Empirical Information Criteria for Time Series Forecasting Model Selection

In this paper, we propose a new Empirical Information Criterion (EIC) for model selection which penalizes the likelihood of the data by a function of the number of parameters in the model. It is designed to be used where there are a large number of time series to be forecast. However, a bootstrap version of the EIC can be used where there is a single time series to be forecast. The EIC provides a data-driven model selection tool that can be tuned to the particular forecasting task. We compare the EIC with other model selection criteria including Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz's Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The comparisons show that for the M3 forecasting competition data, the EIC outperforms both the AIC and BIC, particularly for longer forecast horizons. We also compare the criteria on simulated data and find that the EIC does better than existing criteria in that case also.Exponential smoothing; forecasting; information criteria; M3 competition; model selection.

A State Space Framework for Automatic Forecasting Using Exponential Smoothing Methods.

We provide a new approach to automatic business forecasting based on an extended range of exponential smoothing methods. Each method in our taxonomy of exponential smoothing methods can be shown to be equivalent to the forecasts obtained from a state space model. This allows (1) the easy calculation of the likelihood, the AIC and other model selection criteria; (2) the computation of prediction intervals for each method; and (3) random simulation from the underlying state space model. We demonstrate the methods by applying them to the data from the M-competition on the M3-competition.Automatic forecasting, exponential smoothing, prediction intervals, state space models.

The Role of Oestrogen Receptor Beta (ERβ) in the Aetiology and Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Introduction: Challenges facing the treatment of type 2 diabetes necessitate the search for agents which act via alternative pathways to provide better therapeutic outcomes. Recently, an increasing body of evidence implicates the activation of oestrogen receptors (ERα and ERβ) in the development and treatment of underlying conditions in type 2 diabetes. This article summarizes available evidence for the involvement of oestrogen receptors in insulin secretion, insulin resistance as well as glucose uptake and highlights the potential of ERβ as a therapeutic target. Background: Recent studies indicate an association between the activation of each of the isoforms of ER and recent findings indicate that ERβ shows promise as a potential target for antidiabetic drugs. In vitro and in vivo studies in receptor knockout mice indicate beneficial actions of selective agonists of ERβ receptor and underscore its therapeutic potential. Conclusion: Studies are needed to further elucidate the exact mechanism underlying the role of ERβ activation as a therapeutic approach in the management of type 2 diabetes

The Sudbury Neutrino Observatory

The Sudbury Neutrino Observatory is a second generation water Cherenkov detector designed to determine whether the currently observed solar neutrino deficit is a result of neutrino oscillations. The detector is unique in its use of D2O as a detection medium, permitting it to make a solar model-independent test of the neutrino oscillation hypothesis by comparison of the charged- and neutral-current interaction rates. In this paper the physical properties, construction, and preliminary operation of the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory are described. Data and predicted operating parameters are provided whenever possible.Comment: 58 pages, 12 figures, submitted to Nucl. Inst. Meth. Uses elsart and epsf style files. For additional information about SNO see http://www.sno.phy.queensu.ca . This version has some new reference

Search for dark matter produced in association with a hadronically decaying vector boson in pp collisions at sqrt (s) = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is presented for dark matter produced in association with a hadronically decaying W or Z boson using 3.2 fb−1 of pp collisions at View the MathML sources=13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Events with a hadronic jet compatible with a W or Z boson and with large missing transverse momentum are analysed. The data are consistent with the Standard Model predictions and are interpreted in terms of both an effective field theory and a simplified model containing dark matter

Measurement of the top quark mass in the tt→ dilepton channel from √s = 8 TeV ATLAS data

The top quark mass is measured in the tt¯ → dilepton channel (lepton = e,μ) using ATLAS data recorded in the year 2012 at the LHC. The data were taken at a proton proton centre-of-mass energy of √s = 8 TeV and correspond to an integrated luminosity of about 20.2 fb−1. Exploiting the template method, and using the distribution of invariant masses of lepton–b-jet pairs, the top quark mass is measured to be mtop = 172.99±0.41 (stat) ±0.74 (syst) GeV, with a total uncertainty of 0.84 GeV. Finally, a combination with previous ATLAS mtop measurements from √s = 7 TeV data in the tt¯ → dilepton and tt¯ → lepton + jets channels results in mtop = 172.84±0.34 (stat)±0.61 (syst) GeV, with a total uncertainty of 0.70 GeV

Search for the Standard Model Higgs boson decaying into bb¯ produced in association with top quarks decaying hadronically in pp collisions at √s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for Higgs boson production in association with a pair of top quarks (tt¯ H) is performed, where the Higgs boson decays to bb¯, and both top quarks decay hadronically. The data used correspond to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1 of pp collisions at √s = 8 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The search selects events with at least six energetic jets and uses a boosted decision tree algorithm to discriminate between signal and Standard Model background. The dominant multijet background is estimated using a dedicated data-driven technique. For a Higgs boson mass of 125 GeV, an upper limit of 6.4 (5.4) times the Standard Model cross section is observed (expected) at 95% confidence level. The best-fit value for the signal strength is μ = 1.6 ± 2.6 times the Standard Model expectation for mH = 125 GeV. Combining all tt¯ H searches carried out by ATLAS at √s = 8 and 7 TeV, an observed (expected) upper limit of 3.1 (1.4) times the Standard Model expectation is obtained at 95% confidence level, with a signal strength μ = 1.7 ± 0.8

Search for heavy long-lived charged R-hadrons with the ATLAS detector in 3.2 fb(-1) of proton-proton collision data at root s=13 TeV

A search for heavy long-lived charged R-hadrons is reported using a data sample corresponding to 3.2 fb−1 of proton–proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV collected by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. The search is based on observables related to large ionisation losses and slow propagation velocities, which are signatures of heavy charged particles travelling significantly slower than the speed of light. No significant deviations from the expected background are observed. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are provided on the production cross section of long-lived R-hadrons in the mass range from 600 GeV to 2000 GeV and gluino, bottom and top squark masses are excluded up to 1580 GeV, 805 GeV and 890 GeV, respectively