On the Testing of Seismicity Models

Recently a likelihood-based methodology has been developed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with a view to testing and ranking seismicity models. We analyze this approach from the standpoint of possible applications to hazard analysis. We arrive at the conclusion that model testing can be made more efficient by focusing on some integral characteristics of the seismicity distribution. This is achieved either in the likelihood framework but with economical and physically reasonable coarsening of the phase space or by choosing a suitable measure of closeness between empirical and model seismicity rate in this space.Comment: To appear at Acta Geophysic

Kinetic study of time-dependent fixation of UVI on biochar

Biochar, a by-product from the production of biofuel and syngas by gasification, was tested as a material for adsorption and fixation of UVI from aqueous solutions. A batch experiment was conducted to study the factors that influence the adsorption and time-dependent fixation on biochar at 20oC, including pH, initial concentration of UVI and contact time. Uranium (UVI) adsorption was highly dependent on pH but adsorption on biochar was high over a wide range of pH values, from 4.5 to 9.0, and adsorption strength was time-dependent over several days. The experimental data for pH > 7 were most effectively modelled using a Freundlich adsorption isotherm coupled to a reversible first order kinetic equation to describe the time-dependent fixation of UVI within the biochar structure. Desorption experiments showed that UVI was only sparingly desorbable from the biochar with time and isotopic dilution with 233UVI confirmed the low, or time-dependent, lability of adsorbed 238UVI. Below pH 7 the adsorption isotherm trend suggested precipitation, rather than true adsorption, may occur. However, across all pH values (4.5–9) measured saturation indices suggested precipitation was possible: autunite below pH 6.5 and either swartzite, liebigite or bayleyite above pH 6.5

Investigating Feedback on Practice Among Teachers: Coherence of Observed and Perceived Feedback

Despite that benefits of feedback in student learning are reported in much research, little has been reported regarding the use of feedback from teach- ers to other teachers—a key tool in professional development. In this study, we triangulated data from videotaped peer coaching sessions, ques- tionnaires, and interviews regarding 12 primary school teachers in four peer groups in the Netherlands. We focused our research on two issues: the interplay of observed feedback dimensions and elements and perceptions of that feedback. Feedback dimensions were generally effective and the influence of the elements on the dimensions mostly aligned with the expectations. Teachers generally perceived feedback as effective. More- over, effective observed feedback was perceived as effective. Findings indicate that peer coaches should stimulate coached teachers to become goal directed, specific, detailed, and neutral (neither positive nor negative) by using feedback elements so as to optimize feedback processes

Speech-evoked activation in adult temporal cortex measured using functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS): Are the measurements reliable?

Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a silent, non-invasive neuroimaging technique that is potentially well suited to auditory research. However, the reliability of auditory-evoked activation measured using fNIRS is largely unknown. The present study investigated the test-retest reliability of speech-evoked fNIRS responses in normally-hearing adults. Seventeen participants underwent fNIRS imaging in two sessions separated by three months. In a block design, participants were presented with auditory speech, visual speech (silent speechreading), and audiovisual speech conditions. Optode arrays were placed bilaterally over the temporal lobes, targeting auditory brain regions. A range of established metrics was used to quantify the reproducibility of cortical activation patterns, as well as the amplitude and time course of the haemodynamic response within predefined regions of interest. The use of a signal processing algorithm designed to reduce the influence of systemic physiological signals was found to be crucial to achieving reliable detection of significant activation at the group level. For auditory speech (with or without visual cues), reliability was good to excellent at the group level, but highly variable among individuals. Temporal-lobe activation in response to visual speech was less reliable, especially in the right hemisphere. Consistent with previous reports, fNIRS reliability was improved by averaging across a small number of channels overlying a cortical region of interest. Overall, the present results confirm that fNIRS can measure speech-evoked auditory responses in adults that are highly reliable at the group level, and indicate that signal processing to reduce physiological noise may substantially improve the reliability of fNIRS measurements

Associated Links Among Smoking, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, and Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Pooled Analysis in the International Lung Cancer Consortium.

Background The high relapse and mortality rate of small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) fuels the need for epidemiologic study to aid in its prevention. Methods We included 24 studies from the ILCCO collaboration. Random-effects panel logistic regression and cubic spline regression were used to estimate the effects of smoking behaviors on SCLC risk and explore their non-linearity. Further, we explored whether the risk of smoking on SCLC was mediated through COPD. Findings Significant dose–response relationships of SCLC risk were observed for all quantitative smoking variables. Smoking pack-years were associated with a sharper increase of SCLC risk for pack-years ranged 0 to approximately 50. The former smokers with longer cessation showed a 43%quit_for_5–9 years to 89%quit_for_≥ 20 years declined SCLC risk vs. subjects who had quit smoking < 5 years. Compared with non-COPD subjects, smoking behaviors showed a significantly higher effect on SCLC risk among COPD subjects, and further, COPD patients showed a 1.86-fold higher risk of SCLC. Furthermore, smoking behaviors on SCLC risk were significantly mediated through COPD which accounted for 0.70% to 7.55% of total effects. Interpretation This is the largest pooling study that provides improved understanding of smoking on SCLC, and further demonstrates a causal pathway through COPD that warrants further experimental study. Abbreviations COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; CPG, cigarettes per day; ILCCO, International Lung Cancer Consortium; MeSH, medical subject headings; NSCLC, non-small cell lung cancer; OR, odds ratio; SCLC, small cell lung cancer

Early Ipswichian (last interglacial) sea level rise in the channel region : Stone Point Site of Special Scientific Interest, Hampshire, England

Constraining the speed of sea level rise at the start of an interglacial is important to understanding the size of the ‘window of opportunity’ available for hominin migration. This is particularly important during the last interglacial when there is no evidence for significant hominin occupation anywhere in Britain. There are very few finer grained fossiliferous sequences in the Channel region that can be used to constrain sea level rise and they are preserved only to the north of the Channel, in England. Of these, the sequence at Stone Point SSSI is by far the most complete. Data from this sequence has been previously reported, and discussed at a Quaternary Research Association Field Meeting, where a number of further questions were raised that necessitated further data generation. In this paper, we report new data from this sequence – thin section analysis, isotopic determinations on ostracod shells, new Optical Stimulated Luminescence ages and Amino Acid Recem analyses. These show early sea level rise in this sequence, starting during the pre-temperate vegetation zone IpI, but no early warming. The implications of this almost certainly last interglacial sequence for the human colonisation of Britain and our understanding of the stratigraphic relationship of interglacial estuarine deposits with their related fluvial terrace sequences is explored

AD51B in Familial Breast Cancer

Common variation on 14q24.1, close to RAD51B, has been associated with breast cancer: rs999737 and rs2588809 with the risk of female breast cancer and rs1314913 with the risk of male breast cancer. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of RAD51B variants in breast cancer predisposition, particularly in the context of familial breast cancer in Finland. We sequenced the coding region of RAD51B in 168 Finnish breast cancer patients from the Helsinki region for identification of possible recurrent founder mutations. In addition, we studied the known rs999737, rs2588809, and rs1314913 SNPs and RAD51B haplotypes in 44,791 breast cancer cases and 43,583 controls from 40 studies participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) that were genotyped on a custom chip (iCOGS). We identified one putatively pathogenic missense mutation c.541C&gt;T among the Finnish cancer patients and subsequently genotyped the mutation in additional breast cancer cases (n = 5259) and population controls (n = 3586) from Finland and Belarus. No significant association with breast cancer risk was seen in the meta-analysis of the Finnish datasets or in the large BCAC dataset. The association with previously identified risk variants rs999737, rs2588809, and rs1314913 was replicated among all breast cancer cases and also among familial cases in the BCAC dataset. The most significant association was observed for the haplotype carrying the risk-alleles of all the three SNPs both among all cases (odds ratio (OR): 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11–1.19, P = 8.88 x 10−16) and among familial cases (OR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.16–1.32, P = 6.19 x 10−11), compared to the haplotype with the respective protective alleles. Our results suggest that loss-of-function mutations in RAD51B are rare, but common variation at the RAD51B region is significantly associated with familial breast cancer risk

Early Ipswichian (last interglacial) sea level rise in the channel region : Stone Point Site of Special Scientific Interest, Hampshire, England

Constraining the speed of sea level rise at the start of an interglacial is important to understanding the size of the ‘window of opportunity’ available for hominin migration. This is particularly important during the last interglacial when there is no evidence for significant hominin occupation anywhere in Britain. There are very few finer grained fossiliferous sequences in the Channel region that can be used to constrain sea level rise and they are preserved only to the north of the Channel, in England. Of these, the sequence at Stone Point SSSI is by far the most complete. Data from this sequence has been previously reported, and discussed at a Quaternary Research Association Field Meeting, where a number of further questions were raised that necessitated further data generation. In this paper, we report new data from this sequence – thin section analysis, isotopic determinations on ostracod shells, new Optical Stimulated Luminescence ages and Amino Acid Recem analyses. These show early sea level rise in this sequence, starting during the pre-temperate vegetation zone IpI, but no early warming. The implications of this almost certainly last interglacial sequence for the human colonisation of Britain and our understanding of the stratigraphic relationship of interglacial estuarine deposits with their related fluvial terrace sequences is explored

Mendelian randomization and mediation analysis of leukocyte telomere length and risk of lung and head and neck cancers

Background: Evidence from observational studies of telomere length (TL) has been conflicting regarding its direction of association with cancer risk. We investigated the causal relevance of TL for lung and head and neck cancers using Mendelian Randomization (MR) and mediation analyses. Methods: We developed a novel genetic instrument for TL in chromosome 5p15.33, using variants identified through deep-sequencing, that were genotyped in 2051 cancer-free subjects. Next, we conducted an MR analysis of lung (16 396 cases, 13 013 controls) and head and neck cancer (4415 cases, 5013 controls) using eight genetic instruments for TL. Lastly, the 5p15.33 instrument and distinct 5p15.33 lung cancer risk loci were evaluated using two-sample mediation analysis, to quantify their direct and indirect, telomere-mediated, effects. Results: The multi-allelic 5p15.33 instrument explained 1.49-2.00% of TL variation in our data (p = 2.6 × 10-9). The MR analysis estimated that a 1000 base-pair increase in TL increases risk of lung cancer [odds ratio (OR) = 1.41, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20-1.65] and lung adenocarcinoma (OR = 1.92, 95% CI: 1.51-2.22), but not squamous lung carcinoma (OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.83-1.29) or head and neck cancers (OR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.70-1.05). Mediation analysis of the 5p15.33 instrument indicated an absence of direct effects on lung cancer risk (OR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.95-1.04). Analysis of distinct 5p15.33 susceptibility variants estimated that TL mediates up to 40% of the observed associations with lung cancer risk. Conclusions: Our findings support a causal role for long telomeres in lung cancer aetiology, particularly for adenocarcinoma, and demonstrate that telomere maintenance partially mediates the lung cancer susceptibility conferred by 5p15.33 loci