On clinical trial fragility due to patients lost to follow up

Wells ′ research was partially supported by NIH grant U19 AI111143, PCORI IHS-2017C3-8923, and Cornell’s Center for the Social Sciences project on Algorithms, Big Data, and Inequality.Background Clinical trials routinely have patients lost to follow up. We propose a methodology to understand their possible effect on the results of statistical tests by altering the concept of the fragility index to treat the outcomes of observed patients as fixed but incorporate the potential outcomes of patients lost to follow up as random and subject to modification. Methods We reanalyse the statistical results of three clinical trials on coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) to study the possible effect of patients lost to follow up on the treatment effect statistical significance. To do so, we introduce the LTFU-aware fragility indices as a measure of the robustness of a clinical trial’s statistical results with respect to patients lost to follow up. Results The analyses illustrate that clinical trials can either be completely robust to the outcomes of patients lost to follow up, extremely sensitive to the outcomes of patients lost to follow up, or in an intermediate state. When a clinical trial is in an intermediate state, the LTFU-aware fragility indices provide an interpretable measure to quantify the degree of fragility or robustness. Conclusions The LTFU-aware fragility indices allow researchers to rigorously explore the outcomes of patients who are lost to follow up, when their data is the appropriate kind. The LTFU-aware fragility indices are sensitivity measures in a way that the original fragility index is not.Peer reviewe

Can Disease Management Target Patients Most Likely to Generate High Costs? The Impact of Comorbidity

CONTEXT: Disease management programs are increasingly used to manage costs of patients with chronic disease. OBJECTIVE: We sought to examine the clinical characteristics and measure the health care expenditures of patients most likely to be targeted by disease management programs. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of prospectively obtained data. SETTING: A general medicine practice with both faculty and residents at an urban academic medical center. PARTICIPANTS: Five thousand eight hundred sixty-one patients enrolled in the practice for at least 1 year. MAIN OUTCOMES: Annual cost of diseases targeted by disease management. MEASUREMENTS: Patients’ clinical and demographic information were collected from a computer system used to manage patients. Data included diagnostic information, medications, and resource usage over 1 year. We looked at 10 common diseases targeted by disease management programs. RESULTS: Unadjusted annual median costs for chronic diseases ranged between $1,100 and$1,500. Congestive heart failure ($1,500), stroke ($1,500), diabetes ($1,500), and cancer ($1,400) were the most expensive. As comorbidity increased, annual adjusted costs increased exponentially. Those with comorbidity scores of 2 or more accounted for 26% of the population but 50% of the overall costs. CONCLUSIONS: Costs for individual chronic conditions vary within a relatively narrow range. However, the costs for patients with multiple coexisting medical conditions increase rapidly. Reducing health care costs will require focusing on patients with multiple comorbid diseases, not just single diseases. The overwhelming impact of comorbidity on costs raises significant concerns about the potential ability of disease management programs to limit the costs of care

A comparison between the APACHE II and Charlson Index Score for predicting hospital mortality in critically ill patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Risk adjustment and mortality prediction in studies of critical care are usually performed using acuity of illness scores, such as Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), which emphasize physiological derangement. Common risk adjustment systems used in administrative datasets, like the Charlson index, are entirely based on the presence of co-morbid illnesses. The purpose of this study was to compare the discriminative ability of the Charlson index to the APACHE II in predicting hospital mortality in adult multisystem ICU patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This was a population-based cohort design. The study sample consisted of adult (>17 years of age) residents of the Calgary Health Region admitted to a multisystem ICU between April 2002 and March 2004. Clinical data were collected prospectively and linked to hospital outcome data. Multiple regression analyses were used to compare the performance of APACHE II and the Charlson index.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The Charlson index was a poor predictor of mortality (C = 0.626). There was minimal difference between a baseline model containing age, sex and acute physiology score (C = 0.74) and models containing either chronic health points (C = 0.76) or Charlson index variations (C = 0.75, 0.76, 0.77). No important improvement in prediction occurred when the Charlson index was added to the full APACHE II model (C = 0.808 to C = 0.813).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The Charlson index does not perform as well as the APACHE II in predicting hospital mortality in ICU patients. However, when acuity of illness scores are unavailable or are not recorded in a standard way, the Charlson index might be considered as an alternative method of risk adjustment and therefore facilitate comparisons between intensive care units.</p

Long-Term Associations between Cholinesterase Inhibitors and Memantine Use and Health Outcomes among Patients with Alzheimer's Disease

OBJECTIVES: To examine in an observational study (1) relationships between cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEI) and memantine use, and functional and cognitive end points and mortality in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD); (2) relationships between other patient characteristics and these clinical end points; and (3) whether effects of the predictors change across time. METHODS: The authors conducted a multicenter, natural history study that included three university-based AD centers in the United States. A total of 201 patients diagnosed with probable AD with modified Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores >/= 30 at study entry were monitored annually for 6 years. Discrete-time hazard analyses were used to examine relationships between ChEI and memantine use during the previous 6 months reported at each assessment, and time to cognitive (MMSE score /= 10) end points and mortality. Analyses controlled for clinical characteristics, including baseline cognition, function, and comorbid conditions, and presence of extrapyramidal signs and psychiatric symptoms at each assessment interval. Demographic characteristics included baseline age, sex, education, and living arrangement at each assessment interval. RESULTS: ChEI use was associated with delayed time in reaching the functional end point and death. Memantine use was associated with delayed time to death. Different patient characteristics were associated with different clinical end points. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest long-term beneficial effects of ChEI and memantine use on patient outcomes. As for all observational cohort studies, observed relationships should not be interpreted as causal effects

The association of cardioprotective medications with pneumonia-related outcomes

Introduction: Little research has examined whether cardiovascular medications, other than statins, are associated with improved outcomes after pneumonia. Our aim was to examine the association between the use of beta-blockers, statins, angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs) with pneumonia-related outcomes. Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective population-based study on male patients ≥65 years of age hospitalized with pneumonia and who did not have pre-existing cardiac disease. Our primary analyses were multilevel regression models that examined the association between cardiovascular medication classes and either mortality or cardiovascular events. Results: Our cohort included 21,985 patients: 22% died within 90 days of admission, and 22% had a cardiac event within 90 days. The cardiovascular medications studied that were associated with decreased 90-day mortality included: statins (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.63-0.77), ACE inhibitors (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.74-0.91), and ARBs (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.44-0.77). However, none of the medications were significantly associated with decreased cardiovascular events. Discussion: While statins, ACE inhibitors, and ARBs, were associated with decreased mortality, there was no significant association with decreased CV events. These results indicate that this decreased mortality is unlikely due to their potential cardioprotective effects

The effect on survival of continuing chemotherapy to near death

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Overuse of anti-cancer therapy is an important quality-of-care issue. An aggressive approach to treatment can have negative effects on quality of life and cost, but its effect on survival is not well-defined.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare database, we identified 7,879 Medicare-enrolled patients aged 65 or older who died after having survived at least 3 months after diagnosis of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) between 1991 and 1999. We used Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, propensity scores, and instrumental variable analysis (IVA) to compare survival among patients who never received chemotherapy (n = 4,345), those who received standard chemotherapy but not within two weeks prior to death (n = 3,235), and those who were still receiving chemotherapy within 14 days of death (n = 299). Geographic variation in the application of chemotherapy was used as the instrument for IVA.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Receipt of chemotherapy was associated with a 2-month improvement in overall survival. However, based on three different statistical approaches, no additional survival benefit was evident from continuing chemotherapy within 14 days of death. Moreover, patients receiving chemotherapy near the end of life were much less likely to enter hospice (81% versus 51% with no chemotherapy and 52% with standard chemotherapy, P < 0.001), or were more likely to be admitted within only 3 days of death.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Continuing chemotherapy for advanced NSCLC until very near death is associated with a decreased likelihood of receiving hospice care but not prolonged survival. Oncologists should strive to discontinue chemotherapy as death approaches and encourage patients to enroll in hospice for better end-of-life palliative care.</p

Rapid Evolution of Coral Proteins Responsible for Interaction with the Environment

Christian R. Voolstra is with King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Shinichi Sunagawa is with the European Molecular Biology Laboratory, Mikhail V. Matz is with UT Austin, Till Bayer is with King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Manuel Aranda is with King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Emmanuel Buschiazzo is with University of California Merced, Michael K. DeSalvo is with University of California San Francisco, Erika Lindquist is with the Department of Energy Joint Genome Institute, Alina M. Szmant is with University of North Carolina Wilmington, Mary Alice Coffroth is with State University of New York at Buffalo, Mónica Medina is with University of California Merced.Background -- Corals worldwide are in decline due to climate change effects (e.g., rising seawater temperatures), pollution, and exploitation. The ability of corals to cope with these stressors in the long run depends on the evolvability of the underlying genetic networks and proteins, which remain largely unknown. A genome-wide scan for positively selected genes between related coral species can help to narrow down the search space considerably. Methodology/Principal Findings -- We screened a set of 2,604 putative orthologs from EST-based sequence datasets of the coral species Acropora millepora and Acropora palmata to determine the fraction and identity of proteins that may experience adaptive evolution. 7% of the orthologs show elevated rates of evolution. Taxonomically-restricted (i.e. lineage-specific) genes show a positive selection signature more frequently than genes that are found across many animal phyla. The class of proteins that displayed elevated evolutionary rates was significantly enriched for proteins involved in immunity and defense, reproduction, and sensory perception. We also found elevated rates of evolution in several other functional groups such as management of membrane vesicles, transmembrane transport of ions and organic molecules, cell adhesion, and oxidative stress response. Proteins in these processes might be related to the endosymbiotic relationship corals maintain with dinoflagellates in the genus Symbiodinium. Conclusion/Relevance -- This study provides a birds-eye view of the processes potentially underlying coral adaptation, which will serve as a foundation for future work to elucidate the rates, patterns, and mechanisms of corals' evolutionary response to global climate change.This work was supported by DEB-1054766 to M.V.M. and National Science Foundation grants IOS-0644438 and OCE-0313708 to M.M., and by a Collaborative Travel Fund to C.R.V. made by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST). The work conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy Joint Genome Institute is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Biological Sciences, School o

Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older. Methods Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health. Findings Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week. Interpretation Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.Peer reviewe