Good urban governance for health and well-being: a systematic review of barriers, facilitators and indicators

Rapid, unplanned urbanization is one of the major ecological and human challenges of the 21st century. UN Habitat predicts that, by 2050, nearly 70% of the world’s population will be living in cities, with disproportionate urban growth in low- and middle-income countries (10). While cities offer opportunities for employment and access to better public services, they also pose major health risks. Good local governance is critical for achieving the 2030 Agenda, and countries must strive to ensure that their cities are creating and improving their physical and social environments and their community resources to enable people to support each other and to develop to their maximum potential. Building on good practices in the WHO Healthy Cities programme, the World Health Organization (WHO) has identified health promotion in urban and local settings as critical to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and health equity. The WHO and UN Habitat 2016 Global report on urban health concluded that good urban governance – notably the role of city governments and strong leardership – is key to ensuring health equity and the health and well-being of their citizens (10). WHO contracted the Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Switzerland, to review the evidence on two issues that are central to health promotion: achieving good governance for health and well-being, understood as participatory governance built on multisectoral action and civic engagement; and measuring the impact of governance on urban health outcomes. The aim of the systematic review was to identify barriers to and facilitators of multisectoral action and civic engagement and to suggest validated indicators and tools for assessing the processes and outcomes of participatory governance for health, equity and well-being in urban settings from published scientific evidence. Findings from the systemic review informed the development of the Urban governance for health and well-being: a step-by-step approach to conducting operational research in cities

Isotemporal substitution of inactive time with physical activity and time in bed: cross-sectional associations with cardiometabolic health in the PREDIMEDPlus study

Background: This study explored the association between inactive time and measures of adiposity, clinical parameters, obesity, type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome components. It further examined the impact of reallocating inactive time to time in bed, light physical activity (LPA) or moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) on cardio-metabolic risk factors, including measures of adiposity and body composition, biochemical parameters and blood pressure in older adults. Methods: This is a cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from 2189 Caucasian men and women (age 55-75 years, BMI 27-40 Kg/m2) from the PREDIMED-Plus study (http://www.predimedplus.com/). All participants had ≥3 components of the metabolic syndrome. Inactive time, physical activity and time in bed were objectively determined using triaxial accelerometers GENEActiv during 7 days (ActivInsights Ltd., Kimbolton, United Kingdom). Multiple adjusted linear and logistic regression models were used. Isotemporal substitution regression modelling was performed to assess the relationship of replacing the amount of time spent in one activity for another, on each outcome, including measures of adiposity and body composition, biochemical parameters and blood pressure in older adults. Results: Inactive time was associated with indicators of obesity and the metabolic syndrome. Reallocating 30 min per day of inactive time to 30 min per day of time in bed was associated with lower BMI, waist circumference and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) (all p-values < 0.05). Reallocating 30 min per day of inactive time with 30 min per day of LPA or MVPA was associated with lower BMI, waist circumference, total fat, visceral adipose tissue, HbA1c, glucose, triglycerides, and higher body muscle mass and HDL cholesterol (all p-values < 0.05). Conclusions: Inactive time was associated with a poor cardio-metabolic profile. Isotemporal substitution of inactive time with MVPA and LPA or time in bed could have beneficial impact on cardio-metabolic health

Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries

Child growth failure (CGF), manifested as stunting, wasting, and underweight, is associated with high 5 mortality and increased risks of cognitive, physical, and metabolic impairments. Children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face the highest levels of CGF globally. Here we illustrate national and subnational variation of under-5 CGF indicators across LMICs, providing 2000–2017 annual estimates mapped at a high spatial resolution and aggregated to policy-relevant administrative units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the World Health 10 Organization’s ambitious Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and rates of progress exist across regions, countries, and within countries; our maps identify areas where high prevalence persists even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where subnational disparities exist and the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning locally 15 tailored interventions and efficient directing of resources to accelerate progress in reducing CGF and its health implications

Mapping disparities in education across low- and middle-income countries

Analyses of the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017 reveal inequalities across countries as well as within populations. Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health(1-3). As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting(4-6). The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness(7,8); however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health(9-11). Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017. Previous analyses have focused on geographical disparities in average attainment across Africa or for specific countries, but-to our knowledge-no analysis has examined the subnational proportions of individuals who completed specific levels of education across all low- and middle-income countries(12-14). By geolocating subnational data for more than 184 million person-years across 528 data sources, we precisely identify inequalities across geography as well as within populations.Peer reviewe

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dosespecific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in countryreported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81.6% [95% uncertainty interval 80.4-82 .7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39.9% [37.5-42.1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38.5% [35.4-41.3] in 1980 to 83.6% [82.3-84.8] in 2019). Third- dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42.6% (41.4-44.1) in 1980 to 79.8% (78.4-81.1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56.8 million (52.6-60. 9) to 14.5 million (13.4-15.9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Hyperoxemia and excess oxygen use in early acute respiratory distress syndrome : Insights from the LUNG SAFE study

Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s). Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.Background: Concerns exist regarding the prevalence and impact of unnecessary oxygen use in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We examined this issue in patients with ARDS enrolled in the Large observational study to UNderstand the Global impact of Severe Acute respiratory FailurE (LUNG SAFE) study. Methods: In this secondary analysis of the LUNG SAFE study, we wished to determine the prevalence and the outcomes associated with hyperoxemia on day 1, sustained hyperoxemia, and excessive oxygen use in patients with early ARDS. Patients who fulfilled criteria of ARDS on day 1 and day 2 of acute hypoxemic respiratory failure were categorized based on the presence of hyperoxemia (PaO2 > 100 mmHg) on day 1, sustained (i.e., present on day 1 and day 2) hyperoxemia, or excessive oxygen use (FIO2 ≥ 0.60 during hyperoxemia). Results: Of 2005 patients that met the inclusion criteria, 131 (6.5%) were hypoxemic (PaO2 < 55 mmHg), 607 (30%) had hyperoxemia on day 1, and 250 (12%) had sustained hyperoxemia. Excess FIO2 use occurred in 400 (66%) out of 607 patients with hyperoxemia. Excess FIO2 use decreased from day 1 to day 2 of ARDS, with most hyperoxemic patients on day 2 receiving relatively low FIO2. Multivariate analyses found no independent relationship between day 1 hyperoxemia, sustained hyperoxemia, or excess FIO2 use and adverse clinical outcomes. Mortality was 42% in patients with excess FIO2 use, compared to 39% in a propensity-matched sample of normoxemic (PaO2 55-100 mmHg) patients (P = 0.47). Conclusions: Hyperoxemia and excess oxygen use are both prevalent in early ARDS but are most often non-sustained. No relationship was found between hyperoxemia or excessive oxygen use and patient outcome in this cohort. Trial registration: LUNG-SAFE is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02010073publishersversionPeer reviewe

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Performance of the APACHE-II, SOFA and CURB-65 scales for prognosis of death in critically ill patients with covid-19 from intensive care units in a referral hospital in the city of Bogotá, in a retrospective cohort from 2020

Antecedentes: Después de un año y medio desde el inicio de la pandemia por el nuevo virus COVID-19, no se tiene información suficiente acerca de la asociación de las escalas predictivas de mortalidad empleadas usualmente en pacientes críticamente enfermos con ingreso a la Unidad de Cuidado Intensivo. Objetivo: El objetivo del estudio fue evaluar el desempeño pronóstico de muerte de las escalas APACHE-II, CURB-65 y SOFA en pacientes con infección por SARS CoV2 ingresados a la Unidad de Cuidado Intensivo en estado crítico del Hospital El Tunal - Subred Integrada de Servicios de Salud Sur. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio de pruebas diagnósticas, utilizando registros de pacientes críticamente enfermos con diagnóstico de COVID-19 en el Hospital El Tunal de la ciudad de Bogotá D.C entre septiembre y diciembre del año 2020. Se realizó un análisis descriptivo y tablas de frecuencia para caracterizar y resumir la información clínica de la población en estudio. Se construyeron curvas ROC (Receiver operating characteritic) para evaluar el desempeño de cada escala, se analizaron las áreas bajo la curva y se tomaron los puntos de corte con base en la sensibilidad y especificidad mejor evaluadas. Además, se hizo el cálculo del Índice de Youden, los valores predictivos positivo y negativo y la razón de verosimilitud positiva y negativa para cada una. Resultados: Se obtuvo como resultado que la escala SOFA tuvo un mejor desempeño pronóstico demostrando un AUC de 0,70 con IC95% entre 0,64-0,75 con una sensibilidad y especificidad de 83,6% y 52,2% respectivamente tomando como punto de corte 5.5. Respecto a la escala CURB-65 se obtuvo un AUC de 0,68 (IC95% 0,62-0,74) y una sensibilidad de 73,6% y una especificidad de 55,9% tomando un punto de corte de 1.5, por último, la escala APACHE-II demostró un AUC de 0,65 (IC95% 0,60-0,71), una sensibilidad del 51,6% y una especificidad de 70,2% para un punto de corte de 14.5.Background: After a year and a half since the start of the pandemic due to the new COVID-19 virus, there is insufficient information about the association of the predictive mortality scales usually used in critically ill patients admitted to the Care Unit Intensive. Objective: The objective of the study was to evaluate the prognostic performance of death of the APACHE-II, CURB-65 and SOFA scales in patients with SARS CoV2 infection admitted to the Intensive Care Unit in critical condition of Hospital El Tunal - Subred Integrated Health Services South. Methods: A study of diagnostic tests was carried out, using records of critically ill patients diagnosed with COVID-19 at El Tunal Hospital in the city of Bogotá D.C between September and December 2020. A descriptive analysis and frequency tables were performed to characterize and summarize the clinical information of the study population. ROC (Receiver operating feature) curves were constructed to evaluate the performance of each scale, the areas under the curve were analyzed and the cut-off points were taken based on the best evaluated sensitivity and specificity. In addition, the Youden Index, the positive and negative predictive values and the positive and negative likelihood ratio were calculated for each one. Results: It was obtained as a result that the SOFA scale had a better prognostic performance, demonstrating an acceptable AUC of 0.70 with a 95% CI between 0.64-0.75 with a sensitivity and specificity of 83.6% and 52.2% respectively. taking 5.5 as the cut-off point. Regarding the CURB-65 scale, an AUC of 0.68 (95% CI 0.62-0.74) and a sensitivity of 73.6% and a specificity of 55.9% were obtained, taking a cut-off point of 1.5. finally, the APACHE-II scale showed an AUC of 0.65 (95% CI 0.60-0.71), a sensitivity of 51.6% and a specificity of 70.2% for a cut-off point of 14.5

High Prevalence of Extensively Drug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii at a Children Hospital in Bolivia

Acinetobacter baumannii causes serious hospital-acquired infections and has been positioned as a priority organism by the World Health Organization. This study includes 36 A. baumannii isolates from a children hospital recovered between March 2014 and May 2015 in Cochabamba. The majority of the isolates were recovered from blood cultures (n = 10, 31.3%) and respiratory samples (n = 11, 34.4%); 53% of the patients were younger than 1 month old. Most of these isolates (n = 30, 80.6%) were extremely drug resistant and 8.3% were multidrug resistant. The circulation of 2 predominant clones including 25 isolates was determined by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis; 9 of the isolates were considered sporadic strains. The isolates grouped in the predominant clones and 5 of the unrelated sporadic strains were single-locus variant or double locus variant of clonal complex (CC110), belonging to international clone 7; the rest of the isolates were single-locus variant or double locus variant of another clonal complex. All the carbapenem-resistant isolates (88.9%) carried the bla(OXA-23-like) in a similar structure to Tn2008 located on the chromosome, and the aac(3)-IIa gene was present in all the aminoglycoside-resistant isolates (86.1%). Strong biofilm producers were found among these isolates, being the strongest ones those recovered from the hospital environment, catheter, blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) all of them belonged to the unrelated sporadic strains. The present study demonstrated the predominance and spread of closely related extremely drug-resistant A. baumannii isolates, what confers increasing risk to children and is of major concern because of the kind of infections and the lack of therapeutic alternatives to treat them