma_{W^{\pm}}^{fid}/\sigma_{Z}^{fid} = 10.31 \pm 0.04 (stat) \pm 0.20 (sys)$. Theoretical predictions, based on calculations accurate to next-to-next-to-leading order for quantum chromodynamics and next-to-leading order for electroweak processes and which employ different parton distribution function sets, are compared to these measurements

Search for high-mass new phenomena in the dilepton final state using proton–proton collisions at View the MathML sources=13TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is conducted for both resonant and non-resonant high-mass new phenomena in dielectron and dimuon final states. The search uses View the MathML source3.2fb−1 of proton–proton collision data, collected at View the MathML sources=13TeV by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC in 2015. The dilepton invariant mass is used as the discriminating variable. No significant deviation from the Standard Model prediction is observed; therefore limits are set on the signal model parameters of interest at 95% credibility level. Upper limits are set on the cross-section times branching ratio for resonances decaying to dileptons, and the limits are converted into lower limits on the resonance mass, ranging between 2.74 TeV and 3.36 TeV, depending on the model. Lower limits on the ℓℓqqℓℓqq contact interaction scale are set between 16.7 TeV and 25.2 TeV, also depending on the mode