Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Geographical and temporal distribution of SARS-CoV-2 clades in the WHO European Region, January to June 2020

We show the distribution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) genetic clades over time and between countries and outline potential genomic surveillance objectives. We applied three genomic nomenclature systems to all sequence data from the World Health Organization European Region available until 10 July 2020. We highlight the importance of real-time sequencing and data dissemination in a pandemic situation, compare the nomenclatures and lay a foundation for future European genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Rapamycin Improves the Response of Effector and Memory CD8(+) T Cells Induced by Immunization With ASP2 of Trypanosoma cruzi

Deficiency in memory formation and increased immunosenescence are pivotal features of Trypanosoma cruzi infection proposed to play a role in parasite persistence and disease development. The vaccination protocol that consists in a prime with plasmid DNA followed by the boost with a deficient recombinant human adenovirus type 5, both carrying the ASP2 gene of T. cruzi, is a powerful strategy to elicit effector memory CD8(+) T-cells against this parasite. In virus infections, the inhibition of mTOR, a kinase involved in several biological processes, improves the response of memory CD8(+) T-cells. Therefore, our aim was to assess the role of rapamycin, the pharmacological inhibitor of mTOR, in CD8(+) T response against T. cruzi induced by heterologous prime-boost vaccine. For this purpose, C57BL/6 or A/Sn mice were immunized and daily treated with rapamycin for 34 days. CD8(+) T-cells response was evaluated by immunophenotyping, intracellular staining, ELISpot assay and in vivo cytotoxicity. In comparison with vehicle-injection, rapamycin administration during immunization enhanced the frequency of ASP2-specific CD8(+) T-cells and the percentage of the polyfunctional population, which degranulated (CD107a(+)) and secreted both interferon gamma (IFNgamma) and tumor necrosis factor (TNF). The beneficial effects were long-lasting and could be detected 95 days after priming. Moreover, the effects were detected in mice immunized with ten-fold lower doses of plasmid/adenovirus. Additionally, the highly susceptible to T. cruzi infection A/Sn mice, when immunized with low vaccine doses, treated with rapamycin, and challenged with trypomastigote forms of the Y strain showed a survival rate of 100%, compared with 42% in vehicle-injected group. Trying to shed light on the biological mechanisms involved in these beneficial effects on CD8(+) T-cells by mTOR inhibition after immunization, we showed that in vivo proliferation was higher after rapamycin treatment compared with vehicle-injected group. Taken together, our data provide a new approach to vaccine development against intracellular parasites, placing the mTOR inhibitor rapamycin as an adjuvant to improve effective CD8(+) T-cell response

Zika Virus Epidemic in Brazil. II. Post-Mortem Analyses of Neonates with Microcephaly, Stillbirths, and Miscarriage

Introduction: The recent Zika virus(ZIKV) epidemic in Brazil was characterized by a range of different clinical presentations, particularly microcephaly, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and death. In this context, we determined the causal relationship between fatal microcephaly cases and ZIKV infection. Methods: Twelve fatal cases of neonates, whose mothers were infected with ZIKV during pregnancy, were examined; cases included nine neonatal deaths due to microcephaly, one miscarriage, and two stillbirths. Tissue samples were obtained from all cases at necropsy and were submitted for virological investigation (RT-qPCR and virus isolation) and/or histopathology (hematoxylin and eosin staining) and immunohistochemical assay for the detection of ZIKV antigens. Results: ZIKV antigens and/or ZIKV RNA were detected in tissue samples of all 12 cases examined. ZIKV was recovered in one case. Results of the virological and immunohistochemical analyses, as well as the anatomic abnormalities and histopathologic changes observed at necropsy on the 12 fatal cases, are presented. Conclusions: Data from these 12 cases provide strong evidence of the causal relationship between ZIKV and congenital disease in fetuses of women who were infected with the virus during pregnancy

Zika virus epidemic in Brazil. I. Fatal disease in adults: Clinical and laboratorial aspects

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) was first detected in Brazil in May 2015 and the country experienced an explosive epidemic. However, recent studies indicate that the introduction of ZIKV occurred in late 2013. Cases of microcephaly and deaths associated with ZIKV infection were identified in Brazil in November, 2015. OBJECTIVES: To determine the etiology of three fatal adult cases. STUDY DESIGN: Here we report three fatal adult cases of ZIKV disease. ZIKV infection in these patients was confirmed by cells culture and/or real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) and by antigen detection using immunohistochemical assay. Samples of brain and other selected organs taken at autopsy from three patients were also analyzed by histopathological and immunohistological examination. RESULTS: The first patient, a 36-year-old man with lupus and receiving prednisone therapy, developed a fulminant ZIKV infection. At autopsy, RT-qPCR of blood and tissues was positive for ZIKV RNA, and the virus was cultured from an organ homogenate. The second patient, a previously healthy female, 16 years of age, presented classic symptoms of Zika fever, but later developed severe thrombocytopenia, anemia and hemorrhagic manifestations and died. A blood sample taken on the seventh day of her illness was positive RT-PCR for ZIKV RNA and research in the serum was positive for antinuclear factor fine speckled (1/640), suggesting Evans syndrome (hemolytic anemia an autoimmune disorder with immune thrombocytopenic purpura) secondary to ZIKV infection. The third patient was a 20-year-old woman hospitalized with fever, pneumonia and hemorrhages, who died on 13 days after admission. Histopathological changes were observed in all viscera examined. ZIKV antigens were detected by immunohistochemistry in viscera specimens of patients 1 and 3. These three cases demonstrate other potential complications of ZIKV infection, in addition to microcephaly and Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS), and they suggest that individuals with immune suppression and/or autoimmune disorders may be at higher risk of developing severe disease, if infected with ZIKV

Zika no Brasil. I. Doença fatal em adultos: aspectos clínicos e laboratoriais

This study was partially supported by the Ministry of Health through the Evandro Chagas Institute official budget and by CNPq (PFCVby grants573739/2008-0,301641/2010-2and457664/2013- 4), CAPES Zika Fast-track, the CNPq Zika fund, and FINEP Zika and other aarboviruses fund; RBT is supported by the grant R24 AT 120992 from National Institute of Health.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Virologia. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil / Universidade do Estado do Pará. Departamento de Patologia. Belém, PA, Brazil.Universidade Federal do Maranhão. São Luiz, MA, BrazilUniversidade Federal do Pará. Hospital Universitário João de Barros Barreto. Belém, PA, Brazil.Universidade Federal do Pará. Hospital Universitário João de Barros Barreto. Belém, PA, Brazil.Universidade Federal do Pará. Hospital Universitário João de Barros Barreto. Belém, PA, Brazil.Universidade do Estado do Pará. Departamento de Patologia. Belém, PA, Brazil.Universidade do Estado do Pará. Departamento de Patologia. Belém, PA, Brazil.Secretaria de Saúde Pública do Rio Grande do Norte. Laboratório Central. Natal, RN, Brazil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Virologia. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.University of Texas Medical Branch. Department of Pathology. Galveston, TX, USA.University of Texas Medical Branch. Department of Pathology. Galveston, TX, USA.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil / Universidade do Estado do Pará. Departamento de Patologia. Belém, PA, Brazil.Background: Zika virus (ZIKV) was first detected in Brazil in May 2015 and the country experienced an explosive epidemic. However, recent studies indicate that the introduction of ZIKV occurred in late 2013. Cases of microcephaly and deaths associated with ZIKV infection were identified in Brazil in November, 2015. Objectives: To determine the etiology of three fatal adult cases. Study design: Here we report three fatal adult cases of ZIKV disease. ZIKV infection in these patients was confirmed by cells culture and/or real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) and by antigen detection using immunohistochemical assay. Samples of brain and other selected organs taken at autopsy from three patients were also analyzed by histopathological and immunohistological examination. Results: The first patient, a 36-year-old man with lupus and receiving prednisone therapy, developed a fulminant ZIKV infection. At autopsy, RT-qPCR of blood and tissues was positive for ZIKV RNA, and the virus was cultured from an organ homogenate. The second patient, a previously healthy female, 16 years of age, presented classic symptoms of Zika fever, but later developed severe thrombocytopenia, anemia and hemorrhagic manifestations and died. A blood sample taken on the seventh day of her illness was positive RT-PCR for ZIKV RNA and research in the serumwas positive for antinuclear factorfine speckled (1/640), suggesting Evans syndrome (hemolytic anemia an autoimmune disorder with immune thrombocytopenic purpura) secondary to ZIKV infection. The third patient was a 20-year-old woman hospitalized with fever, pneumonia and hemorrhages, who died on 13 days after admission. Histopathological changes were observed in all viscera examined. ZIKV antigens were detected by immunohistochemistry in viscera specimens of patients 1 and 3. These three cases demonstrate other potential complications of ZIKV infection, in addition to microcephaly and Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS), and they suggest that individuals with immune suppression and/or autoimmune disorders may be at higher risk of developing severe disease, if infected with ZIKV