Patients with Endoscopically Visible Polypoid Adenomatous Lesions Within the Extent of Ulcerative Colitis Have an Increased Risk of Colorectal Cancer Despite Endoscopic Resection.

OBJECTIVES: Ulcerative colitis (UC) is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Few studies have looked at long-term outcomes of endoscopically visible adenomatous lesions removed by endoscopic resection in these patients. We aimed to assess the risk of developing CRC in UC patients with adenomatous lesions that develop within the segment of colitis compared to the remainder of an ulcerative colitis cohort. METHODS: We identified patients with a confirmed histological diagnosis of UC from 1991 to 2004 and noted outcomes till June 2011. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate cumulative probability of subsequent CRC. Factors associated with risk of CRC were assessed in a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Twenty-nine of 301 patients with UC had adenomatous lesions noted within the segment of colitis. The crude incidence rate of developing colon cancer in patients with UC was 2.45 (95 % CI 1.06-4.83) per 1000 PYD and in those with UC and polypoid adenomas within the extent of inflammation was 11.07 (95 % CI 3.59-25.83) per 1000 PYD. Adjusted hazards ratio of developing CRC on follow-up in UC patients with polypoid dysplastic adenomatous lesions within the extent of inflammation was 4.0 (95 % CI 1.3-12.4). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of developing CRC is significantly higher in UC patients with polypoid adenomatous lesions, within the extent of inflammation, despite endoscopic resection. Patients and physicians should take the increased risk into consideration during follow-up of these patients

Exome sequencing and genotyping identify a rare variant in NLRP7 gene associated with ulcerative colitis.

Background and Aims Although genome-wide association studies [GWAS] in inflammatory bowel disease [IBD] have identified a large number of common disease susceptibility alleles for both Crohn’s disease [CD] and ulcerative colitis [UC], a substantial fraction of IBD heritability remains unexplained, suggesting that rare coding genetic variants may also have a role in pathogenesis. We used high-throughput sequencing in families with multiple cases of IBD, followed by genotyping of cases and controls, to investigate whether rare protein-altering genetic variants are associated with susceptibility to IBD. Methods Whole-exome sequencing was carried out in 10 families in whom three or more individuals were affected with IBD. A stepwise filtering approach was applied to exome variants, to identify potential causal variants. Follow-up genotyping was performed in 6025 IBD cases [2948 CD; 3077 UC] and 7238 controls. Results Our exome variant analysis revealed coding variants in the NLRP7 gene that were present in affected individuals in two distinct families. Genotyping of the two variants, p.S361L and p.R801H, in IBD cases and controls showed that the p.S361L variant was significantly associated with an increased risk of ulcerative colitis [odds ratio 4.79, p = 0.0039] and IBD [odds ratio 3.17, p = 0.037]. A combined analysis of both variants showed suggestive association with an increased risk of IBD [odds ratio 2.77, p = 0.018]. Conclusions The results suggest that NLRP7 signalling and inflammasome formation may be a significant component in the pathogenesis of IBD

Pooled sequencing of 531 genes in inflammatory bowel disease identifies an associated rare variant in BTNL2 and implicates other immune related genes.

The contribution of rare coding sequence variants to genetic susceptibility in complex disorders is an important but unresolved question. Most studies thus far have investigated a limited number of genes from regions which contain common disease associated variants. Here we investigate this in inflammatory bowel disease by sequencing the exons and proximal promoters of 531 genes selected from both genome-wide association studies and pathway analysis in pooled DNA panels from 474 cases of Crohn's disease and 480 controls. 80 variants with evidence of association in the sequencing experiment or with potential functional significance were selected for follow up genotyping in 6,507 IBD cases and 3,064 population controls. The top 5 disease associated variants were genotyped in an extension panel of 3,662 IBD cases and 3,639 controls, and tested for association in a combined analysis of 10,147 IBD cases and 7,008 controls. A rare coding variant p.G454C in the BTNL2 gene within the major histocompatibility complex was significantly associated with increased risk for IBD (p = 9.65x10-10, OR = 2.3[95% CI = 1.75-3.04]), but was independent of the known common associated CD and UC variants at this locus. Rare (T) or decreased risk (IL12B p.V298F, and NICN p.H191R) of IBD. These results provide additional insights into the involvement of the inhibition of T cell activation in the development of both sub-phenotypes of inflammatory bowel disease. We suggest that although rare coding variants may make a modest overall contribution to complex disease susceptibility, they can inform our understanding of the molecular pathways that contribute to pathogenesis

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Funding: F Carvalho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. (FCT), in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of the Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of the Associate Laboratory Institute for Health and Bioeconomy i4HB; FCT/MCTES through the project UIDB/50006/2020. J Conde acknowledges the European Research Council Starting Grant (ERC-StG-2019-848325). V M Costa acknowledges the grant SFRH/BHD/110001/2015, received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006.proofepub_ahead_of_prin

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dosespecific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in countryreported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81.6% [95% uncertainty interval 80.4-82 .7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39.9% [37.5-42.1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38.5% [35.4-41.3] in 1980 to 83.6% [82.3-84.8] in 2019). Third- dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42.6% (41.4-44.1) in 1980 to 79.8% (78.4-81.1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56.8 million (52.6-60. 9) to 14.5 million (13.4-15.9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries