Integrating errors into developmental assessment: \u27time\u27 for ages 8-13

It is widely agreed that measurement is of paramount importance to students&rsquo; overall development in mathematics. This paper describes a developmental &lsquo;map&rsquo; of students&rsquo; understanding and skills in measurement, focussed on the topic of Time, that integrates correct and incorrect student ideas. The map is based on a Rasch analysis of data from a large-scale UK national survey for standardising assessment for children from 5 to 14 years of age. It is demonstrated how a partial credit strategy enables a developmental map to be constructed to show students&rsquo; strengths and weaknesses in a meaningful and useful summative and formative manner. This map provides evidence, of both a summative and a formative nature, which may enable teachers to craft appropriate and successful learning experiences for children.<br /

Archiving multi-epoch data and the discovery of variables in the near infrared

We present a description of the design and usage of a new synoptic pipeline and database model for time series photometry in the VISTA Data Flow System (VDFS). All UKIRT-WFCAM data and most of the VISTA main survey data will be processed and archived by the VDFS. Much of these data are multi-epoch, useful for finding moving and variable objects. Our new database design allows the users to easily find rare objects of these types amongst the huge volume of data being produced by modern survey telescopes. Its effectiveness is demonstrated through examples using Data Release 5 of the UKIDSS Deep Extragalactic Survey (DXS) and the WFCAM standard star data. The synoptic pipeline provides additional quality control and calibration to these data in the process of generating accurate light-curves. We find that 0.6+-0.1% of stars and 2.3+-0.6% of galaxies in the UKIDSS-DXS with K<15 mag are variable with amplitudes \Delta K>0.015 magComment: 30 pages, 31 figures, MNRAS, in press Minor changes from previous version due to refereeing and proof-readin

Managing Injuries of the Neck Trial (MINT) : design of a randomised controlled trial of treatments for whiplash associated disorders

Background: A substantial proportion of patients with whiplash injuries develop chronic symptoms. However, the best treatment of acute injuries to prevent long-term problems is uncertain. A stepped care treatment pathway has been proposed, in which patients are given advice and education at their initial visit to the emergency department (ED), followed by review at three weeks and physiotherapy for those with persisting symptoms. MINT is a two-stage randomised controlled trial to evaluate two components of such a pathway: 1. use of The Whiplash Book versus usual advice when patients first attend the emergency department; 2. referral to physiotherapy versus reinforcement of advice for patients with continuing symptoms at three weeks. Methods: Evaluation of the Whiplash Book versus usual advice uses a cluster randomised design in emergency departments of eight NHS Trusts. Eligible patients are identified by clinicians in participating emergency departments and are sent a study questionnaire within a week of their ED attendance. Three thousand participants will be included. Patients with persisting symptoms three weeks after their ED attendance are eligible to join an individually randomised study of physiotherapy versus reinforcement of the advice given in ED. Six hundred participants will be randomised. Follow-up is at 4, 8 and 12 months after their ED attendance. Primary outcome is the Neck Disability Index (NDI), and secondary outcomes include quality of life and time to return to work and normal activities. An economic evaluation is being carried out. Conclusion: This paper describes the protocol and operational aspects of a complex intervention trial based in NHS emergency and physiotherapy departments, evaluating two components of a stepped-care approach to the treatment of whiplash injuries. The trial uses two randomisations, with the first stage being cluster randomised and the second individually randomised

Risk-Targeted Selection of Agricultural Holdings for Post-Epidemic Surveillance: Estimation of Efficiency Gains

Current post-epidemic sero-surveillance uses random selection of animal holdings. A better strategy may be to estimate the benefits gained by sampling each farm and use this to target selection. In this study we estimate the probability of undiscovered infection for sheep farms in Devon after the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak using the combination of a previously published model of daily infection risk and a simple model of probability of discovery of infection during the outbreak. This allows comparison of the system sensitivity (ability to detect infection in the area) of arbitrary, random sampling compared to risk-targeted selection across a full range of sampling budgets. We show that it is possible to achieve 95% system sensitivity by sampling, on average, 945 farms with random sampling and 184 farms with risk-targeted sampling. We also examine the effect of ordering samples by risk to expedite return to a disease-free status. Risk ordering the sampling process results in detection of positive farms, if present, 15.6 days sooner than with randomly ordered sampling, assuming 50 farms are tested per day

Modifiable risk factors remain significant causes of medium term mortality after first time Coronary artery bypass grafting

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Whilst there is much current data on early outcomes after Coronary artery bypass grafting(CABG), there is relatively little data on medium term outcomes in the current era. The purpose of this study is to present a single surgeon series comprising of all first time CABG patients operated on with the technique of cross clamp fibrillation from Feb-1996 to through to Jan-2003, and to seek risk factors for medium term mortality in these patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data was collected from Hospital Episode Statistics and departmental patient administration and tracking systems and cross checked using database techniques. Patient outcomes were searched using the National Health Service strategic tracing service.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mean follow up was 5.3 years(0–9.4 years) and was complete for all patients. 30-day survival was 98.4%, 1-year survival 95% and 8-year survival 79%. Cox-regression analysis revealed that several modifiable pre-operative risk factors remain significant predictors of medium term mortality, including Diabetes(Hazard Ratio(HR) 1.73, 95%CI 1.21–2.45), Chromic obstructive pulmonary disease(HR 2.02, 95%CI 1.09–3.72), Peripheral vascular disease(HR 1.68, 95%CI 1.13–2.5), Body mass index>30(HR 1.54, 95%CI 1.08–2.20) and current smoker at operation(HR 1.67, 95%CI 1.03–2.72). However hypertension(HR 1.31, 95%CI 0.95–1.82) and Hypercholestrolaemia(HR 0.81, 95%CI 0.58–1.13) were not predictive which may reflect adequate post-operative control.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Coronary artery bypass surgery using cross clamp fibrillation is associated with a very low operative mortality. Medium term survival is also good but risk factors such as smoking at operation, Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, obesity and diabetes negatively impact this survival and should be aggressively treated in the years post-surgery.</p

The genomes of two key bumblebee species with primitive eusocial organization

Background: The shift from solitary to social behavior is one of the major evolutionary transitions. Primitively eusocial bumblebees are uniquely placed to illuminate the evolution of highly eusocial insect societies. Bumblebees are also invaluable natural and agricultural pollinators, and there is widespread concern over recent population declines in some species. High-quality genomic data will inform key aspects of bumblebee biology, including susceptibility to implicated population viability threats. Results: We report the high quality draft genome sequences of Bombus terrestris and Bombus impatiens, two ecologically dominant bumblebees and widely utilized study species. Comparing these new genomes to those of the highly eusocial honeybee Apis mellifera and other Hymenoptera, we identify deeply conserved similarities, as well as novelties key to the biology of these organisms. Some honeybee genome features thought to underpin advanced eusociality are also present in bumblebees, indicating an earlier evolution in the bee lineage. Xenobiotic detoxification and immune genes are similarly depauperate in bumblebees and honeybees, and multiple categories of genes linked to social organization, including development and behavior, show high conservation. Key differences identified include a bias in bumblebee chemoreception towards gustation from olfaction, and striking differences in microRNAs, potentially responsible for gene regulation underlying social and other traits. Conclusions: These two bumblebee genomes provide a foundation for post-genomic research on these key pollinators and insect societies. Overall, gene repertoires suggest that the route to advanced eusociality in bees was mediated by many small changes in many genes and processes, and not by notable expansion or depauperation

Search for Gravitational Waves from Primordial Black Hole Binary Coalescences in the Galactic Halo

We use data from the second science run of the LIGO gravitational-wave detectors to search for the gravitational waves from primordial black hole (PBH) binary coalescence with component masses in the range 0.2--$1.0 M_\odot$. The analysis requires a signal to be found in the data from both LIGO observatories, according to a set of coincidence criteria. No inspiral signals were found. Assuming a spherical halo with core radius 5 kpc extending to 50 kpc containing non-spinning black holes with masses in the range 0.2--$1.0 M_\odot$, we place an observational upper limit on the rate of PBH coalescence of 63 per year per Milky Way halo (MWH) with 90% confidence.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, to be submitted to Phys. Rev.

Variation in helper effort among cooperatively breeding bird species is consistent with Hamilton's Rule.

Investment by helpers in cooperative breeding systems is extremely variable among species, but this variation is currently unexplained. Inclusive fitness theory predicts that, all else being equal, cooperative investment should correlate positively with the relatedness of helpers to the recipients of their care. We test this prediction in a comparative analysis of helper investment in 36 cooperatively breeding bird species. We show that species-specific helper contributions to cooperative brood care increase as the mean relatedness between helpers and recipients increases. Helper contributions are also related to the sex ratio of helpers, but neither group size nor the proportion of nests with helpers influence helper effort. Our findings support the hypothesis that variation in helping behaviour among cooperatively breeding birds is consistent with Hamilton's rule, indicating a key role for kin selection in the evolution of cooperative investment in social birds

Search for rare quark-annihilation decays, B --> Ds(*) Phi

We report on searches for B- --> Ds- Phi and B- --> Ds*- Phi. In the context of the Standard Model, these decays are expected to be highly suppressed since they proceed through annihilation of the b and u-bar quarks in the B- meson. Our results are based on 234 million Upsilon(4S) --> B Bbar decays collected with the BABAR detector at SLAC. We find no evidence for these decays, and we set Bayesian 90% confidence level upper limits on the branching fractions BF(B- --> Ds- Phi) Ds*- Phi)<1.2x10^(-5). These results are consistent with Standard Model expectations.Comment: 8 pages, 3 postscript figues, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (Rapid Communications

Scratching the surface: Elastic rotations beneath nanoscratch and nanoindentation tests

In this paper, we investigate the residual deformation field in the vicinity of nanoscratch tests using two orientations of a Berkovich tip on an (001) Cu single crystal. We compare the deformation with that from indentation, in an attempt to understand the mechanisms of deformation in tangential sliding. The lattice rotation fields are mapped experimentally using high-resolution electron backscatter diffraction (HR-EBSD) on cross-sections prepared using focused ion beam (FIB). A physically-based crystal plasticity finite element model (CPFEM) is used to simulate the lattice rotation fields, and provide insight into the 3D rotation field surrounding a nano-scratch experiment, as it transitions from an initial static indentation to a steady-state scratch. The CPFEM simulations capture the experimental rotation fields with good fidelity, and show how the rotations about the scratch direction are reversed as the indenter moves away from the initial indentation