Do local and global factors impact the emerging markets' sovereign yield curves? Evidence from a data-rich environment

This paper investigates the relation between yield curve and macroeconomic factors for ten emerging sovereign bond markets using the sample from January 2006 to April 2019. To this end, the diffusion indices obtained under four categories (global variables, inflation, domestic financial variables, and economic activity) are incorporated by estimating dynamic panel data regressions together with the yield curve factors. Besides, in order to capture dynamic interaction between yield curve and macroeconomic/financial factors, a panel VAR analysis based on the system GMM approach is utilized. Empirical results suggest that the level factor responds to shocks originated from inflation, domestic financial variables and global variables. Furthermore, the slope factor is affected by shocks in global variables, and the curvature factor appears to be influenced by domestic financial variables. We also show that macroeconomic/financial factors captures significant predictive information over yield curve factors by running individual country factor-augmented predictive regressions and variable selection algorithms such ridge regression, LASSO and Elastic Net. Our findings have important implications for policymakers and fund managers by explaining the underlying forces of movements in the yield curve and forecasting accurately dynamics of yield curve factors.PostprintPeer reviewe

Elevated gamma glutamyl transferase levels are associated with the location of acute pulmonary embolism. Cross-sectional evaluation in hospital setting

ABSTRACT CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: The location of embolism is associated with clinical findings and disease severity in cases of acute pulmonary embolism. The level of gamma-glutamyl transferase increases under oxidative stress-related conditions. In this study, we investigated whether gamma-glutamyl transferase levels could predict the location of pulmonary embolism. DESIGN AND SETTING: Hospital-based cross-sectional study at Cumhuriyet University, Sivas, Turkey. METHODS : 120 patients who were diagnosed with acute pulmonary embolism through computed tomography-assisted pulmonary angiography were evaluated. They were divided into two main groups (proximally and distally located), and subsequently into subgroups according to thrombus localization as follows: first group (thrombus in main pulmonary artery; n = 9); second group (thrombus in main pulmonary artery branches; n = 71); third group (thrombus in pulmonary artery segmental branches; n = 34); and fourth group (thrombus in pulmonary artery subsegmental branches; n = 8). RESULTS : Gamma-glutamyl transferase levels on admission, heart rate, oxygen saturation, right ventricular dilatation/hypokinesia, pulmonary artery systolic pressure and cardiopulmonary resuscitation requirement showed prognostic significance in univariate analysis. The multivariate logistic regression model showed that gamma-glutamyl transferase level on admission (odds ratio, OR = 1.044; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.011-1.079; P = 0.009) and pulmonary artery systolic pressure (OR = 1.063; 95% CI: 1.005-1.124; P = 0.033) remained independently associated with proximally localized thrombus in pulmonary artery. CONCLUSIONS : The findings revealed a significant association between increased existing embolism load in the pulmonary artery and increased serum gamma-glutamyl transferase levels

Determination of the Failure Susceptibility of a Flat Die used in Biomass Pelletizing Machines by means of FEA based Design Exploration

This paper focuses on a design analysis of a flat die used in an agricultural biomass pelletizing machine by considering its high pressure loading failure susceptibility. The pellet die is one of the key elements in a pelletizing machine, and the strength of the die plate has an important role on the pellet’s quality and producibility. In fact, higher compression ratio (CR - the ratio of effective length and the internal (press channel) diameter of a die orifice/hole) will provide denser pellets which is a desired phenomenon, however, if the compression pressure is too high or CR is not determined to compensate high pressures, the raw material may block the die and the die may experience deformation failure due to overloading. If the desire is to make high quality pellets with no die failure, optimum flat die hole/orifice design parameters should be used which can provide the best CR for a specific compression pressure. This is the core motivation of this research. In this study, Finite Element Analysis (FEA) based design exploration has been utilised for a sample single hole flat die with various die geometry parameters against various compression pressure values. Following the FEA design exploration undertaken, a response surface analysis (RSA) was carried out and then estimation models (empirical equations), which could be used to calculate parameters of the die hole/orifice against applied compression pressure and failure susceptibility based on structural stress and deformation, was described. The results gained from the RSA has indicated that the estimation models have high R2 values (higher than 98 %) which could be used for adequately predicting failure susceptibility indicators. In addition to this, FEM-based simulation print-outs have provided useful stress distribution visuals on the die against different compression pressure values. Most especially, the study has highlighted that a detailed structural optimisation study may be scheduled in order to obtain die geometry design parameters with a focus on the failure susceptibility

The clinical and genetic spectrum of autosomal-recessive TOR1A-related disorders.

In the field of rare diseases, progress in molecular diagnostics led to the recognition that variants linked to autosomal-dominant neurodegenerative diseases of later onset can, in the context of biallelic inheritance, cause devastating neurodevelopmental disorders and infantile or childhood-onset neurodegeneration. TOR1A-associated arthrogryposis multiplex congenita 5 (AMC5) is a rare neurodevelopmental disorder arising from biallelic variants in TOR1A, a gene that in the heterozygous state is associated to torsion dystonia-1 (DYT1 or DYT-TOR1A), an early-onset dystonia with reduced penetrance. While 15 individuals with TOR1A-AMC5 have been reported (less than 10 in detail), a systematic investigation of the full disease-associated spectrum has not been conducted. Here, we assess the clinical, radiological and molecular characteristics of 57 individuals from 40 families with biallelic variants in TOR1A. Median age at last follow-up was 3 years (0-24 years). Most individuals presented with severe congenital flexion contractures (95%) and variable developmental delay (79%). Motor symptoms were reported in 79% and included lower limb spasticity and pyramidal signs, as well as gait disturbances. Facial dysmorphism was an integral part of the phenotype, with key features being a broad/full nasal tip, narrowing of the forehead and full cheeks. Analysis of disease-associated manifestations delineated a phenotypic spectrum ranging from normal cognition and mild gait disturbance to congenital arthrogryposis, global developmental delay, intellectual disability, absent speech and inability to walk. In a subset, the presentation was consistent with fetal akinesia deformation sequence with severe intrauterine abnormalities. Survival was 71% with higher mortality in males. Death occurred at a median age of 1.2 months (1 week - 9 years) due to respiratory failure, cardiac arrest, or sepsis. Analysis of brain MRI studies identified non-specific neuroimaging features, including a hypoplastic corpus callosum (72%), foci of signal abnormality in the subcortical and periventricular white matter (55%), diffuse white matter volume loss (45%), mega cisterna magna (36%) and arachnoid cysts (27%). The molecular spectrum included 22 distinct variants, defining a mutational hotspot in the C-terminal domain of the Torsin-1A protein. Genotype-phenotype analysis revealed an association of missense variants in the 3-helix bundle domain to an attenuated phenotype, while missense variants near the Walker A/B motif as well as biallelic truncating variants were linked to early death. In summary, this systematic cross-sectional analysis of a large cohort of individuals with biallelic TOR1A variants across a wide age-range delineates the clinical and genetic spectrum of TOR1A-related autosomal-recessive disease and highlights potential predictors for disease severity and survival

Epidemiology, practice of ventilation and outcome for patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications

BACKGROUND Limited information exists about the epidemiology and outcome of surgical patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs), and how intraoperative ventilation was managed in these patients. OBJECTIVES To determine the incidence of surgical patients at increased risk of PPCs, and to compare the intraoperative ventilation management and postoperative outcomes with patients at low risk of PPCs. DESIGN This was a prospective international 1-week observational study using the ‘Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia risk score’ (ARISCAT score) for PPC for risk stratification. PATIENTS AND SETTING Adult patients requiring intraoperative ventilation during general anaesthesia for surgery in 146 hospitals across 29 countries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcome was the incidence of patients at increased risk of PPCs based on the ARISCAT score. Secondary outcomes included intraoperative ventilatory management and clinical outcomes. RESULTS A total of 9864 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The incidence of patients at increased risk was 28.4%. The most frequently chosen tidal volume (VT) size was 500 ml, or 7 to 9 ml kg1 predicted body weight, slightly lower in patients at increased risk of PPCs. Levels of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) were slightly higher in patients at increased risk of PPCs, with 14.3% receiving more than 5 cmH2O PEEP compared with 7.6% in patients at low risk of PPCs (P < 0.001). Patients with a predicted preoperative increased risk of PPCs developed PPCs more frequently: 19 versus 7%, relative risk (RR) 3.16 (95% confidence interval 2.76 to 3.61), P < 0.001) and had longer hospital stays. The only ventilatory factor associated with the occurrence of PPCs was the peak pressure. CONCLUSION The incidence of patients with a predicted increased risk of PPCs is high. A large proportion of patients receive high VT and low PEEP levels. PPCs occur frequently in patients at increased risk, with worse clinical outcome

Antiinflammatory Therapy with Canakinumab for Atherosclerotic Disease

Background: Experimental and clinical data suggest that reducing inflammation without affecting lipid levels may reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Yet, the inflammatory hypothesis of atherothrombosis has remained unproved. Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial of canakinumab, a therapeutic monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin-1β, involving 10,061 patients with previous myocardial infarction and a high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level of 2 mg or more per liter. The trial compared three doses of canakinumab (50 mg, 150 mg, and 300 mg, administered subcutaneously every 3 months) with placebo. The primary efficacy end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: At 48 months, the median reduction from baseline in the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level was 26 percentage points greater in the group that received the 50-mg dose of canakinumab, 37 percentage points greater in the 150-mg group, and 41 percentage points greater in the 300-mg group than in the placebo group. Canakinumab did not reduce lipid levels from baseline. At a median follow-up of 3.7 years, the incidence rate for the primary end point was 4.50 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group, 4.11 events per 100 person-years in the 50-mg group, 3.86 events per 100 person-years in the 150-mg group, and 3.90 events per 100 person-years in the 300-mg group. The hazard ratios as compared with placebo were as follows: in the 50-mg group, 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.07; P = 0.30); in the 150-mg group, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98; P = 0.021); and in the 300-mg group, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.031). The 150-mg dose, but not the other doses, met the prespecified multiplicity-adjusted threshold for statistical significance for the primary end point and the secondary end point that additionally included hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization (hazard ratio vs. placebo, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.95; P = 0.005). Canakinumab was associated with a higher incidence of fatal infection than was placebo. There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for all canakinumab doses vs. placebo, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P = 0.31). Conclusions: Antiinflammatory therapy targeting the interleukin-1β innate immunity pathway with canakinumab at a dose of 150 mg every 3 months led to a significantly lower rate of recurrent cardiovascular events than placebo, independent of lipid-level lowering. (Funded by Novartis; CANTOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01327846.

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

Background Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide.Methods A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study-a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital.Findings Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.85 [95% CI 2.58-5.75]; p&lt;0.0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63.0% vs 82.7%; OR 0.35 [0.23-0.53]; p&lt;0.0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer.Interpretation Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised

Epidemiology, practice of ventilation and outcome for patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications: LAS VEGAS - An observational study in 29 countries

BACKGROUND Limited information exists about the epidemiology and outcome of surgical patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs), and how intraoperative ventilation was managed in these patients. OBJECTIVES To determine the incidence of surgical patients at increased risk of PPCs, and to compare the intraoperative ventilation management and postoperative outcomes with patients at low risk of PPCs. DESIGN This was a prospective international 1-week observational study using the ‘Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia risk score’ (ARISCAT score) for PPC for risk stratification. PATIENTS AND SETTING Adult patients requiring intraoperative ventilation during general anaesthesia for surgery in 146 hospitals across 29 countries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcome was the incidence of patients at increased risk of PPCs based on the ARISCAT score. Secondary outcomes included intraoperative ventilatory management and clinical outcomes. RESULTS A total of 9864 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The incidence of patients at increased risk was 28.4%. The most frequently chosen tidal volume (V T) size was 500 ml, or 7 to 9 ml kg−1 predicted body weight, slightly lower in patients at increased risk of PPCs. Levels of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) were slightly higher in patients at increased risk of PPCs, with 14.3% receiving more than 5 cmH2O PEEP compared with 7.6% in patients at low risk of PPCs (P ˂ 0.001). Patients with a predicted preoperative increased risk of PPCs developed PPCs more frequently: 19 versus 7%, relative risk (RR) 3.16 (95% confidence interval 2.76 to 3.61), P ˂ 0.001) and had longer hospital stays. The only ventilatory factor associated with the occurrence of PPCs was the peak pressure. CONCLUSION The incidence of patients with a predicted increased risk of PPCs is high. A large proportion of patients receive high V T and low PEEP levels. PPCs occur frequently in patients at increased risk, with worse clinical outcome.</p