Radical chemistry and ozone production at a UK coastal receptor site

OH, HO2, total and partially speciated RO2, and OH reactivity (kOH′) were measured during the July 2015 ICOZA (Integrated Chemistry of OZone in the Atmosphere) project that took place at a coastal site in north Norfolk, UK. Maximum measured daily OH, HO2 and total RO2 radical concentrations were in the range 2.6–17 × 106, 0.75–4.2 × 108 and 2.3–8.0 × 108 molec. cm−3, respectively. kOH′ ranged from 1.7 to 17.6 s−1, with a median value of 4.7 s−1. ICOZA data were split by wind direction to assess differences in the radical chemistry between air that had passed over the North Sea (NW–SE sectors) and that over major urban conurbations such as London (SW sector). A box model using the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv3.3.1) was in reasonable agreement with the OH measurements, but it overpredicted HO2 observations in NW–SE air in the afternoon by a factor of ∼ 2–3, although slightly better agreement was found for HO2 in SW air (factor of ∼ 1.4–2.0 underprediction). The box model severely underpredicted total RO2 observations in both NW–SE and SW air by factors of ∼ 8–9 on average. Measured radical and kOH′ levels and measurement–model ratios displayed strong dependences on NO mixing ratios, with the results suggesting that peroxy radical chemistry is not well understood under high-NOx conditions. The simultaneous measurement of OH, HO2, total RO2 and kOH′ was used to derive experimental (i.e. observationally determined) budgets for all radical species as well as total ROx (i.e. OH + HO2 + RO2). In NW–SE air, the ROx budget could be closed during the daytime within experimental uncertainty, but the rate of OH destruction exceeded the rate of OH production, and the rate of HO2 production greatly exceeded the rate of HO2 destruction, while the opposite was true for RO2. In SW air, the ROx budget analysis indicated missing daytime ROx sources, but the OH budget was balanced, and the same imbalances were found with the HO2 and RO2 budgets as in NW–SE air. For HO2 and RO2, the budget imbalances were most severe at high-NO mixing ratios, and the best agreement between HO2 and RO2 rates of production and destruction rates was found when the RO2 + NO rate coefficient was reduced by a factor of 5. A photostationary-steady-state (PSS) calculation underpredicted daytime OH in NW–SE air by ∼ 35 %, whereas agreement (∼ 15 %) was found within instrumental uncertainty (∼ 26 % at 2σ) in SW air. The rate of in situ ozone production (P(Ox)) was calculated from observations of ROx, NO and NO2 and compared to that calculated from MCM-modelled radical concentrations. The MCM-calculated P(Ox) significantly underpredicted the measurement-calculated P(Ox) in the morning, and the degree of underprediction was found to scale with NO.</p

Investigating the influence of product perception and geometric features

Research in emotional design and Kansei Engineering has shown that aesthetics play a significant role in the appeal of a product. This paper contributes to establishing a methodology to identify the relationships between perceptions, aesthetic features, desire to own and background of consumers. Surveys were conducted with 71 participants to gather their perceptions of 11 vase concepts. Advanced statistical analyses, including mixed models, were applied to allow generalisation of the results beyond the data sample. Significant relations between the desire to own a product and how the product is perceived were found (the desire to own was found to be related to beautiful, expensive, elegant, exciting, feminine, common and dynamic vases), as well as between the perceptions and the parameters describing the form of the vases (a vase was perceived as beautiful if it had many curved lines and was simple and tall). An automated mixed model analysis was conducted and revealed that general rules can be found between aesthetic features, perceptions and ownership, which can apply across gender and culture. The findings include design rules that link aesthetic features with perceptions. These contribute to research as guidelines for design synthesis and can either be implemented via shape grammars or parametric modelling approaches. These rules are also interesting for 3D printing applications, especially important when the consumer is the designer. Some of these design rules are linked to the desire to own a product, they have implications for industry, and they offer guidelines to creating attractive products that people want to own

On the interpretation of in situ HONO observations via photochemical steady state

A substantial body of recent literature has shown that boundary layer HONO levels are higher than can be explained by simple, established gas-phase chemistry, to an extent that implies that additional HONO sources represent a major, or the dominant, precursor to OH radicals in such environments. This conclusion may be reached by analysis of point observations of (for example) OH, NO and HONO, alongside photochemical parameters; however both NO and HONO have non-negligible atmospheric lifetimes, so these approaches may be problematic if substantial spatial heterogeneity exists. We report a new dataset of HONO, NOx and HOx observations recorded at an urban background location, which support the existence of additional HONO sources as determined elsewhere. We qualitatively evaluate the possible impacts of local heterogeneity using a series of idealised numerical model simulations, building upon the work of Lee et al. (J. Geophys. Res., 2013, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020341). The simulations illustrate the time required for photostationary state approaches to yield accurate results following substantial perturbations in the HOx/NOx/NOy chemistry, and the scope for bias to an inferred HONO source from NOx and VOC emissions in either a positive or negative sense, depending upon the air mass age following emission. To assess the extent to which these impacts may be present in actual measurements, we present exploratory spatially resolved measurements of HONO and NOx abundance obtained using a mobile instrumented laboratory. Measurements of the spatial variability of HONO in urban, suburban and rural environments show pronounced changes in abundance are found in proximity to major roads within urban areas, indicating that photo-stationary steady state (PSS) analyses in such areas are likely to be problematic. The measurements also show areas of very homogeneous HONO and NOx abundance in rural, and some suburban, regions, where the PSS approach is likely to be valid. Implications for future exploration of HONO production mechanisms are discussed

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Estimating the Extent of Human Trafficking from Ukraine: Final Report

This report summarizes the results of three studies done to estimate the extent of human trafficking from Ukraine. The studies were designed and reported by Dr. Ronald Hampton, principal investigator, Dr. Dwayne Ball, and (for one study) Ms. Julie Pennington, all of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln College of Business Administration Marketing Department. Our intent in doing multiple survey studies was to attempt to converge on an estimate. Each method used has different and inevitable threats to validity, and there is no perfect method for estimating the extent of such a rare, hidden, and sometimes shameful event. Therefore, by using methods with different threats, we hoped to counter the inevitable criticism of the validity of a single method, and make any estimates at which we arrived much more credible. The results from the three studies lead us to conclude that in the past three–five years, at least 22,000 Ukrainian citizens per year, and perhaps more than 36,000 per year, have gone abroad to work and have been enslaved in one form or another. The total number enslaved appears to be probably well in excess of 110,000. We believe the three survey methods are probably biased so as to produce somewhat smaller numbers of victims than the actual numbers, but are nonetheless the best that can be achieved. Hence we say, “Well in excess of.” The methods and results of the three studies are tabulated below. The methodology and results are further discussed in subsequent chapters on each study. One critical point to mention here is that we used a common conceptual definition of human trafficking in all three studies: a resident left his or her home country and was forced to work in a foreign country for little or no pay. This definition allows us to encompass not only forms of slavery that exist in the popular imagination, such as brothel slavery or certain kinds of factory and agricultural slavery, but also “wage slavery” or “debt bondage,” in which slaves are nominally paid, but usually never enough to buy their way out of a forced work environment. The first study was a survey of close families done in five Eastern European countries, including Ukraine. This study was relatively small given the fact that finding human trafficking victims is like finding needles in a haystack (1,345 close families in Ukraine were surveyed). In addition, when a member of each close family was asked to specify how many members of that family had been trafficked, no time frame was specified, although it would be reasonable to assume that most answers were relevant to the past five–ten years. This study estimated that about 110,000 Ukrainians had been trafficked abroad. For reasons discussed in the study report, we believe this estimate is low. The second study was a survey of “key informants.” This is quite different from surveying close families or households. In the surveys of close families and households (Studies 2 and 3), someone potentially close to a trafficking victim was asked if someone in the family or household had been trafficked. There may be a natural reluctance to answer such a question positively, even if someone close has been victimized. Thus, estimates are probably biased downward. In Study 2, however, the person asked was someone not of the household or family of a potential victim, but a knowledgeable person in the neighborhood or a head teacher from a child’s school. Thus, the reluctance to answer positively would probably be much lessened on the part of the informant. However, the knowledge of someone’s victim status might be lessened as well, due to social distance. Thus, we replaced one probable major source of bias with another. In the case of the key informant study, our best estimate of known trafficking victims in Ukraine was about 110,000 over five years. However, when we asked about strongly suspected victims, we estimated that there were another 110,000. Thus, we feel quite certain the number of victims over the past five years has exceeded 22,000 per year, and may possibly be 44,000 per year or higher. The third study yielded the most accurate estimates in terms of low sampling error, since it was a survey of over 13,000 households. Heads of households were interviewed and asked if anyone in the household had been trafficked over the past three years. From this survey, we obtained an estimate of about 111,000 persons trafficked over the past three years, or about 37,000 per year. This study has the same form of bias as the first study. That is, we are asking someone in a family or household to reveal that someone close to him or her was a trafficking victim. Thus, there is some unknown bias, almost certainly downward. So, looking across studies, we conclude that we can be fairly confident that at least 22,000 Ukrainians per year have been enslaved abroad over the past 3 to 5 years, possibly close to double that number. Most – perhaps no more than five or ten per cent, ever get help from the rehabilitation experts at NGOs. Subsequent to the Table below, each study will be discussed in turn with results first, and then an extensive discussion of methodology

Causes and consequences of grudge-holding in service relationships

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to place grudge-holding as a theoretical construct, measure it, and empirically place it in a nomological net and, additionally to discuss the consequences of grudge-holding in this research. Design/methodology/approach – A 2 × 2 scenario-based experiment was performed using 320 subjects, approximately 80 people per condition. The size of the exit barrier (high/low) and the effectiveness of the service recovery (good/poor) were varied between each scenario to determine changes in grudge-holding. Findings – Some consequences of grudge-holding are retaliation desire and communication avoidance. Although trust was tested in this research, and is still an important relationship variable, the results show that loss of trust cannot explain these outcomes in the presence of grudge-holding. Research limitations/implications – The results are limited by the fact that they are based on scenarios rather than real events. As such, they should be interpreted with some caution, and confirmed by later studies using cross-sectional or natural experimental data. Practical implications – A grudge-holding item should be included in routine customer satisfaction surveys, especially since grudgeholders are less likely to initiate communication. If grudge-holding is suspected, this paper suggests steps that managers can take to defuse grudges. Originality/value – The results of this research confirm that grudge-holding is an important construct of service relationships. Understanding grudge-holding is important because it predicts the desire for retaliation and the desire to avoid communication, both of which can increase expenses for the firm, and eventually lead to a mass exit of customers

Market Disintermediation and Producer Value Capture: The Case of Fair Trade Coffee in Nicaragua, Peru and Guatemala

Does participation in Fair Trade coffee marketing deliver added value to small-scale producers in developing countries? Is Fair Trade fair to producers as promised? The present study adopts a survey methodology designed to measure a combination of socio-economic impact indicators as well as measures particular to the Fair Trade coffee growing and marketing experience. We surveyed over 1200 small-scale coffee producers in Nicaragua, Peru, and Guatemala, of which about two-thirds participate in coffee marketing schemes sponsored by Transfair, USA. The study reports selected results related to production, marketing, material quality of life, education, health, and general wellbeing. Results show that producers participating in Transfair-supported Fair Trade cooperatives are indeed capturing more value than non-participants. This benefit transfer translates into modest but measurable improvements in quality of life, health, education, material comforts, social participation, technical and social assistance, and even sustainable agricultural practices. Consumers can have confidence that the Fair Trade scheme works. Retailers may be assured that by selling Fair Trade coffee they can defend the position that they are participating in a social change campaign

Estimating the Extent of Out-Migration Human Trafficking in Ukraine

The problem of estimating the true extent of human trafficking has yet to be well-solved. The study we will report used three estimation methods to estimate the number of persons trafficked out of the Ukraine. One was a small (N~1300) survey of randomly-selected families, another was a large (N~13,000) survey of households, and a third was a survey of key neighborhood informants. The three methods, while varying in questionnaire wording, sampling frame, and other methodological considerations, converged roughly on an estimate of the number of persons trafficked out of the Ukraine. The estimated number was much higher than statistics from social service agencies would indicate, suggesting that government anti-trafficking efforts should be accelerated. Further, against stereotype and expectations, 2/3 of those trafficked were men, suggesting that stereotypes of the typical trafficked person as a young woman sold into the sex trade may be seriously incomplete. The study offers methodologies that may be adaptable to other countries and contexts, and further suggests that a great deal of future work, both methodological and substantive, needs to be done in the area of estimation of the extent of human trafficking. [ The Download document (upper right) is a PDF file generated from the PowerPoint presentation; the Additional file (below) is the Powerpoint slides themselves.

A Market Analysis of Human Trafficking Systems

IF YOU UNDERSTAND A MARKETING SYSTEM, YOU CAN UNDERSTAND HOW TO DISRUPT IT. HUMAN TRAFFICKING AS A MARKETING SYSTEM Environments in which it operates Boundaries physical in terms of its inputs and outputs Nodes at which the “product” is recruited transported transformed exploited disposed of Roles of various players Exchanges Profit allocations Structures; governance Ownership flows Dynamic mutability Outcomes to all involved and society as a whole The Download button (at right) goes to a PDF version of the PowerPoint presentation. The PowerPoint slides are also attached (below) as a Related file

Estimating the Effect of Advertising in Bringing Victims to Rehabilitation

This study, done in Ukraine, tested the relationship between various methods of encouraging victims of trafficking to visit rehabilitation centers and ask for help, and the number of such victims that, in fact, asked for help. Using governmental administrative units (oblasts) as the unit of analysis, secondary data regarding the intensity of various types of publicity efforts over several years was collected. These effort intensities were such things as the number of persons reached by speeches to community groups, the number reached by radio ads, the number reached by outdoor advertising, and so forth. In addition, the number of victims coming forward for help in each oblast in each of those years was collected. Statistical models incorporating the intensity of various effort intensities were used to predict the number of victims coming forward. Radio advertising was shown to be the most effective method at bringing victims forward. It was also shown that the first year’s use of heavy use of radio public service advertising would be likely to bring forward a large “backlog” of victims, more than 10 times the number that normally come forward in a year. Continuing to make heavy use would probably bring forward about 3 times the usual number in years after that. This research can provide a method for determining how to spend public service dollars in bringing victims forward for rehabilitation