Calculating with Unreliable Data in Business Analytics Applications

The success of operational and managerial decisions depends on the reliability of the information provided to decision makers by the respective business analytics applications. Thus, in this research-in-progress paper, we explain how the mathematical foundations of the Algebra of Random Varia-bles (AoRV) can be used to extend the capability of business analytics applications to process and report unreliable data. First, we present the theoretical foundations of the AoRV in a concise way that is tailored to business analytics. Second, we present and discuss two example cases, in which we evaluate an application of the AoRV to real-world business analytics scenarios. Initial results from this first design-and-evaluate feedback loop show that the additional reliability information provided by the AoRV is of high value for decision makers, since it allows to predict how uncertain-ties in complex business analytics scenarios will interact. As the next step of this research project, we plan to test the potential of the AoRV to extend business analytics applications through another evaluation loop in a fully natural setting

resolving a 150 year old paternity case in mormon history using dtc autosomal dna testing of distant relatives

Abstract Although autosomal DNA testing has been available for a number of years, its use to reconstruct genetic profiles of people that lived centuries in the past is relatively recent and there are no published cases where it was employed to verify a kinship relation, likely to be an alleged paternity, that occurred one and a half century ago. DNA testing has already been employed to study the ancestry and posterity of Joseph Smith Jr., founder of the Latter-day Saint (Mormon) movement. Thanks to information found on the paternally inherited Y chromosome, a number of alleged paternities have been disproved, but obviously this analysis is not effective for alleged daughters. Likewise, his reconstructed mitogenome sequence, reported here for the first time, provides information about his maternal ancestry, but is useless in any paternity questions due to the strict maternal inheritance. Among all the children attributed to Joseph Smith Jr., Josephine Lyon, born in 1844, is perhaps the most frequently mentioned. In the current study, 56 individuals, mostly direct descendants of Joseph Smith Jr. and Josephine Lyon, had their autosomal DNA tested to verify Josephine's biological paternity. Nearly 600,000 autosomal SNPs from each subject were typed and detailed genealogical data were compiled. The absence of shared DNA between Josephine's grandson and Joseph Smith Jr.'s five great-grandchildren together with various amounts of autosomal DNA shared by the same individual with four other relatives of Windsor Lyon is a clear indication that Josephine was not related to the Smith, but to the Lyon's family. These inferences were also verified using kinship analyses and likelihood ratio calculations

High-resolution ultrasound visualization of the recurrent motor branch of the median nerve: normal and first pathological findings

Purpose To evaluate in a prospective study the possibility of visualization and diagnostic assessment of the recurrent motor branch (RMB) of the median nerve with high-resolution ultrasound (HRUS). Materials and methods HRUS with high-frequency probes (1822 MhZ) was used to locate the RMB in eight fresh cadaveric hands. To verify correct identification, ink-marking and consecutive dissection were performed. Measurement of the RMB maximum transverse-diameter, an evaluation of the origin from the median nerve and its course in relation to the transverse carpal ligament, was performed in both hands of ten healthy volunteers (n=20). Cases referred for HRUS examinations for suspected RMB lesions were also assessed. Results The RMB was clearly visible in all anatomical specimens and all volunteers. Dissection confirmed HRUS findings in all anatomical specimens. Mean RMB diameter in volunteers was 0.7 mm 0.1 (range, 0.61). The RMB originated from the radial aspect in 11 (55%), central aspect in eight (40%) and ulnar aspect in one (5%) hand. Nineteen (95%) extraligamentous courses and one (5%) subligamentous course were detected. Three patients with visible RMB abnormalities on HRUS were identified. Conclusion HRUS is able to reliably visualize the RMB, its variations and pathologies. Key Points Ultrasound allows visualization of the recurrent motor branch of the median nerve. Ultrasound may help clinicians to assess patients with recurrent motor branch pathologies. Patient management may become more appropriate and targeted therapy could be improved.(VLID)354468

Arrival of Paleo-Indians to the Southern Cone of South America: New Clues from Mitogenomes

With analyses of entire mitogenomes, studies of Native American mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation have entered the final phase of phylogenetic refinement: the dissection of the founding haplogroups into clades that arose in America during and after human arrival and spread. Ages and geographic distributions of these clades could provide novel clues on the colonization processes of the different regions of the double continent. As for the Southern Cone of South America, this approach has recently allowed the identification of two local clades (D1g and D1j) whose age estimates agree with the dating of the earliest archaeological sites in South America, indicating that Paleo-Indians might have reached that region from Beringia in less than 2000 years. In this study, we sequenced 46 mitogenomes belonging to two additional clades, termed B2i2 (former B2l) and C1b13, which were recently identified on the basis of mtDNA control-region data and whose geographical distributions appear to be restricted to Chile and Argentina. We confirm that their mutational motifs most likely arose in the Southern Cone region. However, the age estimate for B2i2 and C1b13 (11–13,000 years) appears to be younger than those of other local clades. The difference could reflect the different evolutionary origins of the distinct South American-specific sub-haplogroups, with some being already present, at different times and locations, at the very front of the expansion wave in South America, and others originating later in situ, when the tribalization process had already begun. A delayed origin of a few thousand years in one of the locally derived populations, possibly in the central part of Chile, would have limited the geographical and ethnic diffusion of B2i2 and explain the present-day occurrence that appears to be mainly confined to the Tehuelche and Araucanian-speaking grou

Human evolution in Siberia: from frozen bodies to ancient DNA

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Yakuts contrast strikingly with other populations from Siberia due to their cattle- and horse-breeding economy as well as their Turkic language. On the basis of ethnological and linguistic criteria as well as population genetic studies, it has been assumed that they originated from South Siberian populations. However, many questions regarding the origins of this intriguing population still need to be clarified (e.g. the precise origin of paternal lineages and the admixture rate with indigenous populations). This study attempts to better understand the origins of the Yakuts by performing genetic analyses on 58 mummified frozen bodies dated from the 15^thto the 19^thcentury, excavated from Yakutia (Eastern Siberia).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>High quality data were obtained for the autosomal STRs, Y-chromosomal STRs and SNPs and mtDNA due to exceptional sample preservation. A comparison with the same markers on seven museum specimens excavated 3 to 15 years ago showed significant differences in DNA quantity and quality. Direct access to ancient genetic data from these molecular markers combined with the archaeological evidence, demographical studies and comparisons with 166 contemporary individuals from the same location as the frozen bodies helped us to clarify the microevolution of this intriguing population.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We were able to trace the origins of the male lineages to a small group of horse-riders from the Cis-Baïkal area. Furthermore, mtDNA data showed that intermarriages between the first settlers with Evenks women led to the establishment of genetic characteristics during the 15^thcentury that are still observed today.</p

Helena’s Many Daughters: More Mitogenome Diversity behind the Most Common West Eurasian mtDNA Control Region Haplotype in an Extended Italian Population Sample

The high number of matching haplotypes of the most common mitochondrial (mt)DNA lineages are considered to be the greatest limitation for forensic applications. This study investigates the potential to solve this constraint by massively parallel sequencing a large number of mitogenomes that share the most common West Eurasian mtDNA control region (CR) haplotype motif (263G 315.1C 16519C). We augmented a pilot study on 29 to a total of 216 Italian mitogenomes that represents the largest set of the most common CR haplotype compiled from a single country. The extended population sample confirmed and extended the huge coding region diversity behind the most common CR motif. Complete mitogenome sequencing allowed for the detection of 163 distinct haplotypes, raising the power of discrimination from 0 (CR) to 99.6% (mitogenome). The mtDNAs were clustered into 61 named clades of haplogroup H and did not reveal phylogeographic trends within Italy. Rapid individualization approaches for investigative purposes are limited to the most frequent H clades of the dataset, viz. H1, H3, and H7

Homogenized rigid-plastic model for masonry walls subjected to impact

A simple rigid-plastic homogenization model for the analysis of masonry structures subjected to out-of-plane impact loads is presented. The objective is to propose a model characterized by a few material parameters, numerically inexpensive and very stable. Bricks and mortar joints are assumed rigid perfectly plastic and obeying an associated flow rule. In order to take into account the effect of brickwork texture, out-of-plane anisotropic masonry failure surfaces are obtained by means of a limit analysis approach, in which the unit cell is subdivided into a fixed number of sub-domains and layers along the thickness. A polynomial representation of micro-stress tensor components is utilized inside each sub-domain, assuring both stress tensor admissibility on a regular grid of points and continuity of the stress vector at the interfaces between contiguous sub-domains. Limited strength (frictional failure with compressive cap and tension cutoff) of brick-mortar interfaces is also considered in the model, thus allowing the reproduction of elementary cell failures due to the possible insufficient resistance of the bond between units and joints. Triangular Kirchhoff-Love elements with linear interpolation of the displacement field and constant moment within each element are used at a structural level. In this framework, a simple quadratic programming problem is obtained to analyze entire walls subjected to impacts. In order to test the capabilities of the approach proposed, two examples of technical interest are discussed, namely a running bond masonry wall constrained at three edges and subjected to a point impact load and a masonry square plate constrained at four edges and subjected to a distributed dynamic pressure simulating an air-blast. Only for the first example, numerical and experimental data are available, whereas for the second example insufficient information is at disposal from the literature. Comparisons with standard elastic-plastic procedures conducted by means of commercial FE codes are also provided. Despite the obvious approximations and limitations connected to the utilization of a rigid-plastic model for masonry, the approach proposed seems able to provide results in agreement with alternative expensive numerical elasto-plastic approaches, but requiring only negligible processing time. Therefore, the proposed simple tool can be used (in addition to more sophisticated but expensive non-linear procedures) by practitioners to have a fast estimation of masonry behavior subjected to impact

Mitochondrial DNA control region data from indigenous Angolan Khoe-San lineages

Here we provide 129 complete mitochondrial control region sequences of indigenous Khoe-San individuals from Angola to contribute to the still underrepresented pool of data from Africa. The dataset consists of exclusively African lineages with a majority of Sub-Saharan haplogroups. The probability of a random match was calculated as 0.09. The data set comprises 21 haplotypes occurring more than once and 17 unique haplotypes. Upon publication, haplotypes were incorporated in the EMPOP database (www.empop.org; EMP00069) [1].http://www.elsevier.com/locate/fsi

Lack of gene-language correlation due to reciprocal female but directional male admixture in Austronesians and non-Austronesians of East Timor

Nusa Tenggara, including East Timor, located at the crossroad between Island Southeast Asia, Near Oceania, and Australia, are characterized by a complex cultural structure harbouring speakers from two different major linguistic groups of different geographic origins (Austronesian (AN) and non-Austronesian (NAN)). This provides suitable possibilities to study gene-language relationship; however, previous studies from other parts of Nusa Tenggara reported conflicting evidence about gene-language correlation in this region. Aiming to investigate gene-language relationships including sex-mediated aspects in East Timor, we analysed the paternally inherited non-recombining part of the Y chromosome (NRY) and the maternally inherited mitochondrial (mt) DNA in a representative collection of AN-and NAN-speaking groups. Y-SNP (single-nucleotide polymorphism) data were newly generated for 273 samples and combined with previously established Y-STR (short tandem repeat) data of the same samples, and with previously established mtDNA data of 290 different samples with, however, very similar representation of geographic and linguistic coverage of the country. We found NRY and mtDNA haplogroups of previously described putative East/Southeast Asian (E/SEA) and Near Oceanian (NO) origins in both AN and NAN speakers of East Timor, albeit in different proportions, suggesting reciprocal genetic admixture between both linguistic groups for females, but directional admixture for males. Our data underline the dual genetic origin of East Timorese in E/SEA and NO, and highlight that substantial genetic admixtur

Unraveling the temperature dependence of the yield strength in single-crystal tungsten using atomistically-informed crystal plasticity calculations

We use a physically-based crystal plasticity model to predict the yield strength of body-centered cubic (bcc) tungsten single crystals subjected to uniaxial loading. Our model captures the thermally-activated character of screw dislocation motion and full non-Schmid effects, both of which are known to play a critical role in bcc plasticity. The model uses atomistic calculations as the sole source of constitutive information, with no parameter fitting of any kind to experimental data. Our results are in excellent agreement with experimental measurements of the yield stress as a function of temperature for a number of loading orientations. The validated methodology is then employed to calculate the temperature and strain-rate dependence of the yield strength for 231 crystallographic orientations within the standard stereographic triangle. We extract the strain-rate sensitivity of W crystals at different temperatures, and finish with the calculation of yield surfaces under biaxial loading conditions that can be used to define effective yield criteria for engineering design models