Combining a Matheuristic with Simulation for Risk Management of Stochastic Assets and Liabilities

Specially in the case of scenarios under uncertainty, the efficient management of risk when matching assets and liabilities is a relevant issue for most insurance companies. This paper considers such a scenario, where different assets can be aggregated to better match a liability (or the other way around), and the goal is to find the asset-liability assignments that maximises the overall benefit over a time horizon. To solve this stochastic optimisation problem, a simulation-optimisation methodology is proposed. We use integer programming to generate efficient asset-to-liability assignments, and Monte-Carlo simulation is employed to estimate the risk of failing to pay due liabilities. The simulation results allow us to set a safety margin parameter for the integer program, which encourage the generation of solutions satisfying a minimum reliability threshold. A series of computational experiments contribute to illustrate the proposed methodology and its utility in practical risk management.</jats:p

Meta-analysis on the effect of the N363S polymorphism of the glucocorticoid receptor gene (GRL) on human obesity

BACKGROUND: Since both excess glucocorticoid secretion and central obesity are clinical features of some obese patients, it is worthwhile to study a possible association of glucocorticoid receptor gene (GRL) variants with obesity. Previous studies have linked the N363S variant of the GRL gene to increased glucocorticoid effects such as higher body fat, a lower lean-body mass and a larger insulin response to dexamethasone. However, contradictory findings have been also reported about the association between this variant and obesity phenotypes. Individual studies may lack statistical power which may result in disparate results. This limitation can be overcome using meta-analytic techniques. METHODS: We conducted a meta-analysis to assess the association between the N363S polymorphism of the GRL gene and obesity risk. In addition to published research, we included also our own unpublished data -three novel case-control studies- in the meta-analysis The new case-control studies were conducted in German and Spanish children, adolescents and adults (total number of subjects: 1,117). Genotype was assessed by PCR-RFLP (Tsp509I). The final formal meta-analysis included a total number of 5,909 individuals. RESULTS: The meta-analysis revealed a higher body mass index (BMI) with an overall estimation of +0.18 kg/m(2 )(95% CI: +0.004 to +0.35) for homo-/heterozygous carriers of the 363S allele of the GRL gene in comparison to non-carriers. Moreover, differences in pooled BMI were statistically significant and positive when considering one-group studies from the literature in which participants had a BMI below 27 kg/m(2 )(+ 0.41 kg/m(2 )[95% CI +0.17 to +0.66]), but the differences in BMI were negative when only our novel data from younger (aged under 45) and normal weight subjects were pooled together (-0.50 kg/m(2 )[95% CI -0.84 to -0.17]). The overall risk for obesity for homo-/heterozygous carriers of the 363S allele was not statistically significant in the meta-analysis (pooled OR = 1.02; 95% CI: 0.56–1.87). CONCLUSION: Although certain genotypic effects could be population-specific, we conclude that there is no compelling evidence that the N363S polymorphism of the GRL gene is associated with either average BMI or obesity risk

HDP—A Novel Heme Detoxification Protein from the Malaria Parasite

When malaria parasites infect host red blood cells (RBC) and proteolyze hemoglobin, a unique, albeit poorly understood parasite-specific mechanism, detoxifies released heme into hemozoin (Hz). Here, we report the identification and characterization of a novel Plasmodium Heme Detoxification Protein (HDP) that is extremely potent in converting heme into Hz. HDP is functionally conserved across Plasmodium genus and its gene locus could not be disrupted. Once expressed, the parasite utilizes a circuitous “Outbound–Inbound” trafficking route by initially secreting HDP into the cytosol of infected RBC. A subsequent endocytosis of host cytosol (and hemoglobin) delivers HDP to the food vacuole (FV), the site of Hz formation. As Hz formation is critical for survival, involvement of HDP in this process suggests that it could be a malaria drug target

BUILDING BRIDGES FOR INNOVATION IN AGEING : SYNERGIES BETWEEN ACTION GROUPS OF THE EIP ON AHA

The Strategic Implementation Plan of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing (EIP on AHA) proposed six Action Groups. After almost three years of activity, many achievements have been obtained through commitments or collaborative work of the Action Groups. However, they have often worked in silos and, consequently, synergies between Action Groups have been proposed to strengthen the triple win of the EIP on AHA. The paper presents the methodology and current status of the Task Force on EIP on AHA synergies. Synergies are in line with the Action Groups' new Renovated Action Plan (2016-2018) to ensure that their future objectives are coherent and fully connected. The outcomes and impact of synergies are using the Monitoring and Assessment Framework for the EIP on AHA (MAFEIP). Eight proposals for synergies have been approved by the Task Force: Five cross-cutting synergies which can be used for all current and future synergies as they consider overarching domains (appropriate polypharmacy, citizen empowerment, teaching and coaching on AHA, deployment of synergies to EU regions, Responsible Research and Innovation), and three cross-cutting synergies focussing on current Action Group activities (falls, frailty, integrated care and chronic respiratory diseases).Peer reviewe

Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s41512-016-0001-y.]

Safety of intravenous ferric carboxymaltose versus oral iron in patients with nondialysis-dependent CKD: an analysis of the 1-year FIND-CKD trial.

Background: The evidence base regarding the safety of intravenous (IV) iron therapy in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is incomplete and largely based on small studies of relatively short duration. Methods: FIND-CKD (ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT00994318) was a 1-year, open-label, multicenter, prospective study of patients with nondialysis-dependent CKD, anemia and iron deficiency randomized (1:1:2) to IV ferric carboxymaltose (FCM), targeting higher (400-600 µg/L) or lower (100-200 µg/L) ferritin, or oral iron. A post hoc analysis of adverse event rates per 100 patient-years was performed to assess the safety of FCM versus oral iron over an extended period. Results: The safety population included 616 patients. The incidence of one or more adverse events was 91.0, 100.0 and 105.0 per 100 patient-years in the high ferritin FCM, low ferritin FCM and oral iron groups, respectively. The incidence of adverse events with a suspected relation to study drug was 15.9, 17.8 and 36.7 per 100 patient-years in the three groups; for serious adverse events, the incidence was 28.2, 27.9 and 24.3 per 100 patient-years. The incidence of cardiac disorders and infections was similar between groups. At least one ferritin level ≥800 µg/L occurred in 26.6% of high ferritin FCM patients, with no associated increase in adverse events. No patient with ferritin ≥800 µg/L discontinued the study drug due to adverse events. Estimated glomerular filtration rate remained the stable in all groups. Conclusions: These results further support the conclusion that correction of iron deficiency anemia with IV FCM is safe in patients with nondialysis-dependent CKD

Non-Standard Errors

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants

Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density

Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals &lt;1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data

Evidence synthesis to inform model-based cost-effectiveness evaluations of diagnostic tests: a methodological systematic review of health technology assessments

Background: Evaluations of diagnostic tests are challenging because of the indirect nature of their impact on patient outcomes. Model-based health economic evaluations of tests allow different types of evidence from various sources to be incorporated and enable cost-effectiveness estimates to be made beyond the duration of available study data. To parameterize a health-economic model fully, all the ways a test impacts on patient health must be quantified, including but not limited to diagnostic test accuracy. Methods: We assessed all UK NIHR HTA reports published May 2009-July 2015. Reports were included if they evaluated a diagnostic test, included a model-based health economic evaluation and included a systematic review and meta-analysis of test accuracy. From each eligible report we extracted information on the following topics: 1) what evidence aside from test accuracy was searched for and synthesised, 2) which methods were used to synthesise test accuracy evidence and how did the results inform the economic model, 3) how/whether threshold effects were explored, 4) how the potential dependency between multiple tests in a pathway was accounted for, and 5) for evaluations of tests targeted at the primary care setting, how evidence from differing healthcare settings was incorporated. Results: The bivariate or HSROC model was implemented in 20/22 reports that met all inclusion criteria. Test accuracy data for health economic modelling was obtained from meta-analyses completely in four reports, partially in fourteen reports and not at all in four reports. Only 2/7 reports that used a quantitative test gave clear threshold recommendations. All 22 reports explored the effect of uncertainty in accuracy parameters but most of those that used multiple tests did not allow for dependence between test results. 7/22 tests were potentially suitable for primary care but the majority found limited evidence on test accuracy in primary care settings. Conclusions: The uptake of appropriate meta-analysis methods for synthesising evidence on diagnostic test accuracy in UK NIHR HTAs has improved in recent years. Future research should focus on other evidence requirements for cost-effectiveness assessment, threshold effects for quantitative tests and the impact of multiple diagnostic tests

Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s41512-016-0001-y.]