Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma with Choice and Refusal of Partners

This article extends the traditional iterated prisoner's dilemma (IPD) with round-robin partner matching by permitting players to choose and refuse partners in each iteration on the basis of continually updated expected payoffs. Comparative computer experiments are reported that indicate the introduction of partner choice and refusal accelerates the emergence of mutual cooperation in the IPD relative to round-robin partner matching. Moreover, in contrast to findings for round-robin partner matching (in which the average payoffs of the players tend to be either clustered around the mutual cooperation payoff or widely scattered), the average payoff scores of the players with choice and refusal of partners tend to cluster into two or more distinct narrow bands. Preliminary analytical and computational sensitivity studies are also reported for several key parameters. Related work can be accessed here: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/tnghome.htmiterated prisoner's dilemma; preferential partner selection; evolutionary game theory

Detection of Dust Storms Using MODIS Reflective and Emissive Bands

YesDust storms are one of the natural phenomena, which have increased in frequency in recent years in North Africa, Australia and northern China. Satellite remote sensing is the common method for monitoring dust storms but its use for identifying dust storms over sandy ground is still limited as the two share similar characteristics. In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) is used to detect dust storm using 46 sets of data acquired between 2001 and 2010 over North Africa by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. The ANN uses image data generated from Brightness Temperature Difference (BTD) between bands 23 and 31 and BTD between bands 31 and 32 with three bands 1, 3, and 4, to classify individual pixels on the basis of their multiple-band values. In comparison with the manually detection of dust storms, the ANN approach gave better result than the Thermal Infrared Integrated Dust Index approach for dust storms detection over the Sahara. The trained ANN using data from the Sahara desert gave an accuracy of 0.88 when tested on data from the Gobi desert and managed to detect 90 out of the 96 dust storm events captured worldwide by Terra and Aqua satellites in 2011 that were classified as dusty images on NASA Earth Observatory.IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Societ

Uniform random generation of large acyclic digraphs

Directed acyclic graphs are the basic representation of the structure underlying Bayesian networks, which represent multivariate probability distributions. In many practical applications, such as the reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks, not only the estimation of model parameters but the reconstruction of the structure itself is of great interest. As well as for the assessment of different structure learning algorithms in simulation studies, a uniform sample from the space of directed acyclic graphs is required to evaluate the prevalence of certain structural features. Here we analyse how to sample acyclic digraphs uniformly at random through recursive enumeration, an approach previously thought too computationally involved. Based on complexity considerations, we discuss in particular how the enumeration directly provides an exact method, which avoids the convergence issues of the alternative Markov chain methods and is actually computationally much faster. The limiting behaviour of the distribution of acyclic digraphs then allows us to sample arbitrarily large graphs. Building on the ideas of recursive enumeration based sampling we also introduce a novel hybrid Markov chain with much faster convergence than current alternatives while still being easy to adapt to various restrictions. Finally we discuss how to include such restrictions in the combinatorial enumeration and the new hybrid Markov chain method for efficient uniform sampling of the corresponding graphs.Comment: 15 pages, 2 figures. To appear in Statistics and Computin

Stochastic Model for Surface Erosion Via Ion-Sputtering: Dynamical Evolution from Ripple Morphology to Rough Morphology

Surfaces eroded by ion-sputtering are sometimes observed to develop morphologies which are either ripple (periodic), or rough (non-periodic). We introduce a discrete stochastic model that allows us to interpret these experimental observations within a unified framework. We find that a periodic ripple morphology characterizes the initial stages of the evolution, whereas the surface displays self-affine scaling in the later time regime. Further, we argue that the stochastic continuum equation describing the surface height is a noisy version of the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation.Comment: 4 pages, 7 postscript figs., Revtex, to appear in Phys. Rev. Let

Hopf algebras and Markov chains: Two examples and a theory

The operation of squaring (coproduct followed by product) in a combinatorial Hopf algebra is shown to induce a Markov chain in natural bases. Chains constructed in this way include widely studied methods of card shuffling, a natural "rock-breaking" process, and Markov chains on simplicial complexes. Many of these chains can be explictly diagonalized using the primitive elements of the algebra and the combinatorics of the free Lie algebra. For card shuffling, this gives an explicit description of the eigenvectors. For rock-breaking, an explicit description of the quasi-stationary distribution and sharp rates to absorption follow.Comment: 51 pages, 17 figures. (Typographical errors corrected. Further fixes will only appear on the version on Amy Pang's website, the arXiv version will not be updated.

Representational predicaments for employees: Their impact on perceptions of supervisors\u27 individualized consideration and on employee job satisfaction

A representational predicament for a subordinate vis-à-vis his or her immediate superior involves perceptual incongruence with the superior about the subordinate\u27s work or work context, with unfavourable implications for the employee. An instrument to measure the incidence of two types of representational predicament, being neglected and negative slanting, was developed and then validated through an initial survey of 327 employees. A subsequent substantive survey with a fresh sample of 330 employees largely supported a conceptual model linking being neglected and negative slanting to perceptions of low individualized consideration by superiors and to low overall job satisfaction. The respondents in both surveys were all Hong Kong Chinese. Two case examples drawn from qualitative interviews illustrate and support the conceptual model. Based on the research findings, we recommend some practical exercises to use in training interventions with leaders and subordinates. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC

Age at first birth in women is genetically associated with increased risk of schizophrenia

Prof. Paunio on PGC:n jäsenPrevious studies have shown an increased risk for mental health problems in children born to both younger and older parents compared to children of average-aged parents. We previously used a novel design to reveal a latent mechanism of genetic association between schizophrenia and age at first birth in women (AFB). Here, we use independent data from the UK Biobank (N = 38,892) to replicate the finding of an association between predicted genetic risk of schizophrenia and AFB in women, and to estimate the genetic correlation between schizophrenia and AFB in women stratified into younger and older groups. We find evidence for an association between predicted genetic risk of schizophrenia and AFB in women (P-value = 1.12E-05), and we show genetic heterogeneity between younger and older AFB groups (P-value = 3.45E-03). The genetic correlation between schizophrenia and AFB in the younger AFB group is -0.16 (SE = 0.04) while that between schizophrenia and AFB in the older AFB group is 0.14 (SE = 0.08). Our results suggest that early, and perhaps also late, age at first birth in women is associated with increased genetic risk for schizophrenia in the UK Biobank sample. These findings contribute new insights into factors contributing to the complex bio-social risk architecture underpinning the association between parental age and offspring mental health.Peer reviewe

Geographical and temporal distribution of SARS-CoV-2 clades in the WHO European Region, January to June 2020

We show the distribution of SARS-CoV-2 genetic clades over time and between countries and outline potential genomic surveillance objectives. We applied three available genomic nomenclature systems for SARS-CoV-2 to all sequence data from the WHO European Region available during the COVID-19 pandemic until 10 July 2020. We highlight the importance of real-time sequencing and data dissemination in a pandemic situation. We provide a comparison of the nomenclatures and lay a foundation for future European genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2.Peer reviewe