An empirical study on the various stock market prediction methods

Investment in the stock market is one of the much-admired investment actions. However, prediction of the stock market has remained a hard task because of the non-linearity exhibited. The non-linearity is due to multiple affecting factors such as global economy, political situations, sector performance, economic numbers, foreign institution investment, domestic institution investment, and so on. A proper set of such representative factors must be analyzed to make an efficient prediction model. Marginal improvement of prediction accuracy can be gainful for investors. This review provides a detailed analysis of research papers presenting stock market prediction techniques. These techniques are assessed in the time series analysis and sentiment analysis section. A detailed discussion on research gaps and issues is presented. The reviewed articles are analyzed based on the use of prediction techniques, optimization algorithms, feature selection methods, datasets, toolset, evaluation matrices, and input parameters. The techniques are further investigated to analyze relations of prediction methods with feature selection algorithm, datasets, feature selection methods, and input parameters. In addition, major problems raised in the present techniques are also discussed. This survey will provide researchers with deeper insight into various aspects of current stock market prediction methods

Remote sensing and machine learning for prediction of wheat growth in precision agriculture applications

This thesis focuses on remote sensing and machine learning for prediction of wheat growth in precision agriculture applications. Agriculture is the primary productive force, which plays an important role in human activities. Wheat, as one of the essential sources of food, is also a widely planted crop. The impact of weather and climate and some other uncertain factors on wheat production is crucial. Therefore, it is necessary to use reliable and statistically reasonable models for crop growth and yield prediction based on vegetation index variables and other factors, so as to obtain reliable prediction for efficient production. Applying certain artificial intelligence algorithms to the precision agriculture can significantly improve the efficiency of traditional agriculture in crop planting and reduce the consumption of human and natural resources. Remote sensing can objectively, accurately and timely provide a large amount of information for ecological environment and crop growth in agriculture applications. By combining the image and spectral data obtained by remote sensing technology with machine learning, information about wheat growth, yield and insect pests can be learned in time. This thesis focuses on its applications in agriculture, particularly using effective prediction models such as the back propagation neural network and some optimisation algorithms for predicting wheat growth, yield and aphid. The work presented in this thesis address the issues of wheat growth prediction, yield assessment and aphid validation by model building and machine learning algorithm optimisation by means of remote sensing data. Specifically, the following objectives are defined: 1. Analyse multiple vegetation indexes based on the TM 1-4 band data of Landsat satellite and use regression algorithms to train the models and predict wheat growth; 2. Analyse and compare multiple vegetation indexes models by means of spectral data and use regression algorithms to predict wheat yield; 3. Combine spectral vegetation indexes and multiple regression algorithms to predict wheat aphid; 4. Use accurate evaluation criteria for validating the efficacy of the various algorithms. In this thesis, the remote sensing data from the satellite has been applied instead of the airborne-based remote sensing data. Based on the TM 1-4 band image data of Landsat satellite, multiple vegetation indexes were used as the input of regression algorithms. After that, four kinds of regression algorithms such as the multiple linear regression (MR) algorithm, back propagation network (BPNN) algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA) optimised BPNN algorithm and particle swarm optimisation (PSO) optimised BPNN algorithm were used to train the model and predict the LAI and SPAD. The prediction results of each algorithm were compared with the ground truth information collected by hand held instruments on the ground. The relationship between wheat yield and spectral data has been studied. Based on the BPNN algorithm, four kinds of models such as visible hyperspectral index (VHI) model, hyperspectral vegetation index (HVI) model, difference hyperspectral index (DHI) model and normalized hyperspectral index (NHI) model have been utilized to predict wheat yield. For the optimal NHI model, three regression algorithms such as back propagation network (BPNN) algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA) optimised BPNN algorithm and particle swarm optimisation (PSO) optimised BPNN algorithm, were compared to predict wheat yield, and RMSE and R-square of the three algorithms were compared and analysed. Finally, the relationship between wheat aphid and spectral data has been investigated. Nine vegetation indexes related to aphid have been estimated from spectral data as the input of regression algorithms. Five kinds of regression algorithms such as back propagation network (BPNN) algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA) optimised BPNN algorithm, particle swarm optimisation (PSO) optimised BPNN algorithm, ant colony (ACO) optimisation algorithm optimised BPNN algorithm and cuckoo search (CS) optimised BPNN algorithm have been implemented to predict wheat aphid, which was validated with the ground truth information measured by hand-held instruments on the ground. The prediction results of each algorithm have been analysed. The major original contributions of this thesis are as follows: 1. A variety of optimisation algorithms are used to improve the regression analysis of the BPNN algorithm, so that the prediction results of each model for wheat growth, yield and aphid are more accurate. 2. The spectral characteristics of winter wheat canopy have been analysed. The correlation between the absorption band and the associated physical and chemical properties of crops, specially the red edge slope, with the crop yield and wheat aphid damage is established. 3. Adjusted MSE and un-centered R-square, as accurate evaluation criteria for practical applications, are used to compare the prediction results of the models under different dimensions of the observed data. 4. Improve algorithm training by using the cross-validation method to obtain reliable and stable models for the prediction of wheat growth, yield, and aphid. Through repeated cross-validation, a better model can be obtained in the last. Key word：Precision agriculture; BP network, wheat growth assessment; wheat yield prediction, wheat aphid validationThis thesis focuses on remote sensing and machine learning for prediction of wheat growth in precision agriculture applications. Agriculture is the primary productive force, which plays an important role in human activities. Wheat, as one of the essential sources of food, is also a widely planted crop. The impact of weather and climate and some other uncertain factors on wheat production is crucial. Therefore, it is necessary to use reliable and statistically reasonable models for crop growth and yield prediction based on vegetation index variables and other factors, so as to obtain reliable prediction for efficient production. Applying certain artificial intelligence algorithms to the precision agriculture can significantly improve the efficiency of traditional agriculture in crop planting and reduce the consumption of human and natural resources. Remote sensing can objectively, accurately and timely provide a large amount of information for ecological environment and crop growth in agriculture applications. By combining the image and spectral data obtained by remote sensing technology with machine learning, information about wheat growth, yield and insect pests can be learned in time. This thesis focuses on its applications in agriculture, particularly using effective prediction models such as the back propagation neural network and some optimisation algorithms for predicting wheat growth, yield and aphid. The work presented in this thesis address the issues of wheat growth prediction, yield assessment and aphid validation by model building and machine learning algorithm optimisation by means of remote sensing data. Specifically, the following objectives are defined: 1. Analyse multiple vegetation indexes based on the TM 1-4 band data of Landsat satellite and use regression algorithms to train the models and predict wheat growth; 2. Analyse and compare multiple vegetation indexes models by means of spectral data and use regression algorithms to predict wheat yield; 3. Combine spectral vegetation indexes and multiple regression algorithms to predict wheat aphid; 4. Use accurate evaluation criteria for validating the efficacy of the various algorithms. In this thesis, the remote sensing data from the satellite has been applied instead of the airborne-based remote sensing data. Based on the TM 1-4 band image data of Landsat satellite, multiple vegetation indexes were used as the input of regression algorithms. After that, four kinds of regression algorithms such as the multiple linear regression (MR) algorithm, back propagation network (BPNN) algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA) optimised BPNN algorithm and particle swarm optimisation (PSO) optimised BPNN algorithm were used to train the model and predict the LAI and SPAD. The prediction results of each algorithm were compared with the ground truth information collected by hand held instruments on the ground. The relationship between wheat yield and spectral data has been studied. Based on the BPNN algorithm, four kinds of models such as visible hyperspectral index (VHI) model, hyperspectral vegetation index (HVI) model, difference hyperspectral index (DHI) model and normalized hyperspectral index (NHI) model have been utilized to predict wheat yield. For the optimal NHI model, three regression algorithms such as back propagation network (BPNN) algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA) optimised BPNN algorithm and particle swarm optimisation (PSO) optimised BPNN algorithm, were compared to predict wheat yield, and RMSE and R-square of the three algorithms were compared and analysed. Finally, the relationship between wheat aphid and spectral data has been investigated. Nine vegetation indexes related to aphid have been estimated from spectral data as the input of regression algorithms. Five kinds of regression algorithms such as back propagation network (BPNN) algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA) optimised BPNN algorithm, particle swarm optimisation (PSO) optimised BPNN algorithm, ant colony (ACO) optimisation algorithm optimised BPNN algorithm and cuckoo search (CS) optimised BPNN algorithm have been implemented to predict wheat aphid, which was validated with the ground truth information measured by hand-held instruments on the ground. The prediction results of each algorithm have been analysed. The major original contributions of this thesis are as follows: 1. A variety of optimisation algorithms are used to improve the regression analysis of the BPNN algorithm, so that the prediction results of each model for wheat growth, yield and aphid are more accurate. 2. The spectral characteristics of winter wheat canopy have been analysed. The correlation between the absorption band and the associated physical and chemical properties of crops, specially the red edge slope, with the crop yield and wheat aphid damage is established. 3. Adjusted MSE and un-centered R-square, as accurate evaluation criteria for practical applications, are used to compare the prediction results of the models under different dimensions of the observed data. 4. Improve algorithm training by using the cross-validation method to obtain reliable and stable models for the prediction of wheat growth, yield, and aphid. Through repeated cross-validation, a better model can be obtained in the last. Key word：Precision agriculture; BP network, wheat growth assessment; wheat yield prediction, wheat aphid validatio

A Review of Harmful Algal Bloom Prediction Models for Lakes and Reservoirs

Anthropogenic activity has led to eutrophication in water bodies across the world. This eutrophication promotes blooms, cyanobacteria being among the most notorious bloom organisms. Cyanobacterial blooms (more commonly referred to as harmful algal blooms (HABs)) can devastate an ecosystem. Cyanobacteria are resilient microorganisms that have adapted to survive under a variety of conditions, often outcompeting other phytoplankton. Some species of cyanobacteria produce toxins that ward off predators. These toxins can negatively affect the health of the aquatic life, but also can impact animals and humans that drink or come in contact with these noxious waters. Although cyanotoxin’s effects on humans are not as well researched as the growth, behavior, and ecological niche of cyanobacteria, their health impacts are of large concern. It is important that research to mitigate and understand cyanobacterial blooms and cyanotoxin production continues. This project supports continued research by addressing an approach to collect and summarize published articles that focus on techniques and models to predict cyanobacterial blooms with the goal of understanding what research has been done to promote future work. The following report summarizes 34 articles from 2003 to 2020 that each describe a mechanistic or data driven model developed to predict the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms or the presence of cyanotoxins in lakes or reservoirs with similar climates to Utah. These articles showed a shift from more mechanistic approaches to more data driven approaches with time. This resulted in a more individualistic approach to modeling, meaning that models are often produced for a single lake or reservoir and are not easily comparable to other models for different systems

Metaheuristic design of feedforward neural networks: a review of two decades of research

Over the past two decades, the feedforward neural network (FNN) optimization has been a key interest among the researchers and practitioners of multiple disciplines. The FNN optimization is often viewed from the various perspectives: the optimization of weights, network architecture, activation nodes, learning parameters, learning environment, etc. Researchers adopted such different viewpoints mainly to improve the FNN's generalization ability. The gradient-descent algorithm such as backpropagation has been widely applied to optimize the FNNs. Its success is evident from the FNN's application to numerous real-world problems. However, due to the limitations of the gradient-based optimization methods, the metaheuristic algorithms including the evolutionary algorithms, swarm intelligence, etc., are still being widely explored by the researchers aiming to obtain generalized FNN for a given problem. This article attempts to summarize a broad spectrum of FNN optimization methodologies including conventional and metaheuristic approaches. This article also tries to connect various research directions emerged out of the FNN optimization practices, such as evolving neural network (NN), cooperative coevolution NN, complex-valued NN, deep learning, extreme learning machine, quantum NN, etc. Additionally, it provides interesting research challenges for future research to cope-up with the present information processing era

Bio-inspired Optimization: Algorithm, Analysis and Scope of Application

In the last few years, bio-inspired optimization techniques have been widely adopted in fields such as computer science, mathematics, and biology in order to optimize solutions. Bio inspired optimization problems are usually nonlinear and restricted to multiple nonlinear constraints to tackle the problems of the traditional optimization algorithms, the recent trends tend to apply bio-inspired optimization algorithms which represent a promising approach for solving complex optimization problems. This work comprises state-of-art of ten recent bio-inspired algorithms, gap analysis, and its applications namely; Particle swarm optimization (PSO), Genetic Bee Colony (GBC) Algorithm, Fish Swarm Algorithm (FSA), Cat Swarm Optimization (CSO), Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), Artificial Algae Algorithm (AAA), Elephant Search Algorithm (ESA), Cuckoo Search Optimization Algorithm (CSOA), Moth flame optimization (MFO), and Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) algorithm. The previous related works collected from Scopus databases are presented. Also, we explore some key issues in optimization and some applications for further research. We also analyze in-depth discussions on the essence of these algorithms and their connections to self-organization and their applications in different areas of research are presented. As a result, the proposed analysis of these algorithms leads to some key problems that have to be addressed in the future

A new numerical method for processing longitudinal data: Clinical applications

Background: Processing longitudinal data is a computational issue that arises in many applications, such as in aircraft design, medicine, optimal control and weather forecasting. Given some longitudinal data, i.e. scattered measurements, the aim consists in approximating the parameters involved in the dynamics of the considered process. For this problem, a large variety of well-known methods have already been developed. Results: Here, we propose an alternative approach to be used as effective and accurate tool for the parameters fitting and prediction of individual trajectories from sparse longitudinal data. In particular, our mixed model, that uses Radial Basis Functions (RBFs) combined with Stochastic Optimization Algorithms (SOMs), is here presented and tested on clinical data. Further, we also carry out comparisons with other methods that are widely used in this framework. Conclusion: The main advantages of the proposed method are the flexibility with respect to the datasets, meaning that it is effective also for truly irregularly distributed data, and its ability to extract reliable information on the evolution of the dynamics

A new numerical method for processing longitudinal data: clinical applications

Background: Processing longitudinal data is a computational issue that arises in many applications, such as in aircraft design, medicine, optimal control and weather forecasting. Given some longitudinal data, i.e. scattered measurements, the aim consists in approximating the parameters involved in the dynamics of the considered process. For this problem, a large variety of well-known methods have already been developed. Results: Here, we propose an alternative approach to be used as effective and accurate tool for the parameters fitting and prediction of individual trajectories from sparse longitudinal data. In particular, our mixed model, that uses Radial Basis Functions (RBFs) combined with Stochastic Optimization Algorithms (SOMs), is here presented and tested on clinical data. Further, we also carry out comparisons with other methods that are widely used in this framework. Conclusions: The main advantages of the proposed method are the flexibility with respect to the datasets, meaning that it is effective also for truly irregularly distributed data, and its ability to extract reliable information on the evolution of the dynamics

Advances in Artificial Intelligence: Models, Optimization, and Machine Learning

The present book contains all the articles accepted and published in the Special Issue “Advances in Artificial Intelligence: Models, Optimization, and Machine Learning” of the MDPI Mathematics journal, which covers a wide range of topics connected to the theory and applications of artificial intelligence and its subfields. These topics include, among others, deep learning and classic machine learning algorithms, neural modelling, architectures and learning algorithms, biologically inspired optimization algorithms, algorithms for autonomous driving, probabilistic models and Bayesian reasoning, intelligent agents and multiagent systems. We hope that the scientific results presented in this book will serve as valuable sources of documentation and inspiration for anyone willing to pursue research in artificial intelligence, machine learning and their widespread applications

Swarm Intelligence

Swarm Intelligence has emerged as one of the most studied artificial intelligence branches during the last decade, constituting the fastest growing stream in the bio-inspired computation community. A clear trend can be deduced analyzing some of the most renowned scientific databases available, showing that the interest aroused by this branch has increased at a notable pace in the last years. This book describes the prominent theories and recent developments of Swarm Intelligence methods, and their application in all fields covered by engineering. This book unleashes a great opportunity for researchers, lecturers, and practitioners interested in Swarm Intelligence, optimization problems, and artificial intelligence