On the reduced sensitivity of the Atlantic overturning to Greenland ice sheet melting in projections: a multi-model assessment

Large uncertainties exist concerning the impact of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the future, partly due to different sensitivity of the AMOC to freshwater input in the North Atlantic among climate models. Here we analyse five projections from different coupled ocean–atmosphere models with an additional 0.1 Sv (1 Sv = 10 6 m3/s) of freshwater released around Greenland between 2050 and 2089. We find on average a further weakening of the AMOC at 26°N of 1.1 ± 0.6 Sv representing a 27 ± 14% supplementary weakening in 2080–2089, as compared to the weakening relative to 2006–2015 due to the effect of the external forcing only. This weakening is lower than what has been found with the same ensemble of models in an identical experimen - tal set-up but under recent historical climate conditions. This lower sensitivity in a warmer world is explained by two main factors. First, a tendency of decoupling is detected between the surface and the deep ocean caused by an increased thermal stratification in the North Atlantic under the effect of global warming. This induces a shoaling of ocean deep ventilation through convection hence ventilating only intermediate levels. The second important effect concerns the so-called Canary Current freshwater leakage; a process by which additionally released fresh water in the North Atlantic leaks along the Canary Current and escapes the convection zones towards the subtropical area. This leakage is increasing in a warming climate, which is a consequence of decreasing gyres asymmetry due to changes in Ekman rumping. We suggest that these modifications are related with the northward shift of the jet stream in a warmer world. For these two reasons the AMOC is less susceptible to freshwater perturbations (near the deep water formation sides) in the North Atlantic as compared to the recent historical climate conditions. Finally, we propose a bilinear model that accounts for the two former processes to give a conceptual explanation about the decreasing AMOC sensitivity due to freshwater input. Within the limit of this bilinear model, we find that 62 ± 8% of the reduction in sensitivity is related with the changes in gyre asymmetry and freshwater leakage and 38 ± 8% is due to the reduction in deep ocean ventilation associated with the increased stratification in the North Atlantic

Indices associated with climate variability

Evaluation of the most critical observations and analysis of AMOC related changes in heat-, freshwater- and carbon budgets and subsurface temperature in the subpolar North Atlantic and the subtropical South Atlanti

The effectiveness of neuromuscular warm-up strategies, that require no additional equipment, for preventing lower limb injuries during sports participation: a systematic review

PMCID: PMC3408383The electronic version of this article is the complete one and can be found online at: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/10/75. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

The Slowing Gulf Stream? What we know and potential impacts (Policy Brief)

Blue-Action aims to improve our ability to describe, model, and predict Arctic climate change and its impact on Northern Hemisphere climate, weather, and their extremes, and to deliver valuated climate services of societal benefit. Blue-Action contributes to the implementation of the Trans-Atlantic Ocean Research Alliance, to the EU’s Blue Growth Agenda, and to a long-term strategy to support sustainable growth in the marine and maritime sectors as a whole. Blue-Action supports the implementation of the Galway and the Belem Statements and the achievement of UN SDG 8, 9, 13

Vulnerability of the North Water ecosystem to climate change

High Arctic ecosystems and Indigenous livelihoods are tightly linked and exposed to climate change, yet assessing their sensitivity requires a long-term perspective. Here, we assess the vulnerability of the North Water polynya, a unique seaice ecosystem that sustains the world’s northernmost Inuit communities and several keystone Arctic species. We reconstruct mid-to-late Holocene changes in sea ice, marine primary production, and little auk colony dynamics through multi-proxy analysis of marine and lake sediment cores. Our results suggest a productive ecosystem by 4400–4200 cal yrs b2k coincident with the arrival of the first humans in Greenland. Climate forcing during the late Holocene, leading to periods of polynya instability and marine productivity decline, is strikingly coeval with the human abandonment of Greenland from c. 2200–1200 cal yrs b2k. Our long-term perspective highlights the future decline of the North Water ecosystem, due to climate warming and changing sea-ice conditions, as an important climate change risk

Tracing the cosmic growth of supermassive black holes to z~3 with Herschel

We study a sample of Herschel selected galaxies within the Great Observatories Origins Deep Survey-South and the Cosmic Evolution Survey fields in the framework of the Photodetector Array Camera and Spectrometer (PACS) Evolutionary Probe project. Starting from the rich multiwavelength photometric data sets available in both fields, we perform a broad-band spectral energy distribution decomposition to disentangle the possible active galactic nucleus (AGN) contribution from that related to the host galaxy. We find that 37 per cent of the Herschel-selected sample shows signatures of nuclear activity at the 99 per cent confidence level. The probability of revealing AGN activity increases for bright (L 1−1000 > 10 11 L ? ) star-forming galaxies at z > 0.3, becoming about 80 per cent for the brightest (L 1−1000 > 10 12 L ? ) Infrared (IR) galaxies at z≥1. Finally, we reconstruct the AGN bolometric luminosity function and the supermassive black hole growth rate across cosmic time up to z ∼ 3 from a far-IR perspective. This work shows general agreement with most of the panchromatic estimates from the literature, with the global black hole growth peaking at z ∼ 2 and reproducing the observed local black hole mass density with consistent values of the radiative efficiency Erad (∼0.07)

HOXB4 Gene Expression Is Regulated by CDX2 in Intestinal Epithelial Cells

The mammalian Caudal-related homeobox transcription factor 2 (CDX2) plays a key role in the homeobox regulatory network and is essential in regulating the expression of several homeobox (HOX) genes during embryonic development, particularly in the gut. Genome-wide CDX2 chromatin immunoprecipitation analysis and expression data from Caco2 cells also suggests a role for CDX2 in the regulation of HOXB4 gene expression in the intestinal epithelium. Thus, the aim of this study was to investigate whether HOXB4 gene expression is regulated by CDX2 in the intestinal epithelium. We demonstrated binding of CDX2 to four different CDX2 binding sites in an enhancer region located upstream of the HOXB4 transcription start site. Mutations in the CDX2 binding sites reduced HOXB4 gene activity, and knock down of endogenous CDX2 expression by shRNA reduced HOXB4 gene expression. This is the first report demonstrating the CDX2 regulation of HOXB4 gene expression in the developed intestinal epithelium, indicating a possible role for HOXB4 in intestinal homeostasis

Solar System Abundances of the Elements

Representative abundances of the chemical elements for use as a solar abundance standard in astronomical and planetary studies are summarized. Updated abundance tables for solar system abundances based on meteorites and photospheric measurements are presented.Comment: 46 pages; 5 figures; 8 tables; In: Principles and Perspectives in Cosmochemistry.Lecture Notes of the Kodai School on 'Synthesis of Elements in Stars' held at Kodaikanal Observatory, India, April 29 - May 13, 2008 (Aruna Goswami and B. Eswar Reddy eds.) Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2010, p. 379-417 (ISBN 978-3-642-10351-3), 201