Methodological criteria for the assessment of moderators in systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials : a consensus study

Background: Current methodological guidelines provide advice about the assessment of sub-group analysis within RCTs, but do not specify explicit criteria for assessment. Our objective was to provide researchers with a set of criteria that will facilitate the grading of evidence for moderators, in systematic reviews. Method: We developed a set of criteria from methodological manuscripts (n = 18) using snowballing technique, and electronic database searches. Criteria were reviewed by an international Delphi panel (n = 21), comprising authors who have published methodological papers in this area, and researchers who have been active in the study of sub-group analysis in RCTs. We used the Research ANd Development/University of California Los Angeles appropriateness method to assess consensus on the quantitative data. Free responses were coded for consensus and disagreement. In a subsequent round additional criteria were extracted from the Cochrane Reviewers’ Handbook, and the process was repeated. Results: The recommendations are that meta-analysts report both confirmatory and exploratory findings for subgroups analysis. Confirmatory findings must only come from studies in which a specific theory/evidence based apriori statement is made. Exploratory findings may be used to inform future/subsequent trials. However, for inclusion in the meta-analysis of moderators, the following additional criteria should be applied to each study: Baseline factors should be measured prior to randomisation, measurement of baseline factors should be of adequate reliability and validity, and a specific test of the interaction between baseline factors and interventions must be presented. Conclusions: There is consensus from a group of 21 international experts that methodological criteria to assess moderators within systematic reviews of RCTs is both timely and necessary. The consensus from the experts resulted in five criteria divided into two groups when synthesising evidence: confirmatory findings to support hypotheses about moderators and exploratory findings to inform future research. These recommendations are discussed in reference to previous recommendations for evaluating and reporting moderator studies

Signs of subclinical coronary atherosclerosis in relation to risk factor distribution in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study (HNR)

AIMS: Modern imaging technology allows us the visualization of coronary artery calcification (CAC), a marker of subclinical coronary atherosclerosis. The prevalence, quantity, and risk factors for CAC were compared between two studies with similar imaging protocols but different source populations: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study (HNR). METHODS AND RESULTS: The measured CAC in 2220 MESA participants were compared with those in 3,126 HNR participants with the inclusion criteria such as age 45-75 years, Caucasian race, and free of baseline cardiovascular disease. Despite similar mean levels of CAC of 244.6 among participants in MESA and of 240.3 in HNR (P = 0.91), the prevalence of CAC > 0 was lower in MESA (52.6%) compared with HNR (67.0%) with a prevalence rate ratio of CAC > 0 of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.72-0.85] after adjustment for known risk factors. Consequently, among participants with CAC > 0, the participants in MESA tended to have higher levels of CAC than those in HNR (ratio of CAC levels: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.19-1.63), since many HNR participants have small (near zero) CAC values. CONCLUSIONS: The CAC prevalence was lower in the United States (MESA) cohort than in the German (HNR) cohort, which may be explained by more favourable risk factor levels among the MESA participants. The predictors for increased levels of CAC were, however, similar in both cohorts with the exception that male gender, blood pressure, and body mass index were more strongly associated in the HNR cohort

XML-BSPM: an XML format for storing Body Surface Potential Map recordings

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Body Surface Potential Map (BSPM) is an electrocardiographic method, for recording and displaying the electrical activity of the heart, from a spatial perspective. The BSPM has been deemed more accurate for assessing certain cardiac pathologies when compared to the 12-lead ECG. Nevertheless, the 12-lead ECG remains the most popular ECG acquisition method for non-invasively assessing the electrical activity of the heart. Although data from the 12-lead ECG can be stored and shared using open formats such as SCP-ECG, no open formats currently exist for storing and sharing the BSPM. As a result, an innovative format for storing BSPM datasets has been developed within this study.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The XML vocabulary was chosen for implementation, as opposed to binary for the purpose of human readability. There are currently no standards to dictate the number of electrodes and electrode positions for recording a BSPM. In fact, there are at least 11 different BSPM electrode configurations in use today. Therefore, in order to support these BSPM variants, the XML-BSPM format was made versatile. Hence, the format supports the storage of custom torso diagrams using SVG graphics. This diagram can then be used in a 2D coordinate system for retaining electrode positions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>This XML-BSPM format has been successfully used to store the Kornreich-117 BSPM dataset and the Lux-192 BSPM dataset. The resulting file sizes were in the region of 277 kilobytes for each BSPM recording and can be deemed suitable for example, for use with any telemonitoring application. Moreover, there is potential for file sizes to be further reduced using basic compression algorithms, i.e. the deflate algorithm. Finally, these BSPM files have been parsed and visualised within a convenient time period using a web based BSPM viewer.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This format, if widely adopted could promote BSPM interoperability, knowledge sharing and data mining. This work could also be used to provide conceptual solutions and inspire existing formats such as DICOM, SCP-ECG and aECG to support the storage of BSPMs. In summary, this research provides initial ground work for creating a complete BSPM management system.</p

Deconstructing the financialization of healthcare

Financialization is promoted by alliances of multilateral 'development' organisations, national governments, and owners and institutions of private capital. In the healthcare sector, the leveraging of private sources of finance is widely argued as necessary to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal 3 target of universal health coverage. Employing social science perspectives on financialization, we contend that this is a new phase of capital formation. We trace the antecedents, institutions, instruments and ideas that facilitated the penetration of private capital in this sector, and the emergence of new asset classes that distinguish it. We argue that this deepening of financialization represents a fundamental shift in the organizing principles for healthcare systems, with negative implications for health and equality

Stacked Search for Gravitational Waves from the 2006 SGR 1900+14 Storm

We present the results of a LIGO search for short-duration gravitational waves (GWs) associated with the 2006 March 29 SGR 1900+14 storm. A new search method is used, "stacking'' the GW data around the times of individual soft-gamma bursts in the storm to enhance sensitivity for models in which multiple bursts are accompanied by GW emission. We assume that variation in the time difference between burst electromagnetic emission and potential burst GW emission is small relative to the GW signal duration, and we time-align GW excess power time-frequency tilings containing individual burst triggers to their corresponding electromagnetic emissions. We use two GW emission models in our search: a fluence-weighted model and a flat (unweighted) model for the most electromagnetically energetic bursts. We find no evidence of GWs associated with either model. Model-dependent GW strain, isotropic GW emission energy E_GW, and \gamma = E_GW / E_EM upper limits are estimated using a variety of assumed waveforms. The stacking method allows us to set the most stringent model-dependent limits on transient GW strain published to date. We find E_GW upper limit estimates (at a nominal distance of 10 kpc) of between 2x10^45 erg and 6x10^50 erg depending on waveform type. These limits are an order of magnitude lower than upper limits published previously for this storm and overlap with the range of electromagnetic energies emitted in SGR giant flares.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure

Small business economics: A perspective from The Netherlands

In the analysis of economic phenomena either within or across industries there is room for integrating the role of small business. This contribution can be made by aggregation or generalization of the findings at the meso level, which again are partly based upon analyses at the micro level. The Netherlands has a long history in macro model building. A recent discussion among Dutch macro-economists considered the future of econometric model building at the macro level, and considered how best to improve this model building. The explicit integration of scale effects, however, was not mentioned. I am convinced that improvements in this respect are possible. In particular, I have in mind the role which small businesses play in certain areas such as wage structure, employment or investments. The dissection of macro prognoses into a small business component and a remaining component is a traditional practice in The Netherlands.1 Finally, there is much concern in The Netherlands for the calculation of regulatory effects, decomposed into effects for small and large businesses. If anywhere in the world there is a solid foundation for studying scale effects in both macro and sectoral models, it most certainly has been in The Netherlands. There is a strong tradition of macro-econometric model building; groups of econometricians specialized in small business research exist; Dutch policymakers show concern and the required research apparatus is available

Constraints on cosmic strings using data from the first Advanced LIGO observing run

Cosmic strings are topological defects which can be formed in grand unified theory scale phase transitions in the early universe. They are also predicted to form in the context of string theory. The main mechanism for a network of Nambu-Goto cosmic strings to lose energy is through the production of loops and the subsequent emission of gravitational waves, thus offering an experimental signature for the existence of cosmic strings. Here we report on the analysis conducted to specifically search for gravitational-wave bursts from cosmic string loops in the data of Advanced LIGO 2015-2016 observing run (O1). No evidence of such signals was found in the data, and as a result we set upper limits on the cosmic string parameters for three recent loop distribution models. In this paper, we initially derive constraints on the string tension Gμ and the intercommutation probability, using not only the burst analysis performed on the O1 data set but also results from the previously published LIGO stochastic O1 analysis, pulsar timing arrays, cosmic microwave background and big-bang nucleosynthesis experiments. We show that these data sets are complementary in that they probe gravitational waves produced by cosmic string loops during very different epochs. Finally, we show that the data sets exclude large parts of the parameter space of the three loop distribution models we consider

Directional Limits on Persistent Gravitational Waves from Advanced LIGO’s First Observing Run

We employ gravitational-wave radiometry to map the stochastic gravitational wave background expected from a variety of contributing mechanisms and test the assumption of isotropy using data from the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory’s (aLIGO) first observing run. We also search for persistent gravitational waves from point sources with only minimal assumptions over the 20–1726 Hz frequency band. Finding no evidence of gravitational waves from either point sources or a stochastic background, we set limits at 90% confidence. For broadband point sources, we report upper limits on the gravitational wave energy flux per unit frequency in the range Fα;ΘðfÞ < ð0.1–56Þ × 10−8 erg cm−2 s−1 Hz−1ðf=25 HzÞα−1 depending on the sky location Θ and the spectral power index α. For extended sources, we report upper limits on the fractional gravitational wave energy density required to close the Universe of Ωðf; ΘÞ < ð0.39–7.6Þ × 10−8 sr−1ðf=25 HzÞα depending on Θ and α. Directed searches for narrowband gravitational waves from astrophysically interesting objects (Scorpius X-1, Supernova 1987 A, and the Galactic Center) yield median frequency-dependent limits on strain amplitude of h0 < ð6.7; 5.5; and 7.0Þ × 10−25, respectively, at the most sensitive detector frequencies between 130–175 Hz. This represents a mean improvement of a factor of 2 across the band compared to previous searches of this kind for these sky locations, considering the different quantities of strain constrained in each case

Full band all-sky search for periodic gravitational waves in the O1 LIGO data

We report on a new all-sky search for periodic gravitational waves in the frequency band 475–2000 Hz and with a frequency time derivative in the range of ½−1.0; þ0.1 × 10−8 Hz=s. Potential signals could be produced by a nearby spinning and slightly nonaxisymmetric isolated neutron star in our Galaxy. This search uses the data from Advanced LIGO’s first observational run O1. No gravitational-wave signals were observed, and upper limits were placed on their strengths. For completeness, results from the separately published low-frequency search 20–475 Hz are included as well. Our lowest upper limit on worst-case (linearly polarized) strain amplitude h0 is ∼4 × 10−25 near 170 Hz, while at the high end of our frequency range, we achieve a worst-case upper limit of 1.3 × 10−24. For a circularly polarized source (most favorable orientation), the smallest upper limit obtained is ∼1.5 × 10−25