Modeling the non-Markovian, non-stationary scaling dynamics of financial markets

A central problem of Quantitative Finance is that of formulating a probabilistic model of the time evolution of asset prices allowing reliable predictions on their future volatility. As in several natural phenomena, the predictions of such a model must be compared with the data of a single process realization in our records. In order to give statistical significance to such a comparison, assumptions of stationarity for some quantities extracted from the single historical time series, like the distribution of the returns over a given time interval, cannot be avoided. Such assumptions entail the risk of masking or misrepresenting non-stationarities of the underlying process, and of giving an incorrect account of its correlations. Here we overcome this difficulty by showing that five years of daily Euro/US-Dollar trading records in the about three hours following the New York market opening, provide a rich enough ensemble of histories. The statistics of this ensemble allows to propose and test an adequate model of the stochastic process driving the exchange rate. This turns out to be a non-Markovian, self-similar process with non-stationary returns. The empirical ensemble correlators are in agreement with the predictions of this model, which is constructed on the basis of the time-inhomogeneous, anomalous scaling obeyed by the return distribution.Comment: Throughout revision. 15 pages, 6 figures. Presented by A.L. Stella in a Talk at the "Econophysics - Kolkata V'' International Workshop, March 2010, Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics, Kolkata, Indi

Targeted massively parallel sequencing panel to diagnose genetic endocrine disorders in a tertiary hospital

Objectives: To analyze the efficiency of a multigenic targeted massively parallel sequencing panel related to endocrine disorders for molecular diagnosis of patients assisted in a tertiary hospital involved in the training of medical faculty. Material and methods: Retrospective analysis of the clinical diagnosis and genotype obtained from 272 patients in the Endocrine unit of a tertiary hospital was performed using a custom panel designed with 653 genes, most of them already associated with the phenotype (OMIM) and some candidate genes that englobes developmental, metabolic and adrenal diseases. The enriched DNA libraries were sequenced in NextSeq 500. Variants found were then classified according to ACMG/AMP criteria, with Varsome and InterVar. Results: Three runs were performed; the mean coverage depth of the targeted regions in panel sequencing data was 249×, with at least 96.3% of the sequenced bases being covered more than 20-fold. The authors identified 66 LP/P variants (24%) and 27 VUS (10%). Considering the solved cases, 49 have developmental diseases, 12 have metabolic and 5 have adrenal diseases. Conclusion: The application of a multigenic panel aids the training of medical faculty in an academic hospital by showing the picture of the molecular pathways behind each disorder. This may be particularly helpful in developmental disease cases. A precise genetic etiology provides an improvement in understanding the disease, guides decisions about prevention or treatment, and allows genetic counseling

European Headache Federation recommendations for placebo and nocebo terminology

Background and aim Despite recent publications, practitioners remain unfamiliar with the current terminology related to the placebo and nocebo phenomena observed in clinical trials and practice, nor with the factors that modulate them. To cover the gap, the European Headache Federation appointed a panel of experts to clarify the terms associated with the use of placebo in clinical trials. Methods The working group identified relevant questions and agreed upon recommendations. Because no data were required to ans

Bronchoscopist's perception of the quality of the single-use bronchoscope (Ambu aScope4™) in selected bronchoscopies: a multicenter study in 21 Spanish pulmonology services

Background: The disposable bronchoscope is an excellent alternative to face the problem of SARS-CoV-2 and other cross infections, but the bronchoscopist's perception of its quality has not been evaluated. Methods: To evaluate the quality of the Ambu-aScope4 disposable bronchoscope, we carried out a cross-sectional study in 21 Spanish pulmonology services. We use a standardized questionnaire completed by the bronchoscopists at the end of each bronchoscopy. The variables were described with absolute and relative frequencies, measures of central tendency and dispersion depending on their nature. The existence of learning curves was evaluated by CUSUM analysis. Results: The most frequent indications in 300 included bronchoscopies was bronchial aspiration in 69.3% and the median duration of these was 9.1 min. The route of entry was nasal in 47.2% and oral in 34.1%. The average score for ease of use, image, and aspiration quality was 80/100. All the planned techniques were performed in 94.9% and the bronchoscopist was satisfied in 96.6% of the bronchoscopies. They highlighted the portability and immediacy of the aScope4TM to start the procedure in 99.3%, the possibility of taking and storing images in 99.3%. The CUSUM analysis showed average scores > 70/100 from the first procedure and from the 9th procedure more than 80% of the scores exceeded the 80/100 score. Conclusions: The aScope4™ scored well for ease of use, imaging, and aspiration. We found a learning curve with excellent scores from the 9th procedure. Bronchoscopists highlighted its portability, immediacy of use and the possibility of taking and storing images

''Consensus on placebo and nocebo effects connects science with practice:'' reply to ''questioning the consensus on placebo and nocebo effects”

Health and self-regulatio

What should clinicians tell patients about placebo and nocebo effects? Practical considerations based on expert consensus

Science Communication and Societ

The performance of the jet trigger for the ATLAS detector during 2011 data taking

The performance of the jet trigger for the ATLAS detector at the LHC during the 2011 data taking period is described. During 2011 the LHC provided proton–proton collisions with a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV and heavy ion collisions with a 2.76 TeV per nucleon–nucleon collision energy. The ATLAS trigger is a three level system designed to reduce the rate of events from the 40 MHz nominal maximum bunch crossing rate to the approximate 400 Hz which can be written to offline storage. The ATLAS jet trigger is the primary means for the online selection of events containing jets. Events are accepted by the trigger if they contain one or more jets above some transverse energy threshold. During 2011 data taking the jet trigger was fully efficient for jets with transverse energy above 25 GeV for triggers seeded randomly at Level 1. For triggers which require a jet to be identified at each of the three trigger levels, full efficiency is reached for offline jets with transverse energy above 60 GeV. Jets reconstructed in the final trigger level and corresponding to offline jets with transverse energy greater than 60 GeV, are reconstructed with a resolution in transverse energy with respect to offline jets, of better than 4 % in the central region and better than 2.5 % in the forward direction

NEOTROPICAL XENARTHRANS: a data set of occurrence of xenarthran species in the Neotropics

Xenarthrans – anteaters, sloths, and armadillos – have essential functions for ecosystem maintenance, such as insect control and nutrient cycling, playing key roles as ecosystem engineers. Because of habitat loss and fragmentation, hunting pressure, and conflicts with 24 domestic dogs, these species have been threatened locally, regionally, or even across their full distribution ranges. The Neotropics harbor 21 species of armadillos, ten anteaters, and six sloths. Our dataset includes the families Chlamyphoridae (13), Dasypodidae (7), Myrmecophagidae (3), Bradypodidae (4), and Megalonychidae (2). We have no occurrence data on Dasypus pilosus (Dasypodidae). Regarding Cyclopedidae, until recently, only one species was recognized, but new genetic studies have revealed that the group is represented by seven species. In this data-paper, we compiled a total of 42,528 records of 31 species, represented by occurrence and quantitative data, totaling 24,847 unique georeferenced records. The geographic range is from the south of the USA, Mexico, and Caribbean countries at the northern portion of the Neotropics, to its austral distribution in Argentina, Paraguay, Chile, and Uruguay. Regarding anteaters, Myrmecophaga tridactyla has the most records (n=5,941), and Cyclopes sp. has the fewest (n=240). The armadillo species with the most data is Dasypus novemcinctus (n=11,588), and the least recorded for Calyptophractus retusus (n=33). With regards to sloth species, Bradypus variegatus has the most records (n=962), and Bradypus pygmaeus has the fewest (n=12). Our main objective with Neotropical Xenarthrans is to make occurrence and quantitative data available to facilitate more ecological research, particularly if we integrate the xenarthran data with other datasets of Neotropical Series which will become available very soon (i.e. Neotropical Carnivores, Neotropical Invasive Mammals, and Neotropical Hunters and Dogs). Therefore, studies on trophic cascades, hunting pressure, habitat loss, fragmentation effects, species invasion, and climate change effects will be possible with the Neotropical Xenarthrans dataset

Measurement of the View the tt production cross-section using eμ events with b-tagged jets in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper describes a measurement of the inclusive top quark pair production cross-section (σtt¯) with a data sample of 3.2 fb−1 of proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 13 TeV, collected in 2015 by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. This measurement uses events with an opposite-charge electron–muon pair in the final state. Jets containing b-quarks are tagged using an algorithm based on track impact parameters and reconstructed secondary vertices. The numbers of events with exactly one and exactly two b-tagged jets are counted and used to determine simultaneously σtt¯ and the efficiency to reconstruct and b-tag a jet from a top quark decay, thereby minimising the associated systematic uncertainties. The cross-section is measured to be: σtt¯ = 818 ± 8 (stat) ± 27 (syst) ± 19 (lumi) ± 12 (beam) pb, where the four uncertainties arise from data statistics, experimental and theoretical systematic effects, the integrated luminosity and the LHC beam energy, giving a total relative uncertainty of 4.4%. The result is consistent with theoretical QCD calculations at next-to-next-to-leading order. A fiducial measurement corresponding to the experimental acceptance of the leptons is also presented