Decline of an Ecotone Forest: 50 Years of Demography in the Southern Boreal Forest

Variation in tree recruitment, mortality, and growth can alter forest community composition and structure. Because tree recruitment and mortality events are generally infrequent, long‐time scales are needed to confirm trends in forests. We performed a 50‐yr demographic census of a forest plot located on the southern edge of the Canadian boreal forest, a region currently experiencing forest die‐back in response to direct and indirect effects of recent severe droughts. Here, we show that over the last 30 yr biomass, basal area, growth, and recruitment have decreased along with a precipitous rise in mortality across the dominant tree species. The stand experienced periods of drought in combination with multiple outbreaks of forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria) and bark beetles. These insect disturbances interacted to increase mortality rates within the stand and decrease stand density. The interaction of endogenous and exogenous factors may shift forests in this region onto novel successional trajectories with the possibility of changes in regional vegetation type

Need-based resource allocation: different need indicators, different results?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A key policy objective in most publicly financed health care systems is to allocate resources according to need. Many jurisdictions implement this policy objective through need-based allocation models. To date, no gold standard exists for selecting need indicators. In the absence of a gold standard, sensitivity of the choice of need indicators is of concern. The primary objective of this study was to assess the consistency and plausibility of estimates of per capita relative need for health services across Canadian provinces based on different need indicators.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using the 2000/2001 Canadian Community Health Survey, we estimated relative per capita need for general practitioner, specialist, and hospital services by province using two approaches that incorporated a different set of need indicators: (1) demographics (age and sex), and (2) demographics, socioeconomic status, and health status. For both approaches, we first fitted regression models to estimate standard utilization of each of three types of health services by indicators of need. We defined the standard as average levels of utilization by needs indicators in the national sample. Subsequently, we estimated expected per capita utilization of each type of health services in each province. We compared these estimates of per capita relative need with premature mortality in each province to check their face validity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both approaches suggested that expected relative per capita need for three services vary across provinces. Different approaches, however, yielded different and inconsistent results. Moreover, provincial per capita relative need for the three health services did not always indicate the same direction of need suggested by premature mortality in each province. In particular, the two approaches suggested Newfoundland had less need than the Canadian average for all three services, but it had the highest premature mortality in Canada.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Substantial differences in need for health care may exist across Canadian provinces, but the direction and magnitude of differences depend on the need indicators used. Allocations from models using survey data lacked face validity for some provinces. These results call for the need to better understand the biases that may result from the use of survey data for resource allocation.</p

First narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves from known pulsars in advanced detector data

Spinning neutron stars asymmetric with respect to their rotation axis are potential sources of continuous gravitational waves for ground-based interferometric detectors. In the case of known pulsars a fully coherent search, based on matched filtering, which uses the position and rotational parameters obtained from electromagnetic observations, can be carried out. Matched filtering maximizes the signalto- noise (SNR) ratio, but a large sensitivity loss is expected in case of even a very small mismatch between the assumed and the true signal parameters. For this reason, narrow-band analysis methods have been developed, allowing a fully coherent search for gravitational waves from known pulsars over a fraction of a hertz and several spin-down values. In this paper we describe a narrow-band search of 11 pulsars using data from Advanced LIGO’s first observing run. Although we have found several initial outliers, further studies show no significant evidence for the presence of a gravitational wave signal. Finally, we have placed upper limits on the signal strain amplitude lower than the spin-down limit for 5 of the 11 targets over the bands searched; in the case of J1813-1749 the spin-down limit has been beaten for the first time. For an additional 3 targets, the median upper limit across the search bands is below the spin-down limit. This is the most sensitive narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves carried out so far

Factors associated with recurrence and survival length following relapse in patients with neuroblastoma

Background: Despite therapeutic advances, survival following relapse for neuroblastoma patients remains poor. We investigated clinical and biological factors associated with length of progression-free and overall survival following relapse in UK neuroblastoma patients. Methods: All cases of relapsed neuroblastoma, diagnosed during 1990-2010, were identified from four Paediatric Oncology principal treatment centres. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to calculate post-relapse overall survival (PROS), post-relapse progression-free survival (PRPFS) between relapse and further progression, and to investigate influencing factors. Results: One hundred eighty-nine cases were identified from case notes, 159 (84.0%) high risk and 17 (9.0%), unresectable, MYCN non-amplified (non-MNA) intermediate risk (IR). For high-risk patients diagnosed >2000, median PROS was 8.4 months (interquartile range (IQR)=3.0-17.4) and median PRPFS was 4.7 months (IQR=2.1-7.1). For IR, unresectable non-MNA patients, median PROS was 11.8 months (IQR 9.0-51.6) and 5-year PROS was 24% (95% CI 7-45%). MYCN amplified (MNA) disease and bone marrow metastases at diagnosis were independently associated with worse PROS for high-risk cases. Eighty percent of high-risk relapses occurred within 2 years of diagnosis compared with 50% of unresectable non-MNA IR disease. Conclusions: Patients with relapsed HR neuroblastomas should be treatment stratified according to MYCN status and PRPFS should be the primary endpoint in early phase clinical trials. The failure to salvage the majority of IR neuroblastoma is concerning, supporting investigation of intensification of upfront treatment regimens in this group to determine whether their use would diminish likelihood of relapse

PaCTS 1.0: a crowdsourced reporting standard for paleoclimate data

The progress of science is tied to the standardization of measurements, instruments, and data. This is especially true in the Big Data age, where analyzing large data volumes critically hinges on the data being standardized. Accordingly, the lack of community-sanctioned data standards in paleoclimatology has largely precluded the benefits of Big Data advances in the field. Building upon recent efforts to standardize the format and terminology of paleoclimate data, this article describes the Paleoclimate Community reporTing Standard (PaCTS), a crowdsourced reporting standard for such data. PaCTS captures which information should be included when reporting paleoclimate data, with the goal of maximizing the reuse value of paleoclimate datasets, particularly for synthesis work and comparison to climate model simulations. Initiated by the LinkedEarth project, the process to elicit a reporting standard involved an international workshop in 2016, various forms of digital community engagement over the next few years, and grassroots working groups. Participants in this process identified important properties across paleoclimate archives, in addition to the reporting of uncertainties and chronologies; they also identified archive-specific properties and distinguished reporting standards for new vs. legacy datasets. This work shows that at least 135 respondents overwhelmingly support a drastic increase in the amount of metadata accompanying paleoclimate datasets. Since such goals are at odds with present practices, we discuss a transparent path towards implementing or revising these recommendations in the near future, using both bottom-up and top-down approaches

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

GW170104: Observation of a 50-Solar-Mass Binary Black Hole Coalescence at Redshift 0.2

We describe the observation of GW170104, a gravitational-wave signal produced by the coalescence of a pair of stellar-mass black holes. The signal was measured on January 4, 2017 at 10: 11: 58.6 UTC by the twin advanced detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory during their second observing run, with a network signal-to-noise ratio of 13 and a false alarm rate less than 1 in 70 000 years. The inferred component black hole masses are 31.2(-6.0)(+8.4)M-circle dot and 19.4(-5.9)(+5.3)M(circle dot) (at the 90% credible level). The black hole spins are best constrained through measurement of the effective inspiral spin parameter, a mass-weighted combination of the spin components perpendicular to the orbital plane, chi(eff) = -0.12(-0.30)(+0.21) . This result implies that spin configurations with both component spins positively aligned with the orbital angular momentum are disfavored. The source luminosity distance is 880(-390)(+450) Mpc corresponding to a redshift of z = 0.18(-0.07)(+0.08) . We constrain the magnitude of modifications to the gravitational-wave dispersion relation and perform null tests of general relativity. Assuming that gravitons are dispersed in vacuum like massive particles, we bound the graviton mass to m(g) &lt;= 7.7 x 10(-23) eV/c(2). In all cases, we find that GW170104 is consistent with general relativity

First measurement of the Hubble Constant from a Dark Standard Siren using the Dark Energy Survey Galaxies and the LIGO/Virgo Binary–Black-hole Merger GW170814

International audienceWe present a multi-messenger measurement of the Hubble constant H 0 using the binary–black-hole merger GW170814 as a standard siren, combined with a photometric redshift catalog from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The luminosity distance is obtained from the gravitational wave signal detected by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO)/Virgo Collaboration (LVC) on 2017 August 14, and the redshift information is provided by the DES Year 3 data. Black hole mergers such as GW170814 are expected to lack bright electromagnetic emission to uniquely identify their host galaxies and build an object-by-object Hubble diagram. However, they are suitable for a statistical measurement, provided that a galaxy catalog of adequate depth and redshift completion is available. Here we present the first Hubble parameter measurement using a black hole merger. Our analysis results in , which is consistent with both SN Ia and cosmic microwave background measurements of the Hubble constant. The quoted 68% credible region comprises 60% of the uniform prior range [20, 140] km s−1 Mpc−1, and it depends on the assumed prior range. If we take a broader prior of [10, 220] km s−1 Mpc−1, we find (57% of the prior range). Although a weak constraint on the Hubble constant from a single event is expected using the dark siren method, a multifold increase in the LVC event rate is anticipated in the coming years and combinations of many sirens will lead to improved constraints on H 0

Sensitivity of the Advanced LIGO detectors at the beginning of gravitational wave astronomy

The Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO) consists of two widely separated 4 km laser interferometers designed to detect gravitational waves from distant astrophysical sources in the frequency range from 10 Hz to 10 kHz. The first observation run of the Advanced LIGO detectors started in September 2015 and ended in January 2016. A strain sensitivity of better than 10−23/Hz−−−√ was achieved around 100 Hz. Understanding both the fundamental and the technical noise sources was critical for increasing the astrophysical strain sensitivity. The average distance at which coalescing binary black hole systems with individual masses of 30  M⊙ could be detected above a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 8 was 1.3 Gpc, and the range for binary neutron star inspirals was about 75 Mpc. With respect to the initial detectors, the observable volume of the Universe increased by a factor 69 and 43, respectively. These improvements helped Advanced LIGO to detect the gravitational wave signal from the binary black hole coalescence, known as GW150914