Evaluation of effectiveness and efficiency of wild bird surveillance for avian influenza

This study aimed to assess which method of wild waterbird surveillance had the greatest probability of detecting highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 during a period of surveillance activity, the cost of each method was also considered. Lake Constance is a major wintering centre for migratory waterbirds and in 2006 it was the site of an HPAI H5N1 epidemic in wild birds. Avian influenza surveillance was conducted using harmonised approaches in the three countries around the lake, Austria, Germany and Switzerland, from 2006–2009. The surveillance consisted of testing birds sampled by the following methods: live birds caught in traps, birds killed by hunters, birds caught in fishing nets, dead birds found by the public and catching live Mute Swans (Cygnus olor); sentinel flocks of Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) were also used. Scenario tree analysis was performed including sensitivity analysis, followed by assessment of cost-effectiveness. Results indicated that if HPAI H5N1 was present at 1% prevalence and assuming HPAI resulted in bird mortality, sampling dead birds found by the public and sentinel surveillance were the most sensitive approaches despite residual uncertainty over some parameters. The uncertainty over the mortality of infected birds was an influential factor. Sampling birds found dead was most cost-effective, but strongly dependent on mortality and awareness of the public. Trapping live birds was least cost-effective. Based on our results, we recommend that future HPAI H5N1 surveillance around Lake Constance should prioritise sentinel surveillance and, if high mortality is expected, the testing of birds found dead

Assigning defined daily doses animal: a European multi-country experience for antimicrobial products authorized for usage in pigs

Objectives To establish a consensus defined daily dose animal (DDDA) for each active substance (AS) and administration route for porcine veterinary antimicrobial products authorized in four European countries, thus allowing cross-country quantification and comparison of antimicrobial usage data. Methods All veterinary antimicrobial products authorized for porcine use in Belgium, France, Germany and Sweden were listed for each administration route. First, separate DDDAs for each product were defined based on the recommended dosing for the main indication. Second, a consensus DDDA was established by taking the mean of the DDDAs for each product within a certain category of AS plus administration route. Results One-hundred-and-fifty-nine, 240, 281 and 50 antimicrobial products were licensed in Belgium, France, Germany and Sweden, respectively, in February 2013. Large variations were observed for dosage and treatment duration recommendations between products and between countries for the same ASs. Only 6.8% of feed/water and 29.4% of parenteral AS groups had the same recommended dosage in the four countries. Conclusions This study presents a consensus DDDA list for use in the quantification and comparison of antimicrobial consumption. Four major recommendations have been formulated: (i) urgent need for harmonization of authorization and recommended summary of product characteristics (SPC) dosages; (ii) expand the developed preliminary DDDA list to include all authorized veterinary medicinal products in all EU member states and for all (food-producing) animal species; (iii) improved accessibility of country-specific SPC data would be preferable; and (iv) statement of the ‘long-acting' duration of a product in the SP

Rüstungskontrolle für die nächste Bundesregierung: Ein Empfehlungsbericht

Die nächste Bundesregierung wird in den kommenden Jahren vor drei schwierigen rüstungskontrollpolitischen Aufgaben stehen. Erstens muss sie an neuen Initiativen und Vertragswerken für bisher nicht regulierte, technologisch neue Waffengattungen arbeiten. Zweitens muss sie dabei helfen, die von akuten Krisen bedrohten, noch bestehenden Rüstungskontrollregime vor dem endgültigen Scheitern zu bewahren. Drittens muss sie ihren Teil dazu beitragen, die bewährten Mechanismen internationaler Rüstungskontrolle im Hinblick auf neue Herausforderungen weiterzuentwickeln. Keine dieser drei Aufgaben kann von den jeweils anderen losgelöst bearbeitet werden. Vielmehr wird die nächste Bundesregierung für das Gelingen einer solch ambitionierten Rüstungskontrollpolitik über eine Reihe von Zielkonflikten entscheiden müssen. Der vorliegende Bericht gliedert sich in neun Kapitel, die, jedes für sich, ein übergeordnetes Thema der Rüstungskontrolle behandeln und dabei konkrete Handlungsempfehlungen für die künftige Bundesregierung geben. Die Kapitel behandeln: die nukleare Rüstungskontrolle in Europa, den Atomwaffenverbotsvertrag, das Atomabkommen mit dem Iran, die nukleare Abrüstungsverifikation, das Chemiewaffenübereinkommen, die Cybersicherheit, die Regulierung vollautonomer letaler Waffensysteme, die deutsche Debatte um die Beschaffung bewaffneter Drohnen und die konventionelle Rüstungskontrolle in Europa

Live bird markets characterization and trading network analysis in Mali: Implications for the surveillance and control of avian influenza and Newcastle disease

Live bird markets (LBMs) play an important role in the transmission of avian influenza (AI) and Newcastle disease (ND) viruses in poultry. Our study had two objectives: (1) characterizing LBMs in Mali with a focus on practices influencing the risk of transmission of AI and ND, and (2) identifying which LBMs should be targeted for surveillance and control based on properties of the live poultry trade network. Two surveys were conducted in 2009–2010: a descriptive study in all 96 LBMs of an area encompassing approximately 98% of the Malian poultry population and a network analysis study in Sikasso county, the main poultry supplying county for the capital city Bamako. Regarding LBMs' characteristics, risk factors for the presence of AI and ND viruses (being open every day, more than 2 days before a bird is sold, absence of zoning to segregate poultry-related work flow areas, waste removal or cleaning and disinfecting less frequently than on a daily basis, trash disposal of dead birds and absence of manure processing) were present in 80–100% of the LBMs. Furthermore, LBMs tended to have wide catchment areas because of consumers' preference for village poultry meat, thereby involving a large number of villages in their supply chain. In the poultry trade network from/to Sikasso county, 182 traders were involved and 685 links were recorded among 159 locations. The network had a heterogeneous degree distribution and four hubs were identified based on measures of in-degrees, out-degrees and betweenness: the markets of Medine and Wayerma and the fairs of Farakala and Niena. These results can be used to design biosecurity-improvement interventions and to optimize the prevention, surveillance and control of transmissible poultry diseases in Malian LBMs. Further studies should investigate potential drivers (seasonality, prices) of the poultry trade network and the acceptability of biosecurity and behavior-change recommendations in the Malian socio-cultural context. (Résumé d'auteur

A method of determining where to target surveillance efforts in heterogeneous epidemiological systems

The spread of pathogens into new environments poses a considerable threat to human, animal, and plant health, and by extension, human and animal wellbeing, ecosystem function, and agricultural productivity, worldwide. Early detection through effective surveillance is a key strategy to reduce the risk of their establishment. Whilst it is well established that statistical and economic considerations are of vital importance when planning surveillance efforts, it is also important to consider epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen in question—including heterogeneities within the epidemiological system itself. One of the most pronounced realisations of this heterogeneity is seen in the case of vector-borne pathogens, which spread between ‘hosts’ and ‘vectors’—with each group possessing distinct epidemiological characteristics. As a result, an important question when planning surveillance for emerging vector-borne pathogens is where to place sampling resources in order to detect the pathogen as early as possible. We answer this question by developing a statistical function which describes the probability distributions of the prevalences of infection at first detection in both hosts and vectors. We also show how this method can be adapted in order to maximise the probability of early detection of an emerging pathogen within imposed sample size and/or cost constraints, and demonstrate its application using two simple models of vector-borne citrus pathogens. Under the assumption of a linear cost function, we find that sampling costs are generally minimised when either hosts or vectors, but not both, are sampled