Infected pancreatic necrosis: outcomes and clinical predictors of mortality. A post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study

: The identification of high-risk patients in the early stages of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is critical, because it could help the clinicians to adopt more effective management strategies. We conducted a post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study to assess the association between clinical risk factors and mortality among adult patients with IPN. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify prognostic factors of mortality. We identified 247 consecutive patients with IPN hospitalised between January 2019 and December 2020. History of uncontrolled arterial hypertension (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.135-15.882; aOR 4.245), qSOFA (p = 0.005; 95% CI 1.359-5.879; aOR 2.828), renal failure (p = 0.022; 95% CI 1.138-5.442; aOR 2.489), and haemodynamic failure (p = 0.018; 95% CI 1.184-5.978; aOR 2.661), were identified as independent predictors of mortality in IPN patients. Cholangitis (p = 0.003; 95% CI 1.598-9.930; aOR 3.983), abdominal compartment syndrome (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.090-6.967; aOR 2.735), and gastrointestinal/intra-abdominal bleeding (p = 0.009; 95% CI 1.286-5.712; aOR 2.710) were independently associated with the risk of mortality. Upfront open surgical necrosectomy was strongly associated with the risk of mortality (p < 0.001; 95% CI 1.912-7.442; aOR 3.772), whereas endoscopic drainage of pancreatic necrosis (p = 0.018; 95% CI 0.138-0.834; aOR 0.339) and enteral nutrition (p = 0.003; 95% CI 0.143-0.716; aOR 0.320) were found as protective factors. Organ failure, acute cholangitis, and upfront open surgical necrosectomy were the most significant predictors of mortality. Our study confirmed that, even in a subgroup of particularly ill patients such as those with IPN, upfront open surgery should be avoided as much as possible. Study protocol registered in ClinicalTrials.Gov (I.D. Number NCT04747990)

A novel approach to a quantitative estimate of permeability from resistivity log measurements

Description of the material. In this paper a novel methodology for the estimation of the formation permeability, based on the integration of resistivity modeling and near wellbore modeling, is presented. Results obtained from the application to a real case is shown and discussed. The well log interpretation process provides a reliable estimation of the main petrophysical parameters such as porosity, fluid saturations and shale content, but the formation permeability is traditionally obtained through laboratory tests on plugs, at the scale of centimeters, and through well test interpretation, at the scale of tens or hundreds of meters. However, log measurements, and in particular resistivity logs, are strongly affected by the presence of the near wellbore zone invaded by mud filtrate. In turn, the extension of the invaded zone depends on formation properties and, in particular, on permeability. As a consequence, the resistivity measured by the tools (the apparent resistivity) has to be properly corrected through a resistivity modeling process to obtain the true formation resistivity and the geometry and resistivity of the invaded zone. Resistivity profiles within the invaded zone are function of fluid properties, petrophysical properties and rock-fluid interaction properties. The novelty of the approach is to numerically simulate the mud invasion phenomenon and match the resistivity profile provided by resistivity modeling to estimate the formation permeability. In the proposed methodology the match of the resistivity profile is obtained by integrating the near wellbore simulator with an optimization algorithm. Application. This novel approach was applied to a heterogeneous shaly-sand oil-bearing reservoir in the Norwegian offshore area. The analyzed sequence was characterized by a high degree of variations in the layers’ thickness, from meters down to below tools’ vertical resolution. A complete set of wireline logs were acquired in the considered well; several cores were cut and routine and special core analyses performed. Results, Observations, and Conclusions. First, a conventional petrophysical characterization was achieved and the appropriate resistivity corrections were calculated. Then, the modeled resistivity was used as the input for the optimization algorithm so as to obtain a continuous quantitative estimation of permeability in the entire logged interval. The results were satisfactorily compared to core measurements: in both thick conventional layers and thinner beds the match was very accurate. Significance of subject matter. The new approach provided a robust permeability estimate also in un-cored intervals and, more generally, can be used to predict permeability in un-cored and un-tested wells

Starlikeness of Libera transformation (II) (Applications of Complex Function Theory to Differential Equations)

The GEOTRACES Intermediate Data Product 2017 (IDP2017) is the second publicly available data product of the international GEOTRACES programme, and contains data measured and quality controlled before the end of 2016. The IDP2017 includes data from the Atlantic, Pacific, Arctic, Southern and Indian oceans, with about twice the data volume of the previous IDP2014. For the first time, the IDP2017 contains data for a large suite of biogeochemical parameters as well as aerosol and rain data characterising atmospheric trace element and isotope (TEI) sources. The TEI data in the IDP2017 are quality controlled by careful assessment of intercalibration results and multi-laboratory data comparisons at crossover stations. The IDP2017 consists of two parts: (1) a compilation of digital data for more than 450 TEIs as well as standard hydrographic parameters, and (2) the eGEOTRACES Electronic Atlas providing an on-line atlas that includes more than 590 section plots and 130 animated 3D scenes. The digital data are provided in several formats, including ASCII, Excel spreadsheet, netCDF, and Ocean Data View collection. Users can download the full data packages or make their own custom selections with a new on-line data extraction service. In addition to the actual data values, the IDP2017 also contains data quality flags and 1-σ data error values where available. Quality flags and error values are useful for data filtering and for statistical analysis. Metadata about data originators, analytical methods and original publications related to the data are linked in an easily accessible way. The eGEOTRACES Electronic Atlas is the visual representation of the IDP2017 as section plots and rotating 3D scenes. The basin-wide 3D scenes combine data from many cruises and provide quick overviews of large-scale tracer distributions. These 3D scenes provide geographical and bathymetric context that is crucial for the interpretation and assessment of tracer plumes near ocean margins or along ridges. The IDP2017 is the result of a truly international effort involving 326 researchers from 25 countries. This publication provides the critical reference for unpublished data, as well as for studies that make use of a large cross-section of data from the IDP2017. This article is part of a special issue entitled: Conway GEOTRACES - edited by Tim M. Conway, Tristan Horner, Yves Plancherel, and Aridane G. González

Timing of Cholecystectomy After Moderate and Severe Acute Biliary Pancreatitis

IMPORTANCE Considering the lack of equipoise regarding the timing of cholecystectomy in patients with moderately severe and severe acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP), it is critical to assess this issue.OBJECTIVE To assess the outcomes of early cholecystectomy (EC) in patients with moderately severe and severe ABP.DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS This cohort study retrospectively analyzed real-life data from the MANCTRA-1 (Compliance With Evidence-Based Clinical Guidelines in the Management of Acute Biliary Pancreatitis) data set, assessing 5304 consecutive patients hospitalized between January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2020, for ABP from 42 countries. A total of 3696 patients who were hospitalized for ABP and underwent cholecystectomy were included in the analysis; of these, 1202 underwent EC, defined as a cholecystectomy performed within 14 days of admission. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify prognostic factors of mortality and morbidity. Data analysis was performed from January to February 2023.MAIN OUTCOMES Mortality and morbidity after EC.RESULTS Of the 3696 patients (mean [SD] age, 58.5 [17.8] years; 1907 [51.5%] female) included in the analysis, 1202 (32.5%) underwent EC and 2494 (67.5%) underwent delayed cholecystectomy (DC). Overall, EC presented an increased risk of postoperative mortality (1.4% vs 0.1%, P <.001) and morbidity (7.7% vs 3.7%, P < .001) compared with DC. On the multivariable analysis, moderately severe and severe ABP were associated with increased mortality (odds ratio [OR], 361.46; 95% CI, 2.28-57 212.31; P = .02) and morbidity (OR, 2.64; 95% CI, 1.35-5.19; P = .005). In patients with moderately severe and severe ABP (n = 108), EC was associated with an increased risk of mortality (16 [15.6%] vs 0 [0%], P < .001), morbidity (30 [30.3%] vs 57 [5.5%], P < .001), bile leakage (2 [2.4%] vs 4 [0.4%], P = .02), and infections (12 [14.6%] vs 4 [0.4%], P < .001) compared with patients with mild ABP who underwent EC. In patients with moderately severe and severe ABP (n = 108), EC was associated with higher mortality (16 [15.6%] vs 2 [1.2%], P < .001), morbidity (30 [30.3%] vs 17 [10.3%], P < .001), and infections (12 [14.6%] vs 2 [1.3%], P < .001) compared with patients with moderately severe and severe ABP who underwent DC. On the multivariable analysis, the patient's age (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.02-1.36; P = .03) and American Society of Anesthesiologists score (OR, 5.91; 95% CI, 1.06-32.78; P = .04) were associated with mortality; severe complications of ABP were associated with increased mortality (OR, 50.04; 95% CI, 2.37-1058.01; P = .01) and morbidity (OR, 33.64; 95% CI, 3.19-354.73; P = .003).CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This cohort study's findings suggest that EC should be considered carefully in patients with moderately severe and severe ABP, as it was associated with increased postoperative mortality and morbidity. However, older and more fragile patients manifesting severe complications related to ABP should most likely not be considered for EC