Are Small Effects the Indispensable Foundation for a Cumulative Psychological Science? A Reply to Götz et al. (2022)

In the January 2022 issue of Perspectives, Götz et al. argued that small effects are “the indispensable foundation for a cumulative psychological science.” They supported their argument by claiming that (a) psychology, like genetics, consists of complex phenomena explained by additive small effects; (b) psychological-research culture rewards large effects, which means small effects are being ignored; and (c) small effects become meaningful at scale and over time. We rebut these claims with three objections: First, the analogy between genetics and psychology is misleading; second, p values are the main currency for publication in psychology, meaning that any biases in the literature are (currently) caused by pressure to publish statistically significant results and not large effects; and third, claims regarding small effects as important and consequential must be supported by empirical evidence or, at least, a falsifiable line of reasoning. If accepted uncritically, we believe the arguments of Götz et al. could be used as a blanket justification for the importance of any and all “small” effects, thereby undermining best practices in effect-size interpretation. We end with guidance on evaluating effect sizes in relative, not absolute, terms

Incidental durotomy: predictive risk model and external validation of natural language process identification algorithm

OBJECTIVE Incidental durotomy is a common complication of elective lumbar spine surgery seen in up to 11% of cases. Prior studies have suggested patient age and body habitus along with a history of prior surgery as being associated with an increased risk of dural tear. To date, no calculator has been developed for quantifying risk. Here, the authors' aim was to identify independent predictors of incidental durotomy, present a novel predictive calculator, and externally validate a novel method to identify incidental durotomies using natural language processing (NLP).METHODS The authors retrospectively reviewed all patients who underwent elective lumbar spine procedures at a tertiary academic hospital for degenerative pathologies between July 2016 and November 2018. Data were collected regarding surgical details, patient demographic information, and patient medical comorbidities. The primary outcome was incidental durotomy, which was identified both through manual extraction and the NLP algorithm. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of incidental durotomy. Bootstrapping was then employed to estimate optimism in the model, which was corrected for; this model was converted to a calculator and deployed online.RESULTS Of the 1279 elective lumbar surgery patients included in this study, incidental durotomy occurred in 108 (8.4%). Risk factors for incidental durotomy on multivariable logistic regression were increased surgical duration, older age, revision versus index surgery, and case starts after 4 PM. This model had an area under curve (AUC) of 0.73 in predicting incidental durotomies. The previously established NLP method was used to identify cases of incidental durotomy, of which it demonstrated excellent discrimination (AUC 0.97).CONCLUSIONS Using multivariable analysis, the authors found that increased surgical duration, older patient age, cases started after 4 PM, and a history of prior spine surgery are all independent positive predictors of incidental durotomy in patients undergoing elective lumbar surgery. Additionally, the authors put forth the first version of a clinical calculator for durotomy risk that could be used prospectively by spine surgeons when counseling patients about their surgical risk. Lastly, the authors presented an external validation of an NLP algorithm used to identify incidental durotomies through the review of free-text operative notes. The authors believe that these tools can aid clinicians and researchers in their efforts to prevent this costly complication in spine surgery

Physics Opportunities with the 12 GeV Upgrade at Jefferson Lab

This white paper summarizes the scientific opportunities for utilization of the upgraded 12 GeV Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) and associated experimental equipment at Jefferson Lab. It is based on the 52 proposals recommended for approval by the Jefferson Lab Program Advisory Committee.The upgraded facility will enable a new experimental program with substantial discovery potential to address important topics in nuclear, hadronic, and electroweak physics.Comment: 64 page

Unitarity and Interfering Resonances in pipi Scattering and in Pion Production piN->pipiN

Additivity of Breit-Wigner phases has been proposed to describe interfering resonances in partial waves in $\pi\pi$ scattering. This assumption leads to an expression for partial wave amplitudes that involves products of Breit-Wigner amplitudes. We show that this expression is equivalent to a coherent sum of Breit-Wigner amplitudes with specific complex coefficients which depend on the resonance parameters of all contributing resonances. We use analyticity of $\pi\pi$ partial wave amplitudes to show that they must have the form of a coherent sum of Breit-Wigner amplitudes with complex coefficients and a complex coherent background. The assumption of additivity of Breit-Wigner phases restricts the partial waves to analytical functions with very specific form of residues of Breit-Wigner poles. We argue that the general form provided by the analyticity is more appropriate in fits to data to determine resonance parameters. The partial wave unitarity can be imposed using the modern methods of constrained optimization. We discuss unitarity and the production amplitudes in $\pi N\to\pi\pi N$ and use analyticity in the dipion mass variable to justify the common practice of writing the production amplitudes as a coherent sum of Breit-Wigner amplitudes with free complex coefficients and a complex coherent background in fits to mass spectra with interfering resonances.Comment: 31 page

A structural MRI study in monozygotic twins concordant or discordant for attention/hyperactivity problems: Evidence for genetic and environmental heterogeneity in the developing brain.

Several structural brain abnormalities have been reported in patients with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). However, the etiology of these brain changes is still unclear. To investigate genetic and environmental influences on ADHD related neurobiological changes, we performed Voxel-Based Morphometry on MRI scans from monozygotic (MZ) twins selected from a large longitudinal population database to be highly concordant or highly discordant for ratings on the Child Behavior Checklist Attention Problem scale (CBCL-AP). Children scoring low on the CBCL-AP are at low risk for ADHD, whereas children scoring high on this scale are at high-risk for ADHD. Brain differences between concordant high-risk twin pairs and concordant low-risk twin pairs likely reflect the genetic risk for ADHD; brain differences between the low-risk and high-risk twins from discordant MZ twin pairs reflect the environmental risk for ADHD. A major difference between comparisons of high and low-risk twins from concordant pairs and high/low twins from discordant pairs was found for the prefrontal lobes. The concordant high-risk pairs showed volume loss in orbitofrontal subdivisions. High-risk members from the discordant twin pairs exhibited volume reduction in the right inferior dorsolateral prefontal cortex. In addition, the posterior corpus callosum was compromised in concordant high-risk pairs, only. Our findings indicate that inattention and hyperactivity symptoms are associated with anatomical abnormalities of a distributed action-attentional network. Different brain areas of this network appear to be affected in inattention/hyperactivity caused by genetic (i.e., high concordant MZ pairs) vs. environmental (i.e., high-low discordant MZ pairs) risk factors. These results provide clues that further our understanding of brain alterations in ADHD. © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Prospects for e+e- physics at Frascati between the phi and the psi

We present a detailed study, done in the framework of the INFN 2006 Roadmap, of the prospects for e+e- physics at the Frascati National Laboratories. The physics case for an e+e- collider running at high luminosity at the phi resonance energy and also reaching a maximum center of mass energy of 2.5 GeV is discussed, together with the specific aspects of a very high luminosity tau-charm factory. Subjects connected to Kaon decay physics are not discussed here, being part of another INFN Roadmap working group. The significance of the project and the impact on INFN are also discussed. All the documentation related to the activities of the working group can be found in http://www.roma1.infn.it/people/bini/roadmap.html.Comment: INFN Roadmap Report: 86 pages, 25 figures, 9 table

Clinical Sequencing Exploratory Research Consortium: Accelerating Evidence-Based Practice of Genomic Medicine

Despite rapid technical progress and demonstrable effectiveness for some types of diagnosis and therapy, much remains to be learned about clinical genome and exome sequencing (CGES) and its role within the practice of medicine. The Clinical Sequencing Exploratory Research (CSER) consortium includes 18 extramural research projects, one National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI) intramural project, and a coordinating center funded by the NHGRI and National Cancer Institute. The consortium is exploring analytic and clinical validity and utility, as well as the ethical, legal, and social implications of sequencing via multidisciplinary approaches; it has thus far recruited 5,577 participants across a spectrum of symptomatic and healthy children and adults by utilizing both germline and cancer sequencing. The CSER consortium is analyzing data and creating publically available procedures and tools related to participant preferences and consent, variant classification, disclosure and management of primary and secondary findings, health outcomes, and integration with electronic health records. Future research directions will refine measures of clinical utility of CGES in both germline and somatic testing, evaluate the use of CGES for screening in healthy individuals, explore the penetrance of pathogenic variants through extensive phenotyping, reduce discordances in public databases of genes and variants, examine social and ethnic disparities in the provision of genomics services, explore regulatory issues, and estimate the value and downstream costs of sequencing. The CSER consortium has established a shared community of research sites by using diverse approaches to pursue the evidence-based development of best practices in genomic medicine

A novel formulation of inhaled sodium cromoglicate (PA101) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and chronic cough: a randomised, double-blind, proof-of-concept, phase 2 trial

Background Cough can be a debilitating symptom of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and is difficult to treat. PA101 is a novel formulation of sodium cromoglicate delivered via a high-efficiency eFlow nebuliser that achieves significantly higher drug deposition in the lung compared with the existing formulations. We aimed to test the efficacy and safety of inhaled PA101 in patients with IPF and chronic cough and, to explore the antitussive mechanism of PA101, patients with chronic idiopathic cough (CIC) were also studied. Methods This pilot, proof-of-concept study consisted of a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in patients with IPF and chronic cough and a parallel study of similar design in patients with CIC. Participants with IPF and chronic cough recruited from seven centres in the UK and the Netherlands were randomly assigned (1:1, using a computer-generated randomisation schedule) by site staff to receive PA101 (40 mg) or matching placebo three times a day via oral inhalation for 2 weeks, followed by a 2 week washout, and then crossed over to the other arm. Study participants, investigators, study staff, and the sponsor were masked to group assignment until all participants had completed the study. The primary efficacy endpoint was change from baseline in objective daytime cough frequency (from 24 h acoustic recording, Leicester Cough Monitor). The primary efficacy analysis included all participants who received at least one dose of study drug and had at least one post-baseline efficacy measurement. Safety analysis included all those who took at least one dose of study drug. In the second cohort, participants with CIC were randomly assigned in a study across four centres with similar design and endpoints. The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02412020) and the EU Clinical Trials Register (EudraCT Number 2014-004025-40) and both cohorts are closed to new participants. Findings Between Feb 13, 2015, and Feb 2, 2016, 24 participants with IPF were randomly assigned to treatment groups. 28 participants with CIC were enrolled during the same period and 27 received study treatment. In patients with IPF, PA101 reduced daytime cough frequency by 31·1% at day 14 compared with placebo; daytime cough frequency decreased from a mean 55 (SD 55) coughs per h at baseline to 39 (29) coughs per h at day 14 following treatment with PA101, versus 51 (37) coughs per h at baseline to 52 (40) cough per h following placebo treatment (ratio of least-squares [LS] means 0·67, 95% CI 0·48–0·94, p=0·0241). By contrast, no treatment benefit for PA101 was observed in the CIC cohort; mean reduction of daytime cough frequency at day 14 for PA101 adjusted for placebo was 6·2% (ratio of LS means 1·27, 0·78–2·06, p=0·31). PA101 was well tolerated in both cohorts. The incidence of adverse events was similar between PA101 and placebo treatments, most adverse events were mild in severity, and no severe adverse events or serious adverse events were reported. Interpretation This study suggests that the mechanism of cough in IPF might be disease specific. Inhaled PA101 could be a treatment option for chronic cough in patients with IPF and warrants further investigation

One sixth of Amazonian tree diversity is dependent on river floodplains

Amazonia's floodplain system is the largest and most biodiverse on Earth. Although forests are crucial to the ecological integrity of floodplains, our understanding of their species composition and how this may differ from surrounding forest types is still far too limited, particularly as changing inundation regimes begin to reshape floodplain tree communities and the critical ecosystem functions they underpin. Here we address this gap by taking a spatially explicit look at Amazonia-wide patterns of tree-species turnover and ecological specialization of the region's floodplain forests. We show that the majority of Amazonian tree species can inhabit floodplains, and about a sixth of Amazonian tree diversity is ecologically specialized on floodplains. The degree of specialization in floodplain communities is driven by regional flood patterns, with the most compositionally differentiated floodplain forests located centrally within the fluvial network and contingent on the most extraordinary flood magnitudes regionally. Our results provide a spatially explicit view of ecological specialization of floodplain forest communities and expose the need for whole-basin hydrological integrity to protect the Amazon's tree diversity and its function.Naturali