Investigating in-service failures of water pipes from a multiaxial notch fatigue point of view: A conceptual study

Many mechanisms and processes can cause deterioration and ultimately failure of water distribution pipes during in-service operation, amongst these is damage caused by metal fatigue. This paper summarises an attempt at formalising a novel methodology suitable for estimating the number of years taken for a through thickness fatigue crack to form in this complex scenario. The devised method is based on the so-called modified Wo¨hler curve method and can be applied to estimate fatigue damage of water pipes independently from the degree of multiaxiality and non-proportionality of the load history. The computational approach of the proposed fatigue life estimation technique makes full use of an incremental procedure: fatigue damage is evaluated year by year by assuming that all variable involved in the process can change over time. The detrimental effect of corrosion pits is directly accounted for by treating them as conventional notches whose size increases with time. Finally, by taking as reference information the number of years for a blowout hole to form, the proposed approach is used to show how the lifetime of grey cast iron pipes can be remarkably shortened by fatigue

Clinical, ultrasound and molecular biomarkers for early prediction of large for gestational age infants in nulliparous women: an international prospective cohort study

Objective: To develop a prediction model for term infants born large for gestational age (LGA) by customised birthweight centiles. Methods: International prospective cohort of nulliparous women with singleton pregnancy recruited to the Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints (SCOPE) study. LGA was defined as birthweight above the 90th customised centile, including adjustment for parity, ethnicity, maternal height and weight, fetal gender and gestational age. Clinical risk factors, ultrasound parameters and biomarkers at 14–16 or 19–21 weeks were combined into a prediction model for LGA infants at term using stepwise logistic regression in a training dataset. Prediction performance was assessed in a validation dataset using area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve (AUC) and detection rate at fixed false positive rates. Results: The prevalence of LGA at term was 8.8% (n = 491/5628). Clinical and ultrasound factors selected in the prediction model for LGA infants were maternal birthweight, gestational weight gain between 14–16 and 19–21 weeks, and fetal abdominal circumference, head circumference and uterine artery Doppler resistance index at 19–21 weeks (AUC 0.67; 95%CI 0.63–0.71). Sensitivity of this model was 24% and 49% for a fixed false positive rate of 10% and 25%, respectively. The addition of biomarkers resulted in selection of random glucose, LDL-cholesterol, vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1 (VEGFR1) and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), but with minimal improvement in model performance (AUC 0.69; 95%CI 0.65–0.73). Sensitivity of the full model was 26% and 50% for a fixed false positive rate of 10% and 25%, respectively. Conclusion: Prediction of LGA infants at term has limited diagnostic performance before 22 weeks but may have a role in contingency screening in later pregnancy

The anti-vaccination movement and resistance to allergen-immunotherapy: a guide for clinical allergists

Despite over a century of clinical use and a well-documented record of efficacy and safety, a growing minority in society questions the validity of vaccination and fear that this common public health intervention is the root-cause of severe health problems. This article questions whether growing public anti-vaccine sentiments might have the potential to spill-over into other therapies distinct from vaccination, namely allergen-immunotherapy. Allergen-immunotherapy shares certain medical vernacular with vaccination (e.g., allergy shots, allergy vaccines), and thus may become "guilty by association" due to these similarities. Indeed, this article demonstrates that anti-vaccine websites have begun unduly discrediting this allergy treatment regimen. Following an explanation of the anti-vaccine movement, the article aims to provide guidance on how clinicians can respond to patient fears towards allergen-immunotherapy in the clinical setting. This guide focuses on the provision of reliable information to patients in order to dispel misconceived associations between vaccination and allergen-immunotherapy, and the discussion of the risks and benefits of both therapies in order to assist patients in making autonomous decisions about their choice of allergy treatment

Geographic variation in breeding system and environment predicts melanin-based plumage ornamentation of male and female Kentish plovers

Sexual selection determines the elaboration of morphological and behavioural traits and thus drives the evolution of phenotypes. Sexual selection on males and females can differ between populations, especially when populations exhibit different breeding systems. A substantial body of literature describes how breeding systems shape ornamentation across species, with a strong emphasis on male ornamentation and female preference. However, whether breeding system predicts ornamentation within species and whether similar mechanisms as in males also shape the phenotype of females remains unclear. Here, we investigate how different breeding systems are associated with male and female ornamentation in five geographically distinct populations of Kentish plovers Charadrius alexandrinus. We predicted that polygamous populations would exhibit more elaborate ornaments and stronger sexual dimorphism than monogamous populations. By estimating the size and intensity of male (n = 162) and female (n = 174) melanin-based plumage ornaments, i.e. breast bands and ear coverts, we show that plumage ornamentation is predicted by breeding system in both sexes. A difference in especially male ornamentation between polygamous (darker and smaller ornaments) and monogamous (lighter and larger) populations causes the greatest sexual dimorphism to be associated with polygamy. The non-social environment, however, may also influence the degree of ornamentation, for instance through availability of food. We found that, in addition to breeding system, a key environmental parameter, rainfall, predicted a seasonal change of ornamentation in a sex-specific manner. Our results emphasise that to understand the phenotype of animals, it is important to consider both natural and sexual selection acting on both males and females

‘Even though it might take me a while, in the end, I understand it’: a longitudinal case study of interactions between a conceptual change strategy and student motivation, interest and confidence

Although there have been many investigations of the social, motivational, and emotional aspects of conceptual change, there have been few studies investigating the intersection of these factors with cognitive aspects in the regular classroom. Using a conceptual change approach, this case study reports experiences of a student of low to average prior attainment who achieved high levels of conceptual gains in five science topics over a two-year period. Her experience in the cognitive, social and affective domains was probed through analysis of interviews, student artefacts, video recordings of classroom learning, pre/post-tests and questionnaire results. For this student, peripheral or incidental persuasion of belonging to a supportive small group initially led to greater engagement with the construction of understanding through production of multiple student-generated representations, resulting in improved self-confidence and high levels of conceptual change. Evidence of transfer from performance to mastery approach goals, adoption of positive activating emotions and increased interest in science were observed. This study highlights that adoption of a multidimensional conceptual change approach with judicious organisation of small groups to support construction of verbal, pictorial and written representations of understanding may bring about changes in motivational stance, self-confidence and emotions to maximise conceptual change

Supplement: "Localization and broadband follow-up of the gravitational-wave transient GW150914" (2016, ApJL, 826, L13)

This Supplement provides supporting material for Abbott et al. (2016a). We briefly summarize past electromagnetic (EM) follow-up efforts as well as the organization and policy of the current EM follow-up program. We compare the four probability sky maps produced for the gravitational-wave transient GW150914, and provide additional details of the EM follow-up observations that were performed in the different bands

Localization and broadband follow-up of the gravitational-wave transient GW150914

A gravitational-wave (GW) transient was identified in data recorded by the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) detectors on 2015 September 14. The event, initially designated G184098 and later given the name GW150914, is described in detail elsewhere. By prior arrangement, preliminary estimates of the time, significance, and sky location of the event were shared with 63 teams of observers covering radio, optical, near-infrared, X-ray, and gamma-ray wavelengths with ground- and space-based facilities. In this Letter we describe the low-latency analysis of the GW data and present the sky localization of the first observed compact binary merger. We summarize the follow-up observations reported by 25 teams via private Gamma-ray Coordinates Network circulars, giving an overview of the participating facilities, the GW sky localization coverage, the timeline, and depth of the observations. As this event turned out to be a binary black hole merger, there is little expectation of a detectable electromagnetic (EM) signature. Nevertheless, this first broadband campaign to search for a counterpart of an Advanced LIGO source represents a milestone and highlights the broad capabilities of the transient astronomy community and the observing strategies that have been developed to pursue neutron star binary merger events. Detailed investigations of the EM data and results of the EM follow-up campaign are being disseminated in papers by the individual teams