Rational Herding and The Spatial Clustering of Bank Branches: An Empirical Analysis

Bank Branches in NYC tend to be spatial clustered. For instance, of the 221 branches that were opened in NYC between July 1990 and June 1995-, 181 or 82 percent were opened in census tracts that already had at least one other branch. A number of recent theoretical papers have highlighted the possibility of rational herding in various arenas of economic activity. This paper explores empirically whether the apparent clustering of bank branches can be at least partially attributed to rational herding by banks. We find that even after controlling for the expected profitability of operating a branch in an area, branch openings follow other, existing branches. Moreover, such band wagon behavior appears to reduce branch profits. These findings, combined, suggest that herd behavior may be a factor in the branch location decisions of banks

A theory of change roadmap for universal health coverage in India

The Theory of Change (ToC) approach is one of the methodologies that the Lancet Citizens' Commission has chosen to build a roadmap to achieving Universal Healthcare (UHC) in India in the next 10 years. The work of the Citizens' Commission is organized around five workstreams: Finance, Human Resources for Health (HRH), Citizens' Engagement, Governance, and Technology. Five ToC workshops were conducted, one for each workstream. Individual workshop outputs were then brought together in two cross-workstream workshops where a sectoral Theory of Change for UHC was derived. Seventy-four participants, drawn from the Commission or invited for their expertise, and representing diverse stakeholders and sectors concerned with UHC, contributed to these workshops. A reimagined healthcare system achieves (1) enhanced transparency, accountability, and responsiveness; (2) improved quality of health services; (3) accessible, comprehensive, connected, and affordable care for all; (4) equitable, people-centered and safe health services; and (5) trust in the health system. For a mixed system like India's, achieving these high ideals will require all actors, public, private and civil society, to collaborate and bring about this transformation. During the consultation, paradigm shifts emerged, which were structural or systemic assumptions that were deemed necessary for the realization of all interventions. Critical points of consensus also emerged from the workshops, such as the need for citizen-centricity, greater efficiency in the use of public finances for health care, shifting to team-based managed care, empowerment of frontline health workers, the appropriate use of technology across all phases of patient care, and moving toward an articulation of positive health and wellbeing. Critical areas of contention that remained related to the role of the private sector, especially around financing and service delivery. Few issues for further consultation and research were noted, such as payment for performance across both public and private sectors, the use of accountability metrics across both public and private sectors, and the strategies for addressing structural barriers to realizing the proposed paradigm shifts. As the ToCs were developed in expert groups, citizens' consultations and consultations with administrative leaders were recommended to refine and ground the ToC, and therefore the roadmap to realize UHC, in people's lived reality

Induction EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors prior to definitive chemoradiotherapy in unresectable stage III EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer

INTRODUCTION: Increasing evidence suggests that consolidation durvalumab confers limited benefits for patients with stage III EGFR-mutated NSCLC. Induction or maintenance EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) added to concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) may optimize definitive treatment, but there are limited data supporting an induction TKI strategy. METHODS: We evaluated the efficacy and safety of induction EGFR TKIs administered before concurrent CRT in a retrospective series of patients with unresectable locally advanced EGFR-mutated NSCLC. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis was performed on a patient subset using CAPP-seq and correlated with outcomes. RESULTS: Of six patients, three received erlotinib and three osimertinib as induction therapy before CRT. Induction TKIs were administered for a median of 2.5 months. The objective response rate after induction TKI was 83%. One patient had a complete response to induction erlotinib and continued erlotinib for 4 years until local progression, which was treated with CRT. Two patients completed maintenance erlotinib after CRT, and another received consolidation durvalumab. After a median follow-up of 20.5 months, only one patient developed disease recurrence, with rising ctDNA coinciding with recurrence. ctDNA remained undetectable in patients without recurrence, or low-level in a patient receiving maintenance erlotinib. Adverse events were mild and expected, and none developed pneumonitis. CONCLUSION: Induction EGFR TKI before CRT may achieve high disease control rates with promising signs of durability in patients with locally advanced EGFR-mutated NSCLC. ctDNA analysis after CRT can correlate well with clinical outcomes. Prospective studies are needed to define the role of induction EGFR TKIs in this setting

Cell-free DNA ultra-low-pass whole genome sequencing to distinguish malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor (MPNST) from its benign precursor lesion: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: The leading cause of mortality for patients with the neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) cancer predisposition syndrome is the development of malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor (MPNST), an aggressive soft tissue sarcoma. In the setting of NF1, this cancer type frequently arises from within its common and benign precursor, plexiform neurofibroma (PN). Transformation from PN to MPNST is challenging to diagnose due to difficulties in distinguishing cross-sectional imaging results and intralesional heterogeneity resulting in biopsy sampling errors. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This multi-institutional study from the National Cancer Institute and Washington University in St. Louis used fragment size analysis and ultra-low-pass whole genome sequencing (ULP-WGS) of plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) to distinguish between MPNST and PN in patients with NF1. Following in silico enrichment for short cfDNA fragments and copy number analysis to estimate the fraction of plasma cfDNA originating from tumor (tumor fraction), we developed a noninvasive classifier that differentiates MPNST from PN with 86% pretreatment accuracy (91% specificity, 75% sensitivity) and 89% accuracy on serial analysis (91% specificity, 83% sensitivity). Healthy controls without NF1 (participants = 16, plasma samples = 16), PN (participants = 23, plasma samples = 23), and MPNST (participants = 14, plasma samples = 46) cohorts showed significant differences in tumor fraction in plasma (P = 0.001) as well as cfDNA fragment length (P \u3c 0.001) with MPNST samples harboring shorter fragments and being enriched for tumor-derived cfDNA relative to PN and healthy controls. No other covariates were significant on multivariate logistic regression. Mutational analysis demonstrated focal NF1 copy number loss in PN and MPNST patient plasma but not in healthy controls. Greater genomic instability including alterations associated with malignant transformation (focal copy number gains in chromosome arms 1q, 7p, 8q, 9q, and 17q; focal copy number losses in SUZ12, SMARCA2, CDKN2A/B, and chromosome arms 6p and 9p) was more prominently observed in MPNST plasma. Furthermore, the sum of longest tumor diameters (SLD) visualized by cross-sectional imaging correlated significantly with paired tumor fractions in plasma from MPNST patients (r = 0.39, P = 0.024). On serial analysis, tumor fraction levels in plasma dynamically correlated with treatment response to therapy and minimal residual disease (MRD) detection before relapse. Study limitations include a modest MPNST sample size despite accrual from 2 major referral centers for this rare malignancy, and lack of uniform treatment and imaging protocols representing a real-world cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Tumor fraction levels derived from cfDNA fragment size and copy number alteration analysis of plasma cfDNA using ULP-WGS significantly correlated with MPNST tumor burden, accurately distinguished MPNST from its benign PN precursor, and dynamically correlated with treatment response. In the future, our findings could form the basis for improved early cancer detection and monitoring in high-risk cancer-predisposed populations

Drivers of vaccine hesitancy among vulnerable populations in India: a cross-sectional multi-state study

ObjectivesIndia’s Covid-19 vaccination campaign engaged frontline workers (FLWs) to encourage vaccination among vulnerable segments of society. The FLWs report encountering a variety of barriers to vaccination and are often unsuccessful despite multiple visits to the same person. This cross-sectional study aims to pinpoint which of these barriers drive vaccine hesitancy among these segments, to help streamline vaccine communication, including FLW training, to better safeguard the population.MethodsTrained field enumerators contacted 893 individuals from five states across India and collected self-reported assessments of fifteen vaccination barriers (identified through discussions with FLWs), current vaccination status and future vaccination intentions, and covariates (demographics/comorbidities). Factor analysis of the fifteen barriers yielded two factors, one relating to fear of vaccine adverse effects and a second focused on peripheral concerns regarding the vaccine. The covariates significantly associated with current vaccination status were combined under a latent class regime to yield three cluster types (health access, financial strength, and demographics). The primary analysis examined the effect of the two barrier factors, the covariate clusters, and comorbidity, on current vaccination status and future vaccine intentions.ResultsFear of vaccine adverse effects was the primary driver of vaccine hesitancy; peripheral concerns frequently mentioned by the FLWs had no impact. Although cluster membership and the presence of comorbidities predicted vaccine uptake, neither of them materially altered the effect of fear of vaccine adverse effects with the following exception: fear of adverse effects was not associated with vaccination status among young Muslim men.ConclusionSubject to limitations, these results indicate that interventions to decrease vaccine hesitancy should focus primarily on fear associated with vaccines rather than spend resources trying to address peripheral concerns

Determining the contribution of IL33 and IL1RL1 polymorphisms to clinical and immunological features of asthma

Rationale: IL33 (9p24.1) and the IL33 receptor (IL1RL, 2q12) have been reproducibly identified as asthma susceptibility genes. However, the variants driving genetic associations are not yet fully defined. Using a population based birth cohort of 1059 children (Manchester Asthma and Allergy Study-(MAAS)) and 2536 adults with asthma (Genetics of Asthma Severity and Phenotypes- (GASP)) cohort we aimed to define genetic variants associated with clinical and immunological features of asthma. Methods: MAAS samples were genotyped using the Illumina 610 Quad array and imputed using 1000G reference panel. GASP samples were genotyped using two custom designed Affymetrix arrays (UK BiLEVE/UK Biobank array). Datasets were quality controlled for gender mismatches, outliers and relatedness. Data was generated for the IL33/IL1RL1 regions consisting of the genes and surrounding regions (chr9:5715785−6757983 & chr2:102427961−103468497) on the following traits: asthma diagnosis (MAAS), atopy, FEV1 (GASP) and FEV1/FVC (MAAS and GASP) as well as total blood eosinophil counts and serum total IgE levels (GASP). Variables for blood eosinophils and total IgE were log10 transformed. Analysis was carried out in PLINK using linear or logistic regression modelling including appropriate covariates for each trait. Results: In the MAAS cohort, we replicated the association of the IL33 locus with asthma diagnosis, identifying potentially two independent novel signals in that locus (rs10975398; P=1.70E-05; B= -1.519; MAF=0.32 and rs2890697; P=1.10E-04; B= -1.573; MAF=0.43). This association survived a Bonferroni correction for multiple testing. Although not surviving correction, an association was also identified for atopy in the IL1RL1 locus for MAAS (P=1.08E-04; MAF=0.48). In GASP we identified modest associations not in known LD with published loci (P-value range: 5.00E-02 – 7.60E-04) for FEV1, FEV1/FVC, atopy, blood eosinophils and total IgE in both the IL33 and IL1RL1 loci. Multiple SNPs presented nominal association (P<0.01) with more than one trait such as atopy & total IgE, providing supporting evidence for association. Conclusion: We replicated the association of IL33 region SNPs with asthma diagnosis in MAAS, highlighting the role of this locus in childhood asthma. Although trait association signals did not survive correction for multiple testing, nominal association across multiple phenotypes in GASP provides suggestive evidence of the role of the IL33/IL1RL1 genetic polymorphisms in determining clinical and immunological features of asthma

A genome wide association study of moderate-severe asthma in subjects from the United Kingdom

Rationale: Genome wide association studies (GWAS) in asthma have been successful in identifying disease susceptibility genes, however to date these have focused on mild disease. The genetic risk factors for moderate-severe asthma remain unclear. Aim: To identify common genetic variants affecting susceptibility to develop moderate-severe asthma. Methods: We identified asthma cases and controls from UK Biobank and additional cases from the Genetics of Asthma Severity & Phenotypes (GASP) cohort. A genome-wide association study was undertaken in 5,135 European ancestry individuals with moderate-severe asthma based on British Thoracic Society criteria 3 or above and 25,675 controls free from lung disease, allergic rhinitis and atopic dermatitis. After imputation (UK10K + 1000 genomes Phase 3) and standard quality control measures, the association of 33,771,858 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were tested. A logistic model of association of asthma status with imputed genotype dose was fitted using SNPTEST adjusted for ancestry principal components. Results: We identified 22 loci showing association (P < 5 × 10(-8)) including novel signals in or near D2HGDH, STAT6, HLA-B, CD247, GATA3, PDCD1LG2, ZNF652, RPAP3, MUC5AC and BACH2. Previously described asthma loci where replicated including signals in or near HLA-DQB1, TSLP, IL1RL1/IL18R1, CLEC16A, GATA3, IL33, SMAD3, SLC22A5/IL13, C11orf30, ZBTB10, IKZF3-ORMDL3 and IKZF4. Conclusion: The largest genome-wide association study of moderate-severe asthma to date was carried out and multiple novel loci where identified. These findings may provide new insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying this difficult to treat population

Minimal information for studies of extracellular vesicles 2018 (MISEV2018):a position statement of the International Society for Extracellular Vesicles and update of the MISEV2014 guidelines

The last decade has seen a sharp increase in the number of scientific publications describing physiological and pathological functions of extracellular vesicles (EVs), a collective term covering various subtypes of cell-released, membranous structures, called exosomes, microvesicles, microparticles, ectosomes, oncosomes, apoptotic bodies, and many other names. However, specific issues arise when working with these entities, whose size and amount often make them difficult to obtain as relatively pure preparations, and to characterize properly. The International Society for Extracellular Vesicles (ISEV) proposed Minimal Information for Studies of Extracellular Vesicles (“MISEV”) guidelines for the field in 2014. We now update these “MISEV2014” guidelines based on evolution of the collective knowledge in the last four years. An important point to consider is that ascribing a specific function to EVs in general, or to subtypes of EVs, requires reporting of specific information beyond mere description of function in a crude, potentially contaminated, and heterogeneous preparation. For example, claims that exosomes are endowed with exquisite and specific activities remain difficult to support experimentally, given our still limited knowledge of their specific molecular machineries of biogenesis and release, as compared with other biophysically similar EVs. The MISEV2018 guidelines include tables and outlines of suggested protocols and steps to follow to document specific EV-associated functional activities. Finally, a checklist is provided with summaries of key points

Dictator Games: A Meta Study

Over the last 25 years, more than a hundred dictator game experiments have been published. This meta study summarizes the evidence. Exploiting the fact that most experiments had to fix parameters they did not intend to test, the meta study explores a rich set of control variables for multivariate analysis. It shows that Tobit models (assuming that dictators would even want to take money) and hurdle models (assuming that the decision to give a positive amount is separate from the choice of amount, conditional on giving) outperform mere meta-regression and OLS