PLoS Med

Background In 2014, the government of Togo implemented a pilot unconditional cash transfer (UCT) program in rural villages that aimed at improving children’s nutrition, health, and protection. It combined monthly UCTs (approximately US$8.40 /month) with a package of community activities (including behavior change communication [BCC] sessions, home visits, and integrated community case management of childhood illnesses and acute malnutrition [ICCM-Nut]) delivered to mother–child pairs during the first “1,000 days” of life. We primarily investigated program impact at population level on children’s height-for-age z-scores (HAZs) and secondarily on stunting (HAZ < −2) and intermediary outcomes including household’s food insecurity, mother–child pairs’ diet and health, delivery in a health facility and low birth weight (LBW), women’s knowledge, and physical intimate partner violence (IPV). Methods and findings We implemented a parallel-cluster–randomized controlled trial, in which 162 villages were randomized into either an intervention arm (UCTs + package of community activities, n = 82) or a control arm (package of community activities only, n = 80). Two different representative samples of children aged 6–29 months and their mothers were surveyed in each arm, one before the intervention in 2014 (control: n = 1,301, intervention: n = 1,357), the other 2 years afterwards in 2016 (control: n = 996, intervention: n = 1,035). Difference-in-differences (DD) estimates of impact were calculated, adjusting for clustering. Children’s average age was 17.4 (± 0.24 SE) months in the control arm and 17.6 (± 0.19 SE) months in the intervention arm at baseline. UCTs had a protective effect on HAZ (DD = +0.25 z-scores, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.01–0.50, p = 0.039), which deteriorated in the control arm while remaining stable in the intervention arm, but had no impact on stunting (DD = −6.2 percentage points [pp], relative odds ratio [ROR]: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.51–1.06, p = 0.097). UCTs positively impacted both mothers’ and children’s (18–23 months) consumption of animal source foods (ASFs) (respectively, DD = +4.5 pp, ROR: 2.24, 95% CI: 1.09–4.61, p = 0.029 and DD = +9.1 pp, ROR: 2.65, 95% CI: 1.01–6.98, p = 0.048) and household food insecurity (DD = −10.7 pp, ROR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.43–0.91, p = 0.016). UCTs did not impact on reported child morbidity 2 week’s prior to report (DD = −3.5 pp, ROR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.56–1.14, p = 0.214) but reduced the financial barrier to seeking healthcare for sick children (DD = −26.4 pp, ROR: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.08–0.66, p = 0.006). Women who received cash had higher odds of delivering in a health facility (DD = +10.6 pp, ROR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.10–2.13, p = 0.012) and lower odds of giving birth to babies with birth weights (BWs) <2,500 g (DD = −11.8, ROR: 0.29, 95% CI: 0.10–0.82, p = 0.020). Positive effects were also found on women’s knowledge (DD = +14.8, ROR: 1.86, 95% CI: 1.32–2.62, p < 0.001) and physical IPV (DD = −7.9 pp, ROR: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.36–0.99, p = 0.048). Study limitations included the short evaluation period (24 months) and the low coverage of UCTs, which might have reduced the program’s impact. Conclusions UCTs targeting the first “1,000 days” had a protective effect on child’s linear growth in rural areas of Togo. Their simultaneous positive effects on various immediate, underlying, and basic causes of malnutrition certainly contributed to this ultimate impact. The positive impacts observed on pregnancy- and birth-related outcomes call for further attention to the conception period in nutrition-sensitive programs

Development of a dichotomous indicator for population-level assessment of the dietary diversity of women of reproductive age

Background: Dietary diversity is a key element of diet quality but diets of women of reproductive age (WRA; 15-49 y) in resource-poor settings are often deficient in a range of micronutrients. Previous work demonstrated relationships between simple food group diversity indicators (FGI) and micronutrient adequacy among WRA. For operational and advocacy purposes, however, there is strong demand for a dichotomous indicator reflecting an acceptable level of dietary diversity. Objective: To develop a dichotomous indicator of dietary diversity among WRA. Methods: We performed a secondary analysis of 9 data sets containing quantitative dietary data from WRA in resource-poor settings (N total = 4,166). From the raw dietary data we calculated an individual "mean probability of adequacy" (MPA) across 11 micronutrients. Several candidate FGI were constructed. Indicator performance in predicting MPA > 0.60 was assessed within each data set using receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) analysis and sensitivity/specificity analysis at various FGI cut-offs. The analysis was performed separately for non-pregnant and non-lactating (NPNL) and for lactating women. Results: We identified 2 "best candidate" dichotomous indicators based on 9- or 10-point food group scores (FGI-9 and FGI-10) with a cut-off of 5 food groups or more. Both were significantly correlated to MPA in each site (P 5 of 10 defined food groups reflects "Minimum dietary diversity for women of reproductive age" (MDD-W). According to the conclusions of a consensus meeting of experts, this indicator is well suited for population-level assessment, advocacy, and maybe also for tracking of change in dietary diversity across time

Defining a Dichotomous Indicator for Population-Level Assessment of Dietary Diversity Among Pregnant Adolescent Girls and Women: A Secondary Analysis of Quantitative 24-h Recalls from Rural Settings in Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, India, and Nepal

BACKGROUND: The Minimum Dietary Diversity for Women of Reproductive Age (MDD-W) indicator was validated as a proxy of micronutrient adequacy among nonpregnant women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). At that time, indeed, there was insufficient data to validate the indicator among pregnant women, who face higher micronutrient requirements. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to validate a minimum food group consumption threshold, out of the 10 food groups used to construct MDD-W, to be used as a population-level indicator of higher micronutrient adequacy among pregnant women aged 15–49 y in LMICs. METHODS: We used secondary quantitative 24-h recall data from 6 surveys in 4 LMICs (Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, India, and Nepal, total n = 4909). We computed the 10-food group Women's Dietary Diversity Score (WDDS-10) and calculated the mean probability of adequacy (MPA) of 11 micronutrients. Linear regression models were fitted to assess the associations between WDDS-10 and MPA. Sensitivity, specificity, and proportion of individuals correctly classified were used to assess the performance of MDD-W in predicting an MPA of >0.60. RESULTS: In the pooled sample, median values (interquartile range) of WDDS-10 and MPA were 3 (1) and 0.20 (0.34), respectively, whereas the proportion of pregnant women with an MPA of >0.60 was 9.6%. The WDDS-10 was significantly positively associated with MPA in each survey. Although the acceptable food group consumption threshold varied between 4 and 6 food groups across surveys, the threshold of 5 showed the highest performance in the pooled sample with good sensitivity (62%), very good specificity (81%), and percentage of correctly classified individuals (79%). CONCLUSIONS: The WDDS-10 is a good predictor of dietary micronutrient adequacy among pregnant women aged 15–49 y in LMICs. Moreover, the threshold of 5 or more food groups for the MDD-W indicator may be extended to all women of reproductive age, regardless of their physiologic status

How prices and income influence global patterns in saturated fat intake by age, sex and world region: a cross-sectional analysis of 160 countries

Objective When considering proposals to improve diets, it is important to understand how factors like price and income can affect saturated fat (SF) intake and demand. In this study, we examine and estimate the influence of price and income on intake across 160 countries, by age and sex, and derive sensitivity measures (price elasticities) that vary by age, sex and world region. Design We econometrically estimate intake responsiveness to income and prices across countries, accounting for differences by world region, age and sex. Intake data by age, sex and country were obtained from the 2018 Global Dietary Database. These data were then linked to global price data for select food groups from the World Bank International Comparison Programme and income data from the World Development Indicators Databank (World Bank). Results Intake differences due to price were highly significant, with a 1% increase in price associated with a lower SF intake (% energy/d) of about 4.3 percentage points. We also find significant differences across regions. In high-income countries, median (age 40) intake reductions were 1.4, 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points, given a 1% increase in the price of meat, dairy, and oils and fats, respectively. Price elasticities varied with age but not sex. Intake differences due to income were insignificant when regional binary variables were included in the analysis. Conclusion The results of this study show heterogeneous associations among prices and intake within and across countries. Policymakers should consider these heterogeneous effects as they address global nutrition and health challenges. © 2024 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved.The Global Dietary Database was supported by a grant from the Bill & Melina Gates Foundation: grant # OPP1176682

Burdens of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages in 184 countries

The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, an updated and comprehensive assessment of the global burden attributable to SSBs remains scarce. Here we estimated SSB-attributable T2D and CVD burdens across 184 countries in 1990 and 2020 globally, regionally and nationally, incorporating data from the Global Dietary Database, jointly stratified by age, sex, educational attainment and urbanicity. In 2020, 2.2 million (95% uncertainty interval 2.0–2.3) new T2D cases and 1.2 million (95% uncertainty interval 1.1–1.3) new CVD cases were attributable to SSBs worldwide, representing 9.8% and 3.1%, respectively, of all incident cases. Globally, proportional SSB-attributable burdens were higher among men versus women, younger versus older adults, higher- versus lower-educated adults, and adults in urban versus rural areas. By world region, the highest SSB-attributable percentage burdens were in Latin America and the Caribbean (T2D: 24.4%; CVD: 11.3%) and sub-Saharan Africa (T2D: 21.5%; CVD: 10.5%). From 1990 to 2020, the largest proportional increases in SSB-attributable incident T2D and CVD cases were in sub-Saharan Africa (+8.8% and +4.4%, respectively). Our study highlights the countries and subpopulations most affected by cardiometabolic disease associated with SSB consumption, assisting in shaping effective policies and interventions to reduce these burdens globally

Children's and adolescents' rising animal-source food intakes in 1990-2018 were impacted by age, region, parental education and urbanicity

Animal-source foods (ASF) provide nutrition for children and adolescents physical and cognitive development. Here, we use data from the Global Dietary Database and Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify global, regional and national ASF intakes between 1990 and 2018 by age group across 185 countries, representing 93% of the worlds child population. Mean ASF intake was 1.9 servings per day, representing 16% of children consuming at least three daily servings. Intake was similar between boys and girls, but higher among urban children with educated parents. Consumption varied by age from 0.6 at <1 year to 2.5 servings per day at 1519 years. Between 1990 and 2018, mean ASF intake increased by 0.5 servings per week, with increases in all regions except sub-Saharan Africa. In 2018, total ASF consumption was highest in Russia, Brazil, Mexico and Turkey, and lowest in Uganda, India, Kenya and Bangladesh. These findings can inform policy to address malnutrition through targeted ASF consumption programmes. (c) 2023, The Author(s)

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents’ growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1–6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5–19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income&nbsp;countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was &lt;1.1 kg m–2 in the vast majority of&nbsp;countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified

Incident type 2 diabetes attributable to suboptimal diet in 184 countries

The global burden of diet-attributable type 2 diabetes (T2D) is not well established. This risk assessment model estimated T2D incidence among adults attributable to direct and body weight-mediated effects of 11 dietary factors in 184 countries in 1990 and 2018. In 2018, suboptimal intake of these dietary factors was estimated to be attributable to 14.1 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 13.814.4 million) incident T2D cases, representing 70.3% (68.871.8%) of new cases globally. Largest T2D burdens were attributable to insufficient whole-grain intake (26.1% (25.027.1%)), excess refined rice and wheat intake (24.6% (22.327.2%)) and excess processed meat intake (20.3% (18.323.5%)). Across regions, highest proportional burdens were in central and eastern Europe and central Asia (85.6% (83.487.7%)) and Latin America and the Caribbean (81.8% (80.183.4%)); and lowest proportional burdens were in South Asia (55.4% (52.160.7%)). Proportions of diet-attributable T2D were generally larger in men than in women and were inversely correlated with age. Diet-attributable T2D was generally larger among urban versus rural residents and higher versus lower educated individuals, except in high-income countries, central and eastern Europe and central Asia, where burdens were larger in rural residents and in lower educated individuals. Compared with 1990, global diet-attributable T2D increased by 2.6 absolute percentage points (8.6 million more cases) in 2018, with variation in these trends by world region and dietary factor. These findings inform nutritional priorities and clinical and public health planning to improve dietary quality and reduce T2D globally. (c) 2023, The Author(s)

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants

Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18.5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18.5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), = 40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19.2 million adult participants (9.9 million men and 9.3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21.7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21.3-22.1) in 1975 to 24.2 kg/m(2) (24.0-24.4) in 2014 in men, and from 22.1 kg/m(2) (21.7-22.5) in 1975 to 24.4 kg/m(2) (24.2-24.6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21.4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29.2 kg/m(2) (28.6-29.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21.8 kg/m(2) (21.4-22.3) in south Asia to 32.2 kg/m(2) (31.5-32.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13.8% (10.5-17.4) to 8.8% (7.4-10.3) in men and from 14.6% (11.6-17.9) to 9.7% (8.3-11.1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23.4% (17.8-29.2) in men and 24.0% (18.9-29.3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3.2% (2.4-4.1) in 1975 to 10.8% (9.7-12.0) in 2014 in men, and from 6.4% (5.1-7.8) to 14.9% (13.6-16.1) in women. 2.3% (2.0-2.7) of the world's men and 5.0% (4.4-5.6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI = 35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0.64% (0.46-0.86) in men and 1.6% (1.3-1.9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.Wellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada