Experimentos Numéricos para o Ciclone Subtropical “Anita” com o Modelo WRF

http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/2179460X16218The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) were used to simulate the subtropical cyclone Anita, which occurred in March of 2010 over southwestern of South Atlantic Ocean. These cyclone instigated weather forecast centers around the world, since numerical models were indicating that it would atypically move to southwest. Therefore, numerical experiments with WRF were conducted in order to evaluate the sensitivity of Anita cyclone by changing different configurations/parameterization: (a) relaxation zone of the model (between 5 and 40 columns); (b) Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus parameterization; (c) anticipation (24, 48, 72h). Simulations used a 25 km resolution grid, and boundary and initial conditions from FNL/NCEP (Final Analysis/National Centers for Environmental Prediction). Results were compared with the FNL/NCEP analyses and the Tropical Measuring Mission (TRMM). The relaxation zone conditions didn’t seemed to present a large impact in simulating the intensity and position of the cyclone. In general it is simulated a deeper than observed low pressure. In the experiments initiated with 72h before validation date tended to move the cyclone towards the continent, while the experiments initiated 24h before presented better agreement with observed cyclone path. The use of Betts-MillerJanjic cumulus parameterization provides results similar to the observed one, mainly for simulations initiated 72h before. The precipitation was, in general, overestimated in the experiments compared to the TRMM analyses.O modelo Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) foi utilizado para simular o ciclone subtropical Anita, que ocorreu em março de 2010 no setor sudoeste do Oceano Atlântico Sul. Esse ciclone chamou a atenção, pois previsões numéricas indicavam que ele apresentaria uma trajetória atípica para sudoeste.  Portanto, experimentos com o WRF foram realizados para avaliar a sensibilidade do ciclone as diferentes configurações/parametrizações: (a) largura da zona de relaxação (entre 5 e 40 colunas); (b) parametrização convectiva Betts-Miller-Janjic; (c) tempo de antecedência (24, 48 e 72h). As simulações utilizaram uma grade única com 25 km de resolução e condições inicial e de fronteira do FNL/NCEP (Final Analysis/National Centers for Environmental Prediction). Os resultados foram comparados com a análise do FNL/NCEP e do Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). A alteração da zona de relaxação não apresentou um impacto grande na simulação da posição e intensidade do ciclone. Em geral, as simulações intensificam a baixa pressão do sistema. Os experimentos com 72h de antecedência tenderam a aproximar o centro do ciclone do continente, enquanto que os com antecedência de 24h apresentaram maior concordância com a análise do FNL/NCEP

Comparative study between radiological and surgical findings of chronic otitis media

INTRODUCTION: The chronic otitis media (COM) is a prevalent disease and the most frequent cause of indication to mastoidectomy. Many studies have evaluated the use of tomography (CT) of temporal bones for preoperative evaluation of COM and its indication in the preoperative approach is still controversial nowadays. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the sensitivity of the clinical and radiological findings of COM according to the intraoperative surgical results and histopathological findings. METHOD: Transversal retrospective study through collection of record data of patients with COM submitted to mastoidectomy in the period from 2007 through 2008 in our service. RESULTS: From a total of 82 ears, 40.24% had cholesteatoma. The CT presented 72.73% of sensitivity in the identification of cholesteatoma, 56.67% in the identification of changes to the ossicular chain and 100% in that of erosion of the lateral semicircular canal. CONCLUSION: The clinical and radiological findings showed a high level sensitivity with intraoperative findings as regards to the presence of cholesteatoma, large changes of the ossicular chain and erosion of the lateral semicircular canal. For minor changes to the ossicular chain, the facial nerve canal and the tympanic tegmen they described low sensitivity.INTRODUÇÃO: A otite média crônica (OMC) é uma doença prevalente, e trata-se da causa mais frequente de indicação de mastoidectomia. Muitos estudos têm avaliado a utilização da tomografia (TC) de ossos temporais na avaliação pré-operatória da OMC e sua indicação no pré-operatório ainda permanece controversa nos dias atuais. OBJETIVO: Avaliar a sensibilidade dos achados clínicos e radiológicos de OMC de acordo com os resultados cirúrgicos intra-operatórios e achados histopatológicos. MÉTODO: Estudo retrospectivo transversal através de coleta de dados de prontuários de pacientes com OMC submetidos a mastoidectomia no período de 2007 a 2008 em nosso serviço. RESULTADOS: Em um total de 82 orelhas, 40,24% apresentavam colesteatoma. A TC apresentou 72,73% de sensibilidade na identificação do colesteatoma, 56,67% na identificação de alterações da cadeia ossicular e 100% na de erosão do canal semicircular lateral. CONCLUSÃO: Os achados clínicos e radiológicos mostraram boa sensibilidade com os achados intra-operatórios com relação à presença de colesteatoma, grandes alterações da cadeia ossicular e erosão do canal semicircular lateral. Já para alterações menores da cadeia ossicular, do canal do nervo facial e do tegmem timpânico apresentaram baixa sensibilidade.UNIFESPfaculdade de medicina do ABCHospital Estadual de DiademaUNIFESPSciEL

Extreme rainfall and landslides as a response to human-induced climate change: a case study at Baixada Santista, Brazil, 2020

In March 2020, an extreme rainfall in Baixada Santista, Brazil, led to a series of landslides affecting more than 2,800 people and resulting losses exceeding USD 43 million. This attribution study compared extreme rainfall in two large ensembles of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM3-GA6 model that represented the event with and without the effects of anthropogenic climate change. Antecedent rainfall conditions on two different timescales are considered, namely extreme 60- day rainfall (Rx60day) which relates to the soil moisture conditions and extreme 3-day rainfall (Rx3day) which represents landslide triggering heavy rainfall. In the scenario including both natural and human-induced factors the antecedent 60 day rainfall became 74% more likely, while the short-term trigger was 46% more likely. The anthropogenic contribution to changes in rainfall accounted for 20-42% of the total losses and damages. The greatest economic losses occurred in Guarujá (42%), followed by São Vicente (30%) and Santos (28%). Landslides were responsible for 47% of the homes damaged, 85% of the homes destroyed, all reported injuries, and 51% of the deaths associated with heavy rainfall. Changes in land cover and urbanization showed a pronounced increase in urbanized area in Guarujá (107%), São Vicente (61.7%) and Santos (36.9%) and a reduction in farming area. In recent years, the region has experienced an increase in population growth and a rise in the proportion of irregular and/or precarious housing in high-risk areas. Guarujá has the highest number of such dwellings, accounting for 34.8%. Our estimates suggest that extreme precipitation events are having shorter return periods due to climate change and increased urbanization and population growth is exposing more people to these events. These findings are especially important for decision-makers in the context of disaster risk reduction and mitigation and adaptation to climate change

BUILDING BRIDGES FOR INNOVATION IN AGEING : SYNERGIES BETWEEN ACTION GROUPS OF THE EIP ON AHA

The Strategic Implementation Plan of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing (EIP on AHA) proposed six Action Groups. After almost three years of activity, many achievements have been obtained through commitments or collaborative work of the Action Groups. However, they have often worked in silos and, consequently, synergies between Action Groups have been proposed to strengthen the triple win of the EIP on AHA. The paper presents the methodology and current status of the Task Force on EIP on AHA synergies. Synergies are in line with the Action Groups' new Renovated Action Plan (2016-2018) to ensure that their future objectives are coherent and fully connected. The outcomes and impact of synergies are using the Monitoring and Assessment Framework for the EIP on AHA (MAFEIP). Eight proposals for synergies have been approved by the Task Force: Five cross-cutting synergies which can be used for all current and future synergies as they consider overarching domains (appropriate polypharmacy, citizen empowerment, teaching and coaching on AHA, deployment of synergies to EU regions, Responsible Research and Innovation), and three cross-cutting synergies focussing on current Action Group activities (falls, frailty, integrated care and chronic respiratory diseases).Peer reviewe

On the mechanisms governing gas penetration into a tokamak plasma during a massive gas injection

A new 1D radial fluid code, IMAGINE, is used to simulate the penetration of gas into a tokamak plasma during a massive gas injection (MGI). The main result is that the gas is in general strongly braked as it reaches the plasma, due to mechanisms related to charge exchange and (to a smaller extent) recombination. As a result, only a fraction of the gas penetrates into the plasma. Also, a shock wave is created in the gas which propagates away from the plasma, braking and compressing the incoming gas. Simulation results are quantitatively consistent, at least in terms of orders of magnitude, with experimental data for a D 2 MGI into a JET Ohmic plasma. Simulations of MGI into the background plasma surrounding a runaway electron beam show that if the background electron density is too high, the gas may not penetrate, suggesting a possible explanation for the recent results of Reux et al in JET (2015 Nucl. Fusion 55 093013)

Modelling of the effect of ELMs on fuel retention at the bulk W divertor of JET

Effect of ELMs on fuel retention at the bulk W target of JET ITER-Like Wall was studied with multi-scale calculations. Plasma input parameters were taken from ELMy H-mode plasma experiment. The energetic intra-ELM fuel particles get implanted and create near-surface defects up to depths of few tens of nm, which act as the main fuel trapping sites during ELMs. Clustering of implantation-induced vacancies were found to take place. The incoming flux of inter-ELM plasma particles increases the different filling levels of trapped fuel in defects. The temperature increase of the W target during the pulse increases the fuel detrapping rate. The inter-ELM fuel particle flux refills the partially emptied trapping sites and fills new sites. This leads to a competing effect on the retention and release rates of the implanted particles. At high temperatures the main retention appeared in larger vacancy clusters due to increased clustering rate

Impact of fast ions on density peaking in JET: fluid and gyrokinetic modeling

The effect of fast ions on turbulent particle transport, driven by ion temperature gradient (ITG)/ trapped electron mode turbulence, is studied. Two neutral beam injection (NBI) heated JET discharges in different regimes are analyzed at the radial position ρ$_{t}$=0.6, one of them an L-mode and the other one an H-mode discharge. Results obtained from the computationally efficient fluid model EDWM and the gyro-fluid model TGLF are compared to linear and nonlinear gyrokinetic GENE simulations as well as the experimentally obtained density peaking. In these models, the fast ions are treated as a dynamic species with a Maxwellian background distribution. The dependence of the zero particle flux density gradient (peaking factor) on fast ion density, temperature and corresponding gradients, is investigated. The simulations show that the inclusion of a fast ion species has a stabilizing influence on the ITG mode and reduces the peaking of the main ion and electron density profiles in the absence of sources. The models mostly reproduce the experimentally obtained density peaking for the L-mode discharge whereas the H-mode density peaking is significantly underpredicted, indicating the importance of the NBI particle source for the H-mode density profile

The effect of beryllium oxide on retention in JET ITER-like wall tiles

Preliminary results investigating the microstructure, bonding and effect of beryllium oxide formation on retention in the JET ITER-like wall beryllium tiles, are presented. The tiles have been investigated by several techniques: Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) equipped with Energy Dispersive X-ray (EDX), Transmission Electron microscopy (TEM) equipped with EDX and Electron Energy Loss Spectroscopy (EELS), Raman Spectroscopy and Thermal Desorption Spectroscopy (TDS). This paper focuses on results from melted materials of the dump plate tiles in JET. From our results and the literature, it is concluded, beryllium can form micron deep oxide islands contrary to the nanometric oxides predicted under vacuum conditions. The deepest oxides analyzed were up to 2-micron thicknesses. The beryllium Deuteroxide (BeOxDy) bond was found with Raman Spectroscopy. Application of EELS confirmed the oxide presence and stoichiometry. Literature suggests these oxides form at temperatures greater than 700 °C where self-diffusion of beryllium ions through the surface oxide layer can occur. Further oxidation is made possible between oxygen plasma impurities and the beryllium ions now present at the wall surface. Under Ultra High Vacuum (UHV) nanometric Beryllium oxide layers are formed and passivate at room temperature. After continual cyclic heating (to the point of melt formation) in the presence of oxygen impurities from the plasma, oxide growth to the levels seen experimentally (approximately two microns) is proposed. This retention mechanism is not considered to contribute dramatically to overall retention in JET, due to low levels of melt formation. However, this mechanism, thought the result of operation environment and melt formation, could be of wider concern to ITER, dependent on wall temperatures