Relative sea-level rise and the development of channel-fill and shallow-water sequences on Cape Cod, Massachusetts

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution January 1999Channel-fill sediments located in shallow-water off the south shore of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, provide a record of the late-Pleistocene and Holocene geological evolution in a post-glacial setting. Though conventionally difficult to sample adequately and anticipated to have low preservation potential, channel-fill sequences record in some detail differing relative sea-level and sedimentation processes. Two distinct channel-fill sequences record differing sequence stratigraphies, and hence different origins and post glacial histories. These sequences have accumulated in channels eroded into two different late-Pleistocene glacial units. The first fill-type was encountered in channels on the upper portions of the channel network in northern half of the study site. Channels in this portion of the channel system were incised into the late-Pleistocene glacial outwash substrate by spring sapping Uchupi and Oldale, 1994. The channel-fill sequences are comprised of a transgressive systems tract composed of a consistent sequence of coastal embayment and shoreline facies that have succeeded one another in response to Holocene relative sea-level rise. As relative sea-level flooded these paleo-channels, marsh environments were established in response to rising relative sea-level. With continued sea-level rise, the marsh environments migrated farther up channel. The exposed paleo-channels continued to flood, accommodating quiet water coastal embayments, likely protected from wave action by barrier beaches located more seaward. As relative sea-level rise continued, the coastline was driven landward over regions within the paleo-channels that formerly accommodated marsh and embayment sedimentation. The landward migration of the coastline was indicated by beach and barrier facies that covered the fine grained coastal embayment sediments. With further relative sea-level rise, beach and barrier settings were eroded as the shoreface migrated farther landward and nearshore marine deposition by wave and tidal flows ensued. Sedimentary environments similar to those recorded in the channels are found in modern coastal embayments on the south shore of Cape Cod. The second channel-fill type, which forms part of the southern and western portion of the channel network is more difficult to relate to the previously described sequence. The channels that contain fill were not adequately defined in this survey but were probably incised during the late-Pleistocene in response to ice melting and retreat. The sediments that make up this channel-fill are composed mainly of late-Pleistocene glaciolacustrine silts and clays. Sediments that make up the Holocene transgressive systems tract are limited to the upper meter of this channel sequence. They are composed of two sand units that reflect Holocene beach and nearshore sedimentation. The absence of coastal embayment and other paralic facies from the systems tract suggests that these channels did not accommodate protected embayments or that these sediments were not well preserved during the submergence of this region. Changes in the channel orientation or in the rate of relative sea-level rise may have contributed to this difference in sediment fill.While conducting this research the author was partially supported as a National Science Foundation Coastal Trainee WHOI # 85412900. Funding from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation WHOI # 25903900 and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Education Office WHOI # 45050 also supported this work

Cross-Shore Variation of Wind-Driven Flows on the Inner Shelf in Long Bay, South Carolina, United States

The cross-shore structure of subtidal flows on the inner shelf (7 to 12 m water depth) of Long Bay, South Carolina, a concave-shaped bay, is examined through the analysis of nearly 80 days of near-bed (1.7–2.2 m above bottom) current observations acquired during the spring and fall of 2001. In the spring and under northeastward winds (upwelling favorable) a two-layered flow was observed at depths greater than 10 m, while closer to the shore the currents were aligned with the wind. The two-layered flow is attributed to the presence of stratification, which has been observed under similar conditions in the South Atlantic Bight. When the wind stress was southwestward (downwelling favorable) and exceeded 0.1 N/m2, vertical mixing occurred, the two-layered flow pattern disappeared, and currents were directed alongshore with the wind at all sites and throughout the water column. In the fall, near-bed flows close to the shore (water depth \u3c7 m) were often reduced compared to or opposed those measured farther offshore under southwestward winds. A simplified analysis of the depth-averaged, alongshore momentum balance illustrates that the alongshore pressure gradient approached or exceeded the magnitude of the alongshore wind stress at the same time that the nearshore alongshore current opposed the wind stress and alongshore currents farther offshore. In addition, the analysis suggests that the wind stress is reduced closer to shore so that the alongshore pressure gradient is large enough to drive the flow against the wind

Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 120 (2015): 2452–2475, doi:10.1002/2015JF003671.Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Servic

Piping plovers demonstrate regional differences in nesting habitat selection patterns along the U. S. Atlantic coast

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Zeigler, S. L., Gutierrez, B. T., Hecht, A., Plant, N. G., & Sturdivant, E. J. Piping plovers demonstrate regional differences in nesting habitat selection patterns along the U. S. Atlantic coast. Ecosphere, 12(3), (2021): e03418, https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3418.Habitat studies that encompass a large portion of a species’ geographic distribution can explain characteristics that are either consistent or variable, further informing inference from more localized studies and improving management successes throughout the range. We identified landscape characteristics at Piping Plover nests at 21 sites distributed from Massachusetts to North Carolina and compared habitat selection patterns among the three designated U.S. recovery units (New England, New York–New Jersey, and Southern). Geomorphic setting, substrate type, and vegetation type and density were determined in situ at 928 Piping Plover nests (hereafter, used resource units) and 641 random points (available resource units). Elevation, beach width, Euclidean distance to ocean shoreline, and least-cost path distance to low-energy shorelines with moist substrates (commonly used as foraging habitat) were associated with used and available resource units using remotely sensed spatial data. We evaluated multivariate differences in habitat selection patterns by comparing recovery unit-specific Bayesian networks. We then further explored individual variables that drove disparities among Bayesian networks using resource selection ratios for categorical variables and Welch’s unequal variances t-tests for continuous variables. We found that relationships among variables and their connections to habitat selection were similar among recovery units, as seen in commonalities in Bayesian network structures. Furthermore, nesting Piping Plovers consistently selected mixed sand and shell, gravel, or cobble substrates as well as areas with sparse or no vegetation, irrespective of recovery unit. However, we observed significant differences among recovery units in the elevations, distances to ocean, and distances to low-energy shorelines of used resource units. Birds also exhibited increased selectivity for overwash habitats and for areas with access to low-energy shorelines along a latitudinal gradient from north to south. These results have important implications for conservation and management, including assessment of shoreline stabilization and habitat restoration planning as well as forecasting effects of climate change.Funding for this work was provided by the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service through a U.S. Geological Survey Mendenhall Fellowship to Zeigler. All other funding was through the U.S. Geological Survey (Zeigler, Gutierrez, Plant, and Sturdivant) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Hecht). Zeigler, Plant, and Hecht conceived and designed the study and secured funding

Bridging groundwater models and decision support with a Bayesian network

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Water Resources Research 49 (2013): 6459–6473, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20496.Resource managers need to make decisions to plan for future environmental conditions, particularly sea level rise, in the face of substantial uncertainty. Many interacting processes factor in to the decisions they face. Advances in process models and the quantification of uncertainty have made models a valuable tool for this purpose. Long-simulation runtimes and, often, numerical instability make linking process models impractical in many cases. A method for emulating the important connections between model input and forecasts, while propagating uncertainty, has the potential to provide a bridge between complicated numerical process models and the efficiency and stability needed for decision making. We explore this using a Bayesian network (BN) to emulate a groundwater flow model. We expand on previous approaches to validating a BN by calculating forecasting skill using cross validation of a groundwater model of Assateague Island in Virginia and Maryland, USA. This BN emulation was shown to capture the important groundwater-flow characteristics and uncertainty of the groundwater system because of its connection to island morphology and sea level. Forecast power metrics associated with the validation of multiple alternative BN designs guided the selection of an optimal level of BN complexity. Assateague island is an ideal test case for exploring a forecasting tool based on current conditions because the unique hydrogeomorphological variability of the island includes a range of settings indicative of past, current, and future conditions. The resulting BN is a valuable tool for exploring the response of groundwater conditions to sea level rise in decision support.This work was funded by the USGS Climate and Land Use Mission Area, Research and Development Program and the USGS Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Geology Program

Predicted sea-level rise-driven biogeomorphological changes on Fire Island, New York: implications for people and plovers

© The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Zeigler, S. L., Gutierrez, B. T., Lentz, E. E., Plant, N. G., Sturdivant, E. J., & Doran, K. S. Predicted sea-level rise-driven biogeomorphological changes on Fire Island, New York: implications for people and plovers. Earth’s Future, 10(4), (2022): e2021EF002436, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002436.Forecasting biogeomorphological conditions for barrier islands is critical for informing sea-level rise (SLR) planning, including management of coastal development and ecosystems. We combined five probabilistic models to predict SLR-driven changes and their implications on Fire Island, New York, by 2050. We predicted barrier island biogeomorphological conditions, dynamic landcover response, piping plover (Charadrius melodus) habitat availability, and probability of storm overwash under three scenarios of shoreline change (SLC) and compared results to observed 2014/2015 conditions. Scenarios assumed increasing rates of mean SLC from 0 to 4.71 m erosion per year. We observed uncertainty in several morphological predictions (e.g., beach width, dune height), suggesting decreasing confidence that Fire Island will evolve in response to SLR as it has in the past. Where most likely conditions could be determined, models predicted that Fire Island would become flatter, narrower, and more overwash-prone with increasing rates of SLC. Beach ecosystems were predicted to respond dynamically to SLR and migrate with the shoreline, while marshes lost the most area of any landcover type compared to 2014/2015 conditions. Such morphological changes may lead to increased flooding or breaching with coastal storms. However—although modest declines in piping plover habitat were observed with SLC—the dynamic response of beaches, flatter topography, and increased likelihood of overwash suggest storms could promote suitable conditions for nesting piping plovers above what our geomorphology models predict. Therefore, Fire Island may offer a conservation opportunity for coastal species that rely on early successional beach environments if natural overwash processes are encouraged.Funding for this work was provided by the U.S. Geological Survey's Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, with supplemental funding through the Disaster Relief Act

Effects of sea-level rise on barrier island groundwater system dynamics – ecohydrological implications

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Ecohydrology 7 (2014): 1064–1071, doi:10.1002/eco.1442.We used a numerical model to investigate how a barrier island groundwater system responds to increases of up to 60 cm in sea level. We found that a sea-level rise of 20 cm leads to substantial changes in the depth of the water table and the extent and depth of saltwater intrusion, which are key determinants in the establishment, distribution and succession of vegetation assemblages and habitat suitability in barrier islands ecosystems. In our simulations, increases in water-table height in areas with a shallow depth to water (or thin vadose zone) resulted in extensive groundwater inundation of land surface and a thinning of the underlying freshwater lens. We demonstrated the interdependence of the groundwater response to island morphology by evaluating changes at three sites. This interdependence can have a profound effect on ecosystem composition in these fragile coastal landscapes under long-term changing climatic conditions.We used a numerical model to investigate how a barrier island groundwater system responds to increases of up to 60 cm in sea level. We found that a sea-level rise of 20 cm leads to substantial changes in the depth of the water table and the extent and depth of saltwater intrusion, which are key determinants in the establishment, distribution and succession of vegetation assemblages and habitat suitability in barrier islands ecosystems. In our simulations, increases in water-table height in areas with a shallow depth to water (or thin vadose zone) resulted in extensive groundwater inundation of land surface and a thinning of the underlying freshwater lens. We demonstrated the interdependence of the groundwater response to island morphology by evaluating changes at three sites. This interdependence can have a profound effect on ecosystem composition in these fragile coastal landscapes under long-term changing climatic conditions. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA

Effect of the irrigation regime on the susceptibility of pepper and tomato to post-harvest proliferation of Salmonella enterica

Raw produce is increasingly recognized as a vehicle of human gastroenteritis. Non-typhoidal Salmonella, pathogenic Escherichia coli, and other human pathogens have been isolated from fruits and vegetables in the field and in the marketplace, which led to the hypothesis that these microbes can use plants as alternate hosts. However, environmental and physiological factors that facilitate persistence of these bacteria in the crop production environment and make produce more vulnerable to post-harvest contamination have not been fully delineated. This study tested the effect of irrigation regimes on the susceptibility of peppers and tomatoes to post-harvest proliferation of Salmonella. The experiments were carried out over three experimental seasons in two locations using seven strains of Salmonella. The irrigation regime per se did not affect susceptibility of tomatoes and peppers to post-harvest proliferation of Salmonella; however, in some of the seasons, irrigation regime-dependent differences were observed. Red peppers and tomatoes were more conducive to proliferation of Salmonella than green fruit in all seasons. Inter-seasonal differences were the strongest factors affecting proliferation of Salmonella in peppers

Search for Neutral Higgs Bosons in Events with Multiple Bottom Quarks at the Tevatron

The combination of searches performed by the CDF and D0 collaborations at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider for neutral Higgs bosons produced in association with b quarks is reported. The data, corresponding to 2.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity at CDF and 5.2 fb-1 at D0, have been collected in final states containing three or more b jets. Upper limits are set on the cross section multiplied by the branching ratio varying between 44 pb and 0.7 pb in the Higgs boson mass range 90 to 300 GeV, assuming production of a narrow scalar boson. Significant enhancements to the production of Higgs bosons can be found in theories beyond the standard model, for example in supersymmetry. The results are interpreted as upper limits in the parameter space of the minimal supersymmetric standard model in a benchmark scenario favoring this decay mode.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure

Measurement of the cross-section and charge asymmetry of WW bosons produced in proton-proton collisions at s=8\sqrt{s}=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents measurements of the $W^+ \rightarrow \mu^+\nu$ and $W^- \rightarrow \mu^-\nu$ cross-sections and the associated charge asymmetry as a function of the absolute pseudorapidity of the decay muon. The data were collected in proton--proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC and correspond to a total integrated luminosity of 20.2~\mbox{fb^{-1}}. The precision of the cross-section measurements varies between 0.8% to 1.5% as a function of the pseudorapidity, excluding the 1.9% uncertainty on the integrated luminosity. The charge asymmetry is measured with an uncertainty between 0.002 and 0.003. The results are compared with predictions based on next-to-next-to-leading-order calculations with various parton distribution functions and have the sensitivity to discriminate between them.Comment: 38 pages in total, author list starting page 22, 5 figures, 4 tables, submitted to EPJC. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at https://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/STDM-2017-13