Estimation of Multivariate Discrete Hawkes Processes: An Application to Incident Monitoring

Hawkes processes are a class of self-exciting point processes that are used to model complex phenomena. While most applications of Hawkes processes assume that event data occurs in continuous-time, the less-studied discrete-time version of the process is more appropriate in some situations. In this work, we develop methodology for the efficient implementation of discrete Hawkes processes. We achieve this by developing efficient algorithms to evaluate the log-likelihood function and its gradient, whose computational complexity is linear in the number of events. We extend these methods to a particular form of a multivariate marked discrete Hawkes process which we use to model the occurrences of violent events within a forensic psychiatric hospital. A prominent feature of our problem, captured by a mark in our process, is the presence of an alarm system which can be heard throughout the hospital. An alarm is sounded when an event is particularly violent in nature and warrants a call for assistance from other members of staff. We conduct a detailed analysis showing that such a variant of the Hawkes process manages to outperform alternative models in terms of predictive power. Finally, we interpret our findings and describe their implications

Measuring the effects of listening for leisure on outcome after stroke (MELLO):A pilot randomized controlled trial of mindful music listening

Background: Cognitive deficits and low mood are common post-stroke. Music listening is suggested to have beneficial effects on cognition, while mindfulness may improve mood. Combining these approaches may enhance cognitive recovery and improve mood early post-stroke. Aims: To assess the feasibility and acceptability of a novel mindful music listening intervention. Methods: A parallel group randomized controlled feasibility trial with ischemic stroke patients, comparing three groups; mindful music listening, music listening and audiobook listening (control group), eight weeks intervention. Feasibility was measured using adherence to protocol and questionnaires. Cognition (including measures of verbal memory and attention) and mood (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) were assessed at baseline, end of intervention and at six-months post-stroke. Results: Seventy-two participants were randomized to mindful music listening (n = 23), music listening (n = 24), or audiobook listening (n = 25). Feasibility and acceptability measures were encouraging: 94% fully consistent with protocol; 68.1% completing ≥6/8 treatment visits; 80–107% listening adherence; 83% retention to six-month endpoint. Treatment effect sizes for cognition at six month follow-up ranged from d = 0.00 ([−0.64,0.64], music alone), d = 0.31, ([0.36,0.97], mindful music) for list learning; to d = 0.58 ([0.06,1.11], music alone), d = 0.51 ([−0.07,1.09], mindful music) for immediate story recall; and d = 0.67 ([0.12,1.22], music alone), d = 0.77 ([0.16,1.38]mindful music) for attentional switching compared to audiobooks. No signal of change was seen for mood. A definitive study would require 306 participants to detect a clinically substantial difference in improvement (z-score difference = 0.66, p = 0.017, 80% power) in verbal memory (delayed story recall). Conclusions: Mindful music listening is feasible and acceptable post-stroke. Music listening interventions appear to be a promising approach to improving recovery from stroke

Progress and prospects for event tourism research

This paper examines event tourism as a field of study and area of professional practice updating the previous review article published in 2008. In this substantially extended review, a deeper analysis of the field’s evolution and development is presented, charting the growth of the literature, focusing both chronologically and thematically. A framework for understanding and creating knowledge about events and tourism is presented, forming the basis which signposts established research themes and concepts and outlines future directions for research. In addition, the review article focuses on constraining and propelling forces, ontological advances, contributions from key journals, and emerging themes and issues. It also presents a roadmap for research activity in event tourism

How well prepared do beginning NZ primary school teachers feel they are to teach English language learners?

The New Zealand Curriculum (2007) and other recent Ministry of Education publications have stated that effective teachers attend to the needs of culturally and linguistically diverse learners, many of whom are English language learners (ELLs). A small-scale survey of Provisionally Registered Teachers (PRTs) who had completed primary teacher training within the last four years was carried out. It was thought that these teachers would be most able to recall any preparation for teaching ELLs in their Initial Teacher Education (ITE) programme. The teachers were asked whether their ITE had provided them with knowledge about second language acquisition, specific learning needs of ELLs, and resources and strategies for teaching ELLs. The data obtained indicated that the PRTs felt underprepared to meet the needs of ELLs, particularly in some areas. This paper presents the results of the survey, and suggests implications, directions for further research and recommendations for teacher educators

Social contagion and environmental predictors of violent and aggressive behaviour

INTRODUCTION: Previous research investigating incidents of violence and aggression (V&A) within secure forensic settings have typically focused on individual factors of patients such as diagnosis and previous engagement in violent behaviour. The current thesis aims to complete an investigation of environmental effects which may influence rates of V&A within secure forensic mental health settings. A systematic review was undertaken to identify, synthesizes and evaluate the available research investigating environmental factors affecting rates of V&A within forensic mental health settings. Secondly an empirical study was completed which investigated the roles of temporal, meteorological and social contagion effects within a high security forensic hospital as they relate to rates of V&A. METHODS: A systemic search of relevant databases identified twenty-two studies meeting the pre-defined search criteria. The results of these studies were synthesised and discussed in the context of four groupings of effects: temporal & seasonal effects; meteorological effects; staff factors and ward characteristics. An assessment of the studies methodological quality was also completed. The empirical paper was a retrospective cohort study which will followed an observational cross-sectional design. Routinely collected data about incidents of V&A were collatedcollected between the dates 26/06/2012 to the 30/09/2021. This data was combined with available meteorological data. Temporal & meteorological effects were investigated using regression models., wWhile social contagion effects were investigated utilising a discreet Hawkes process. RESULTS: The results of the systematic review indicate that environmental effects areis a growing area of research interest which suffers due to inconsistency in the methodological strength of some of the studies. However, there is evidence to support the inclusion of temporal effects, staff factors and ward characteristics into dynamic risk assessments. The need to consider temporal factors was further supported by the results of the empirical study which found a significant day of the week, and time of day effect. These results are discussed in the context of typical routines of the study hospital. There currently exists insufficient evidence to comment fully on the effect of meteorological conditions as they relate to rates of V&A. The application of the Hawkes process provided some tentative evidence to support the theory that incidents of V&A are spread in part by a social contagion effect. CONCLUSION: The current thesis provides good evidence to support the use of the environmental factors within dynamic risk assessments, as there is clear evidence that the risk of V&A is not a constant entity, but instead fluctuates and is influenced by a number of environmental factors. Secondly, it is possible that an environmental effect such as shift change overs, medication distribution or being made aware of previous acts of V&A may be leading to increases in V&A. These findings may be significant in planning future hospital routines and systems to reduce the possible build of environmental pressures

Investigating the Implications of Covid-19 on College Enrollment throughout the State of Georgia

The arrival of Covid-19 in January 2020 transformed the field of education, and protective measures have impacted universities worldwide as they have implemented social distancing, mask mandates, virtual learning, and other procedures to ensure the safety of their staff and students. Colleges are part of the service industry which has taken the greatest hit from this health crisis, and changes in consumer spending could indicate a potential decline in college enrollment. How has student enrollment changed for Georgia universities over the last ten years? The purpose of this quantitative research study is to analyze total student enrollment trends over a ten-year period covering pre- and post-pandemic records while testing to see if average enrollment declined for all universities within the state of Georgia. The secondary data was gathered from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), and it reviews student enrollment data for 148 higher education institutions within the state of Georgia between the fall semesters of 2010 and 2020. The conclusions will address whether there was a significant decline in university enrollment in the state of Georgia after the pandemic. Expected findings from the study are to reveal a positive trend of fall enrollment data and will decline sharply with the arrival of the pandemic in 2020. The findings will be useful for college administrators and assist with future financial as well as marketing decisions for universities throughout the state

Steady, Girl, and Step Boldly

AN ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS OF JESSICA EASTO, for the Master of Fine Arts degree in FICTION, presented on APRIL 17, 2013, at Southern Illinois University Carbondale. TITLE: STEADY, GIRL, AND STEP BOLDLY MAJOR PROFESSOR: Beth Lordan Steady, Girl, and Step Boldly is a pairing of two long stories

Meeting the needs of English language learners: How well prepared do beginning New Zealand primary school teachers feel?

The New Zealand Curriculum (2007) and other recent Ministry of Education publications have stated that effective teachers attend to the needs of culturally and linguistically diverse learners, many of whom are English language learners (ELLs). A small-scale survey of Provisionally Registered Teachers (PRTs) who had completed primary teacher training within the last four years was carried out. It was thought that these teachers would be most able to recall any preparation for teaching ELLs in their Initial Teacher Education (ITE) programme. The teachers were asked whether their ITE had provided them with knowledge about second language acquisition, specific learning needs of ELLs, and resources and strategies for teaching ELLs. The data obtained indicated that the PRTs felt underprepared to meet the needs of ELLs, particularly in some areas. This paper presents the results of the survey, and suggests implications, directions for further research and recommendations for teacher educators