Time-domain simulations for floating structures

In this thesis numerical and analytical investigations of wave-structure interactions are conducted within the linearised theory of water waves. The primary objective of the thesis was to develop a numerical time-domain solution method capable of simulating wave-structure interactions in three-dimensions involving axisymmetric structures. Although the solution method was developed for three-dimensional problems, many two-dimensional interactions were also simulated using an existing time-domain solution method. The numerical method for obtaining the solution of the time-domain water wave problem combines a cubic spline boundary element method (BEM) which yields a solution to the boundary integral equation with a time-stepping algorithm to advance the solution in time. The assumption regarding the axisymmetric nature of the structural geometry results in significant simplifications of the governing boundary integral equation and allows the existing BEM implementation for two-dimensional problems to be used as the basis for the solution method. The time-advancement algorithm was implemented such that radiation, scattering and floating body interactions can be simulated. Despite the focus on the time-domain investigations, the interactions were also considered in the frequency-domain to complement the time-domain results and for the purposes of verification. The analytical frequency-domain investigations are particularly relevant to highly resonant interactions where the response of the fluid and structure is related to the location of the resonance in the complex frequency plane. The complementary frequency-domain analysis was utilised in the development of a damped harmonic oscillator model to approximate the transient fluid motions in resonant scattering interactions. Passive trapped modes which can be supported by both fixed and floating structures were discovered in frequency-domain uniqueness investigations in the water-wave problem for a floating structure and their existence was confirmed in both two and three dimensions using time-domain excitation simulations. Finally, the time-domain BEM code was utilised to simulate various wave-structure interactions of practical interest.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Irregular wave runup statistics on plane beaches: application of a Boussinesq-type model incorporating a generating-absorbing sponge layer and second-order wave generation

Efficient absorption of reflected waves at the offshore boundary is a prerequisite for the accurate physical or theoretical modelling of long-duration irregular wave runup statistics at uniform, gently sloped beaches. This paper presents an implementation of the method suggested by Zhang et al. (2014) to achieve reflected wave absorption and simultaneous generation and propagation of incident waves in an existing numerical wave flume incorporating a moving boundary wavemaker. A generating–absorbing layer is incorporated within this 1DH hybrid Boussinesq-nonlinear shallow water equation model such that inshore-travelling incident waves, encompassing bound-wave structure approximately correct to second order, propagate unhindered while offshore-travelling reflected waves are absorbed. Once validated, the method is used to compile random wave runup statistics on uniform beach slopes broadly representative of dissipative, intermediate, and reflective beaches. Analyses of the individual runup time series, ensemble statistics and comparison to an empirical formula based on experimental runup data suggest that the main aspects of runup observed in the field are properly represented by the model. Existence of an upper limit on maximum runup is investigated using a simple extreme-value statistical analysis. Spectral saturation is examined by considering ensemble-averaged swash spectra for three representative beach slopes subject to incident waves with two different offshore significant wave heights. All spectra show f^−4 roll-off at high frequencies in agreement with many previous field studies. The effect is also investigated of the swash motions preceding one particular extreme runup event on the eventual maximum runup elevation

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Length-based assessment of an exploited coastal pike (Esox lucius) stock (Rügen, southern Baltic Sea) underscores the crucial relevance of growth and natural mortality for assessment outcomes

Many capture fisheries are considered data-poor, including the northern pike (Esox lucius) fishery in brackish lagoons in the southern Baltic Sea of Germany. The objective of our work was to assess the exploitation status of this stock, which is perceived by stakeholders to be in decline. Size structure data collected via rod-and-reelangling, fyke nets, and gill nets, and empirical estimates of growth, maturation, and fecundity from the lagoon stock were used to fit the Length-Based Spawning Potential Ratio (LB-SPR) model. Parameter uncertainty in von Bertalanffy growth estimates and natural mortality in the Baltic Sea pike stock was considered in sensitivity analyses. Assessment outcomes were sensitive to estimates of growth rate, particularly asymptotic length L infinity, instantaneous natural mortality M, and gear selectivity. Under-aging of old fish in scale-based age estimates overestimated terminal length and generated negative bias in the estimated stock status. Despite the sensitivity of assessment outcomes to life-history parameter choice, the stock status for the Baltic Sea consistently indicated a fully exploited situation with SPRs robustly above 0.4 and current fishing mortality rates between 0.2 and 0.4 yr-1. This result agreed with previous assessments using catch-only models. Our work serves as a reminder, that when using length-based methods, unbiased growth, and natural mortality estimates are critical for robust assessment outcomes

Composition, variability, and temporal stability of the intestinal microbiota of the elderly

Alterations in the human intestinal microbiota are linked to conditions including inflammatory bowel disease, irritable bowel syndrome, and obesity. The microbiota also undergoes substantial changes at the extremes of life, in infants and older people, the ramifications of which are still being explored. We applied pyrosequencing of over 40,000 16S rRNA gene V4 region amplicons per subject to characterize the fecal microbiota in 161 subjects aged 65 y and older and 9 younger control subjects. The microbiota of each individual subject constituted a unique profile that was separable from all others. In 68% of the individuals, the microbiota was dominated by phylum Bacteroides, with an average proportion of 57% across all 161 baseline samples. Phylum Firmicutes had an average proportion of 40%. The proportions of some phyla and genera associated with disease or health also varied dramatically, including Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, and Faecalibacteria. The core microbiota of elderly subjects was distinct from that previously established for younger adults, with a greater proportion of Bacteroides spp. and distinct abundance patterns of Clostridium groups. Analyses of 26 fecal microbiota datasets from 3-month follow-up samples indicated that in 85% of the subjects, the microbiota composition was more like the corresponding time-0 sample than any other dataset. We conclude that the fecal microbiota of the elderly shows temporal stability over limited time in the majority of subjects but is characterized by unusual phylum proportions and extreme variability