Context-Aware Clustering and the Optimized Whale Optimization Algorithm: An Effective Predictive Model for the Smart Grid

For customers to participate in key peak pricing, period-of-use fees, and individualized responsiveness to demand programmes taken from multi-dimensional data flows, energy use projection and analysis must be done well. However, it is a difficult study topic to ascertain the knowledge of use of electricity as recorded in the electricity records' Multi-Dimensional Data Streams (MDDS). Context-Aware Clustering (CAC) and the Optimized Whale Optimization Algorithm were suggested by researchers as a fresh power usage knowledge finding model from the multi-dimensional data streams (MDDS) to resolve issue (OWOA). The proposed CAC-OWOA framework first performs the data cleaning to handle the noisy and null elements. The predictive features are extracted from the novel context-aware group formation algorithm using the statistical context parameters from the pre-processed MDDS electricity logs. To perform the energy consumption prediction, researchers have proposed the novel Artificial Neural Network (ANN) predictive algorithm using the bio-inspired optimization algorithm called OWOA. The OWOA is the modified algorithm of the existing WOA to overcome the problems of slow convergence speed and easily falling into the local optimal solutions. The ANN training method is used in conjunction with the suggested bio-inspired OWOA algorithm to lower error rates and boost overall prediction accuracy. The efficiency of the CAC-OWOA framework is evaluated using the publicly available smart grid electricity consumption logs. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the CAC-OWOA framework in terms of forecasting accuracy, precision, recall, and duration when compared to underlying approaches

Control System for Electrical Power Grids with Renewables using Artificial Intelligence Methods

Modern electrical and electronic devices are very sensitive to the power supply and require steady and stable electric power. Factories may also need electric power within a specific standard range of voltage, frequency, and current to avoid defects in the production. For these reasons electric power utilities must produce an electric power of a specific standard of power quality parameters [EN50160]. Nowadays, renewable energy sources, such as wind energy and solar energy are used to generate electric power as free and clean power sources as well to reduce fuel consumption and environmental pollution as much as possible. Renewable energy, e.g. wind speed or solar irradiance, are not stable or not constant energies over the time. Therefore smart control systems (SCSs) are needed for operate the power system in optimal way which help for producing a power with good quality from renewable sources. The forecasting and prediction models play a main role in these issues and contribute as the important part of the smart control system (SCS). The main task of the SCS is to keep the generated power equal to the consumed power as well as to consider standard levels of power quality parameters as much as possible. Some of previous studies have focused on forecasting power quality parameters, power load, wind speed and solar irradiance using machine learning models as neural networks, support vector machines, fuzzy sets, and neuro fuzzy. This thesis proposes designing forecasting systems using machine learning techniques in order to be use in control and operate an electrical power system. In this study, design and tested forecasting systems related to the power and renewable energies. These systems include wind speed forecasting, power load forecasting and power quality parameters forecasting. The main part of this thesis is focus in power quality parameters forecasting in short-term, these parameters are: power frequency, magnitude of the supply voltage, total harmonic distortion of voltage (THDu), total harmonic distortion of current (THDi), and short term flicker severity (Pst) according to the definition in [EN50160]. The output of the forecasting models of power quality parameters can be used in shifting the load to run in switch time which will help for correct and optimize the quality of the power.Modern electrical and electronic devices are very sensitive to the power supply and require steady and stable electric power. Factories may also need electric power within a specific standard range of voltage, frequency, and current to avoid defects in the production. For these reasons electric power utilities must produce an electric power of a specific standard of power quality parameters [EN50160]. Nowadays, renewable energy sources, such as wind energy and solar energy are used to generate electric power as free and clean power sources as well to reduce fuel consumption and environmental pollution as much as possible. Renewable energy, e.g. wind speed or solar irradiance, are not stable or not constant energies over the time. Therefore smart control systems (SCSs) are needed for operate the power system in optimal way which help for producing a power with good quality from renewable sources. The forecasting and prediction models play a main role in these issues and contribute as the important part of the smart control system (SCS). The main task of the SCS is to keep the generated power equal to the consumed power as well as to consider standard levels of power quality parameters as much as possible. Some of previous studies have focused on forecasting power quality parameters, power load, wind speed and solar irradiance using machine learning models as neural networks, support vector machines, fuzzy sets, and neuro fuzzy. This thesis proposes designing forecasting systems using machine learning techniques in order to be use in control and operate an electrical power system. In this study, design and tested forecasting systems related to the power and renewable energies. These systems include wind speed forecasting, power load forecasting and power quality parameters forecasting. The main part of this thesis is focus in power quality parameters forecasting in short-term, these parameters are: power frequency, magnitude of the supply voltage, total harmonic distortion of voltage (THDu), total harmonic distortion of current (THDi), and short term flicker severity (Pst) according to the definition in [EN50160]. The output of the forecasting models of power quality parameters can be used in shifting the load to run in switch time which will help for correct and optimize the quality of the power.410 - Katedra elektroenergetikyvyhově

Metaheuristic design of feedforward neural networks: a review of two decades of research

Over the past two decades, the feedforward neural network (FNN) optimization has been a key interest among the researchers and practitioners of multiple disciplines. The FNN optimization is often viewed from the various perspectives: the optimization of weights, network architecture, activation nodes, learning parameters, learning environment, etc. Researchers adopted such different viewpoints mainly to improve the FNN's generalization ability. The gradient-descent algorithm such as backpropagation has been widely applied to optimize the FNNs. Its success is evident from the FNN's application to numerous real-world problems. However, due to the limitations of the gradient-based optimization methods, the metaheuristic algorithms including the evolutionary algorithms, swarm intelligence, etc., are still being widely explored by the researchers aiming to obtain generalized FNN for a given problem. This article attempts to summarize a broad spectrum of FNN optimization methodologies including conventional and metaheuristic approaches. This article also tries to connect various research directions emerged out of the FNN optimization practices, such as evolving neural network (NN), cooperative coevolution NN, complex-valued NN, deep learning, extreme learning machine, quantum NN, etc. Additionally, it provides interesting research challenges for future research to cope-up with the present information processing era

Ant Colony Optimization

Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is the best example of how studies aimed at understanding and modeling the behavior of ants and other social insects can provide inspiration for the development of computational algorithms for the solution of difficult mathematical problems. Introduced by Marco Dorigo in his PhD thesis (1992) and initially applied to the travelling salesman problem, the ACO field has experienced a tremendous growth, standing today as an important nature-inspired stochastic metaheuristic for hard optimization problems. This book presents state-of-the-art ACO methods and is divided into two parts: (I) Techniques, which includes parallel implementations, and (II) Applications, where recent contributions of ACO to diverse fields, such as traffic congestion and control, structural optimization, manufacturing, and genomics are presented

Cuckoo search based adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for short-term load forecasting

Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is an essential input for power system operation computations to achieve proper system balancing. General economy and security of power system depend on accurate STLF. The accuracy of forecasting model depends on the number and types of the forecasting variables. Furthermore, a day-ahead hourly-load forecast has to reach the decision makers before the elapse of a pre-set time. Conventional methods used in determining future load demand were not able to explore all the available variables in a particular forecasting region. Moreover, artificial intelligence methods like Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), are associated with computational difficulties, thus influence the speed and accuracy of the model. Therefore, these variables need to be investigated so as to make the forecasting model simple and easy to use. Similarly, the forecasting speed needs to be improved. This thesis presents the development of short-term electric load demand forecasting algorithm, with the aim to improve the forecasting accuracy and speed. It starts with the development of data selection and data processing framework, through the use of correlation analysis, hypothesis test and wavelet transform. Variables of the four seasons in one year were investigated and were classified based on the available weather and historical load data in each season. To reduce the variability in the forecasting data, wavelet transform is used. The whole forecasting algorithm has been developed by integrating Cuckoo Search (CS) algorithm with ANFIS to produce CS-ANFIS model. CS was used to improve the forecasting capability and speed of the traditional ANFIS, by replacing the derivative-based gradient descent optimization algorithm with CS in backward pass. Its purpose is to update the antecedent parameters of the traditional ANFIS, through the determination of an optimal value of the error merging between the ANFIS output and targeted output. The whole system is validated by the comparison with an existing ANFIS model, and two other ANFIS models optimized with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO-ANFIS) and Genetic Algorithm (GA-ANFIS). The developed CS-ANFIS model proved to be superior to these models in terms of accuracy and forecasting time. A reduction in average mean absolute percentage error of 84.48% for one year forecast is recorded using the developed CS-ANFIS, and 77.32% with the proposed data selection approach. The model was found to forecast the future load demand within an average period of 37 seconds, as compared to the traditional ANFIS which recorded an average forecasting time of 219 seconds. It can therefore, be accepted as a tool for forecasting future energy demand at utility level to improve the reliability and economic operation of the utility

Hybrid artificial intelligence algorithms for short-term load and price forecasting in competitive electric markets

The liberalization and deregulation of electric markets forced the various participants to accommodate several challenges, including: a considerable accumulation of new generation capacity from renewable sources (fundamentally wind energy), the unpredictability associated with these new forms of generation and new consumption patterns, contributing to further electricity prices volatility (e.g. the Iberian market). Given the competitive framework in which market participants operate, the existence of efficient computational forecasting techniques is a distinctive factor. Based on these forecasts a suitable bidding strategy and an effective generation systems operation planning is achieved, together with an improved installed transmission capacity exploitation, results in maximized profits, all this contributing to a better energy resources utilization. This dissertation presents a new hybrid method for load and electricity prices forecasting, for one day ahead time horizon. The optimization scheme presented in this method, combines the efforts from different techniques, notably artificial neural networks, several optimization algorithms and wavelet transform. The method’s validation was made using different real case studies. The subsequent comparison (accuracy wise) with published results, in reference journals, validated the proposed hybrid method suitability.O processo de liberalização e desregulação dos mercados de energia elétrica, obrigou os diversos participantes a acomodar uma série de desafios, entre os quais: a acumulação considerável de nova capacidade de geração proveniente de origem renovável (fundamentalmente energia eólica), a imprevisibilidade associada a estas novas formas de geração e novos padrões de consumo. Resultando num aumento da volatilidade associada aos preços de energia elétrica (como é exemplo o mercado ibérico). Dado o quadro competitivo em que os agentes de mercado operam, a existência de técnicas computacionais de previsão eficientes, constituí um fator diferenciador. É com base nestas previsões que se definem estratégias de licitação e se efetua um planeamento da operação eficaz dos sistemas de geração que, em conjunto com um melhor aproveitamento da capacidade de transmissão instalada, permite maximizar os lucros, realizando ao mesmo tempo um melhor aproveitamento dos recursos energéticos. Esta dissertação apresenta um novo método híbrido para a previsão da carga e dos preços da energia elétrica, para um horizonte temporal a 24 horas. O método baseia-se num esquema de otimização que reúne os esforços de diferentes técnicas, nomeadamente redes neuronais artificiais, diversos algoritmos de otimização e da transformada de wavelet. A validação do método foi feita em diferentes casos de estudo reais. A posterior comparação com resultados já publicados em revistas de referência, revelou um excelente desempenho do método hibrido proposto

A Comprehensive Survey on Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm and Its Applications

Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is a heuristic global optimization method, proposed originally by Kennedy and Eberhart in 1995. It is now one of the most commonly used optimization techniques. This survey presented a comprehensive investigation of PSO. On one hand, we provided advances with PSO, including its modifications (including quantum-behaved PSO, bare-bones PSO, chaotic PSO, and fuzzy PSO), population topology (as fully connected, von Neumann, ring, star, random, etc.), hybridization (with genetic algorithm, simulated annealing, Tabu search, artificial immune system, ant colony algorithm, artificial bee colony, differential evolution, harmonic search, and biogeography-based optimization), extensions (to multiobjective, constrained, discrete, and binary optimization), theoretical analysis (parameter selection and tuning, and convergence analysis), and parallel implementation (in multicore, multiprocessor, GPU, and cloud computing forms). On the other hand, we offered a survey on applications of PSO to the following eight fields: electrical and electronic engineering, automation control systems, communication theory, operations research, mechanical engineering, fuel and energy, medicine, chemistry, and biology. It is hoped that this survey would be beneficial for the researchers studying PSO algorithms

Customer active power consumption prediction for the next day based on historical profile

Energy consumption prediction application is one of the most important fieldsthat is artificially controlled with Artificial Intelligence technologies to maintainaccuracy for electricity market costs reduction. This work presents a way to buildand apply a model to each costumer in residential buildings. This model is built by using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks to address a demonstration of time-series prediction problem and Deep Learning to take into consideration the historical consumption of customers and hourly load profiles in order to predict future consumption. Using this model, the most probable sequence of a certain industrial customer’s consumption levels for a coming day is predicted. In the case of residential customers, determining the particular period of the prediction in terms of either a year or a month would be helpful and more accurate due to changes in consumption according to the changes in temperature and weather conditions in general. Both of them are used together in this research work to make a wide or narrow prediction window.A test data set for a set of customers is used. Consumption readings for anycustomer in the test data set applying LSTM model are varying between minimum and maximum values of active power consumption. These values are always alternating during the day according to customer consumption behavior. This consumption variation leads to leveling all readings to be determined in a finite set and deterministic values. These levels could be then used in building the prediction model. Levels of consumption’s are modeling states in the transition matrix. Twenty five readings are recorded per day on each hour and cover leap years extra ones. Emission matrix is built using twenty five values numbered from one to twenty five and represent the observations. Calculating probabilities of being in each level (node) is also covered. Logistic Regression Algorithm is used to determine the most probable nodes for the next 25 hours in case of residential or industrial customers.Index Terms—Smart Grids, Load Forecasting, Consumption Prediction, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Logistic Regression Algorithm, Load Profile, Electrical Consumption.</p

Forecasting methods in energy planning models

Energy planning models (EPMs) play an indispensable role in policy formulation and energy sector development. The forecasting of energy demand and supply is at the heart of an EPM. Different forecasting methods, from statistical to machine learning have been applied in the past. The selection of a forecasting method is mostly based on data availability and the objectives of the tool and planning exercise. We present a systematic and critical review of forecasting methods used in 483 EPMs. The methods were analyzed for forecasting accuracy; applicability for temporal and spatial predictions; and relevance to planning and policy objectives. Fifty different forecasting methods have been identified. Artificial neural network (ANN) is the most widely used method, which is applied in 40% of the reviewed EPMs. The other popular methods, in descending order, are: support vector machine (SVM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), fuzzy logic (FL), linear regression (LR), genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), grey prediction (GM) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA). In terms of accuracy, computational intelligence (CI) methods demonstrate better performance than that of the statistical ones, in particular for parameters with greater variability in the source data. However, hybrid methods yield better accuracy than that of the stand-alone ones. Statistical methods are useful for only short and medium range, while CI methods are preferable for all temporal forecasting ranges (short, medium and long). Based on objective, most EPMs focused on energy demand and load forecasting. In terms geographical coverage, the highest number of EPMs were developed on China. However, collectively, more models were established for the developed countries than the developing ones. Findings would benefit researchers and professionals in gaining an appreciation of the forecasting methods, and enable them to select appropriate method(s) to meet their needs

Using artificial intelligence to support emerging networks management approaches

In emergent networks such as Internet of Things (IoT) and 5G applications, network traffic estimation is of great importance to forecast impacts on resource allocation that can influence the quality of service. Besides, controlling the network delay caused with route selection is still a notable challenge, owing to the high mobility of the devices. To analyse the trade-off between traffic forecasting accuracy and the complexity of artificial intelligence models used in this scenario, this work first evaluates the behavior of several traffic load forecasting models in a resource sharing environment. Moreover, in order to alleviate the routing problem in highly dynamic ad-hoc networks, this work also proposes a machine-learning-based routing scheme to reduce network delay in the high-mobility scenarios of flying ad-hoc networks, entitled Q-FANET. The performance of this new algorithm is compared with other methods using the WSNet simulator. With the obtained complexity analysis and the performed simulations, on one hand the best traffic load forecast model can be chosen, and on the other, the proposed routing solution presents lower delay, higher packet delivery ratio and lower jitter in highly dynamic networks than existing state-of-art methods