A machine learning-based framework for forecasting sales of new products with short life cycles using deep neural networks

Demand forecasting is becoming increasingly important as firms launch new products with short life cycles more frequently. This paper provides a framework based on state-of-the-art techniques that enables firms to use quantitative methods to forecast sales of newly launched, short-lived products that are similar to previous products when there is limited availability of historical sales data for the new product. In addition to exploiting historical data using time-series clustering, we perform data augmentation to generate sufficient sales data and consider two quantitative cluster assignment methods. We apply one traditional statistical (ARIMAX) and three machine learning methods based on deep neural networks (DNNs) – long short-term memory, gated recurrent units, and convolutional neural networks. Using two large data sets, we investigate the forecasting methods’ comparative performance and, for the larger data set, show that clustering generally results in substantially lower forecast errors. Our key empirical finding is that simple ARIMAX considerably outperforms the more advanced DNNs, with mean absolute errors up to 21%–24% lower. However, when adding Gaussian white noise in our robustness analysis, we find that ARIMAX's performance deteriorates dramatically, whereas the considered DNNs display robust performance. Our results provide insights for practitioners on when to use advanced deep learning methods and when to use traditional methods

Diversity in Acinetobacter baumannii isolates from paediatric cancer patients in Egypt

Acinetobacter baumannii is an important nosocomial pathogen, commonly causing infections in immunocompromised patients. It is increasingly reported as a multidrug-resistant organism, which is alarming because of its capability to resist all available classes of antibiotics including carbapenems. The aim of this study was to examine the genetic and epidemiological diversity of A. baumannii isolates from paediatric cancer patients in Egypt, by sequencing the intrinsic blaOXA -51-like gene, genotyping by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and multi-locus sequence typing in addition to identifying the carbapenem-resistance mechanism. Results showed a large diversity within the isolates, with eight different blaOXA -51-like genes, seven novel sequence types and only 28% similarity by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. All three acquired class-D carbapenemases (OXA-23, OXA-40 and OXA-58) were also identified among these strains correlating with resistance to carbapenems. In addition, we report the first identification of ISAba2 upstream of blaOXA -51-like contributing to high-level carbapenem resistance. This indicates the presence of several clones of A. baumannii in the hospitals and illustrates the large genetic and epidemiological diversity found in Egyptian strains

Snapshot Profiling of the Antileishmanial Potency of Lead Compounds and Drug Candidates against Intracellular <i>Leishmania donovani</i> Amastigotes, with a Focus on Human-Derived Host Cells

This study characterised in vitro potencies of anti-leishmanial agents against intracellular Leishmania donovani amastigotes in primary human macrophages, obtained with or without CD14-positive monocyte enrichment, phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) differentiated THP-1 cells and mouse peritoneal exudate macrophages (PEMs). Host cell dependent potency was confirmed for pentavalent and trivalent antimony. Fexinidazole was inactive against intracellular amastigotes across the host cell panel. Fexinidazole sulfone, (R)-PA-824, (S)-PA-824 and VL-2098 displayed similar potency in all host cells tested

Doing good to do well? Corporate social responsibility reasons, practices and impacts in small and medium accommodation enterprises

Corporate social responsibility practices have been mostly analyzed in the large manufacturing business context, with little attention paid to the service sector and even less to small and medium-sized accommodation enterprises. This study aims to fill this gap through analyzing how these enterprises take responsibility. A survey of nearly 400 enterprises showed that the main reason for acting responsibly is altruistic, although competitiveness reasons are also important. Aspects of the " resource-based view" of the firm are validated through the positive impact of environmental cost-savings in financial performance, but also because other practices (not always related with economic reasons) are influencing their competitiveness. The article concludes that further implementation of these practices is necessary to achieve the full potential of competitive advantages. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd

Acinic cell carcinoma in pregnancy: a case report and review of the literature

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>We report an observational study on the etiology and recurrence of acinic cell carcinoma of the parotid gland that seemed to be related to pregnancy. The medical literature has never reported such an association; therefore, our case report is probably the first to mention this observation.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>This report is of a 25-year-old Arabic female patient from the United Arab Emirates, who, during her first pregnancy, developed acinic cell carcinoma of the right parotid gland that was managed with surgical excision in the form of superficial parotidectomy. During her second pregnancy, which occurred four years later, she had a recurrence of the same malignant neoplasm associated with ipsilateral malignant cervical lymphadenopathy. The patient was managed with total parotidectomy and neck dissection, as well as postoperative adjuvant radiotherapy. Our observation on this particular case of acinic cell carcinoma is that the initial onset of her neoplasm was during her first pregnancy, and the recurrence of the same malignant disease was during a subsequent pregnancy. This chronologic association raised our suspicion that there might be a possible etiologic effect of pregnancy or its associated hormonal or physiologic changes or both on the pathogenesis or etiology of acinic cell carcinoma.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Some association might exist between pregnancy and the pathogenesis or etiology of acinic cell carcinoma.</p

Coordination in climbing: effect of skill, practice and constraints manipulation

BACKGROUND: Climbing is a physical activity and sport involving many subdisciplines. Minimization of prolonged pauses, use of a relatively simple path through a route and smooth transitions between movements broadly define skilled coordination in climbing. OBJECTIVES: To provide an overview of the constraints on skilled coordination in climbing and to explore future directions in this emerging field. METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted in 2014 and retrieved studies reporting perceptual and movement data during climbing tasks. To be eligible for the qualitative synthesis, studies were required to report perceptual or movement data during climbing tasks graded for difficulty. RESULTS: Qualitative synthesis of 42 studies was carried out, showing that skilled coordination in climbing is underpinned by superior perception of climbing opportunities; optimization of spatial-temporal features pertaining to body-to-wall coordination, the climb trajectory and hand-to-hold surface contact; and minimization of exploratory behaviour. Improvements in skilled coordination due to practice are related to task novelty and the difficulty of the climbing route relative to the individual's ability level. CONCLUSION: Perceptual and motor adaptations that improve skilled coordination are highly significant for improving the climbing ability level. Elite climbers exhibit advantages in detection and use of climbing opportunities when visually inspecting a route from the ground and when physically moving though a route. However, the need to provide clear guidelines on how to improve climbing skill arises from uncertainties regarding the impacts of different practice interventions on learning and transfer

Equivalent parameters for series thermoelectrics

We study the physical processes at work at the interface of two thermoelectric generators (TEGs) thermally and electrically connected in series. We show and explain how these processes impact on the system's performance: the derivation of the equivalent electrical series resistance yields a term whose physical meaning is thoroughly discussed. We demonstrate that this term must exist as a consequence of thermal continuity at the interface, since it is related to the variation of the junction temperature between the two TEGs associated in series as the electrical current varies. We then derive an expression for the equivalent series figure of merit. Finally we highlight the strong thermal/electrical symmetry between the parallel and series configurations and we compare our derivation with recent published results for the parallel configuration

Extragonadal Effects of Follicle-Stimulating Hormone on Osteoporosis and Cardiovascular Disease in Women during Menopausal Transition

The risk of osteoporosis and cardiovascular disease increases significantly in postmenopausal women. Until recently, the underlying mechanisms have been primarily attributed to estrogen decline following menopause. However, follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) levels rise sharply during menopausal transition and are maintained at elevated levels for many years. FSH receptor has been detected in various extragonadal sites, including osteoclasts and endothelial cells. Recent advances suggest FSH may contribute to postmenopausal osteoporosis and cardiovascular disease. Here, we review the key actions through which FSH contributes to the risk of osteoporosis and cardiovascular disease in women as they transition through menopause. Advancing our understanding of the precise mechanisms through which FSH promotes osteoporosis and cardiovascular disease may provide new opportunities for improving health-span for postmenopausal women

Adhesion of membranes via receptor-ligand complexes: Domain formation, binding cooperativity, and active processes

Cell membranes interact via anchored receptor and ligand molecules. Central questions on cell adhesion concern the binding affinity of these membrane-anchored molecules, the mechanisms leading to the receptor-ligand domains observed during adhesion, and the role of cytoskeletal and other active processes. In this review, these questions are addressed from a theoretical perspective. We focus on models in which the membranes are described as elastic sheets, and the receptors and ligands as anchored molecules. In these models, the thermal membrane roughness on the nanometer scale leads to a cooperative binding of anchored receptor and ligand molecules, since the receptor-ligand binding smoothens out the membranes and facilitates the formation of additional bonds. Patterns of receptor domains observed in Monte Carlo simulations point towards a joint role of spontaneous and active processes in cell adhesion. The interactions mediated by the receptors and ligand molecules can be characterized by effective membrane adhesion potentials that depend on the concentrations and binding energies of the molecules.Comment: Review article, 13 pages, 9 figures, to appear in Soft Matte

Incorporation of calcium in glasses: a key to understand the vitrification of sewage sludge

The quantity of sewage sludge generated daily by wastewater treatment plants represents a major environmental problem and a financial burden for plant operators. Valorization strategies focusing on reusing sewage sludge as a raw material are currently developed. Vitrification can help us reduce the volume of waste and binds the components in the structure of chemically stable glasses and glass‐ceramics. In this study, the vitrification of sewage sludge inside a basaltic rock has been simulated by producing glasses and a glass‐ceramic from basalt enriched in calcium that lie between the stability fields of pyroxene and melilite in the system CaO‐MgO‐SiO2‐Al2O3. CaO addition causes the oxidation of the melt at above the liquidus, increases the crystallization temperature, decreases the melting temperature and improves the microhardness of the glasses Glass‐ceramic processes improves the properties of the Ca‐doped basalt glass. The microhardness of the glass (8.2 GPa) and the glass‐ceramic (8.6 GPa) and leaching tests (in the ppb range) place both the glass and the glass‐ceramics at the high end of the mechanical properties and chemical resistance of ceramic tiles for the building industry