A Note on Statistical Distances for Discrete Log-Concave Measures

In this note we explore how standard statistical distances are equivalent for discrete log-concave distributions. Distances include total variation distance, Wasserstein distance, and $f$-divergences.Comment: 12 page

Influence of weather parameters on progress of rust disease severity in pea (Pisum sativum L.)

Decision to apply one or more fungicide spray will depend on the risk of rust epidemic in a particular year. Rust epidemic is determined by interaction of three important factors namely, susceptible host, virulent pathogen and the most important i.e. favourable environment for a particular period of time. Therefore, it is necessary to study the correlation between different meteorological parameters and rust severity. Present study revealed that rust dis-ease generally appeared 60 days after sowing and was subsequently increased with a period of time till harvest (4.17 to 64.17 per cent). Disease was observed at a maximum temperature of 16.85 to 24.79áµ’C, 8.09 to 12.27áµ’C minimum temperature, 90.30 to 95.70 percent morning Relative Humidity (RH), 54.80 to 78.40 percent afternoons RH, 0.10 to 5.45mm rainfall and wind velocity of 3.93 to 4.23 km/hr. The correlation between different meteorological parameters and rust severity revealed that per cent disease severity showed highly positive correlation with maxi-mum temperature (r = 0.977), minimum temperature (r = 0.704), rainfall (r = 0.039) and wind velocity(r = 0.093) whereas disease severity show negative correlation with morning(r=-0.925) and afternoon RH (r = -0.926). It was observed that the rust severity is highly influenced by the different weather parameters such as temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind velocity. This information will help the researchers in formulating the forecasting model for the rust disease in pea and will also supports farmers in decision making regarding time of occurrence of rust epi-demic and thereby, allow timely scheduling and need based utilization of fungicides accordingly for the management of pea rust

Effect of by-pass protein supplements on milk production of dairy cattle

Bypass protein stimulates the voluntary feed intake, increase quality milk production and thereby improves the economic status of dairy cows farming. This study was conducted to assess the effect of supplementation of bypass protein on lactation performance of dairy cattle. The experiment was conducted by using 2 factorial completely randomized designs. Milk yield of individual animal was recorded daily and milk composition was recorded at fortnight interval. Results revealed that the average daily milk yield of cows fed with Heat treated soyabean cake-T1 (4.29 L) was greater than cows fed with formalin treated soyabean cake-T2 (3.56 L) followed by control group-T3 (2.62 L). . The fortnight average milk protein and fat percentages were 2.91, 2.94 and 3.18% and 5.52, 5.55 and 4.47% for T0, T1 and T2 groups respectively. The weekly average milk SNF and milk density were 8.12, 8.37 and 8.64 % and 25.67, 27.80 and 27.10%, for group T0, T1 and T2 respectively. Experiment revealed that by-pass protein supplementation to lactating animals is one of the option for improving the milk production and milk composition and suggested that further study should be conducted to precise the optimum level of bypass protein supplementation and to quantify the experimental period

Evaluation of 18F-nifene binding to α4β2 nicotinic receptors in the rat brain using microPET imaging

MicroPET imaging studies using 18F-nifene, a new positron emission tomography (PET) radiotracer for nicotinic acetylcholinergic receptors (nAChR) α4β2 receptors in rats, have been carried out. Rats were imaged for 90 min after intravenous injection of 18F-nifene (0.8 to 1 mCi), and binding potential (BPND) was measured. 18F-Nifene binding to thalamic and extrathalamic brain regions was consistent with the α4β2 nAChR distribution in the rat brain. Using the cerebellum as a reference, the values for the thalamus varied less than 5% (BPND = 1.30, n = 3), confirming reproducibility of 18F-nifene binding. 18F-Nifene microPET imaging was also used to evaluate effects of nicotine in a group of Sprague-Dawley rats under isoflurane anesthesia. Nicotine challenge postadministration of 18F-nifene demonstrated reversibility of 18F-nifene binding in vivo. For α4β2 nAChR receptor occupancy (nAChROCC), various doses of nicotine (0, 0.02, 0.1, 0.25, and 0.50 mg/kg nicotine free base) 15 min prior to 18F-nifene were administered. Low-dose nicotine (0.02 mg) reached > 80% nAChROCC while at higher doses (0.25 mg) > 90% nAChROCC was measured. The small amount of 18F-nifene binding with reference to the cerebellum affects an accurate evaluation of nAChROCC. Efforts are underway to identify alternate reference regions for 18F-nifene microPET studies in rodents

Unmasking the elusive: an early gestational age placenta accreta case series to illuminate the path towards avoiding missed diagnosis

Placenta accreta is a condition characterized by the abnormal invasion of the placenta into the uterine wall, leading to torrential hemorrhage. This case series, highlights the importance of accurate diagnosis and early detection of this life-threatening complication. The incidence of this iatrogenic complication is rising due to increased caesarean deliveries. While in advance stages of pregnancy the chances of missing accreta are less but in early pregnancy the diagnosis may be elusive. Timely detection by using imaging modalities like ultrasound both 2D and colour Doppler, provide valuable clues. Misdiagnosis may be fatal, especially in the first trimester. The present case series presents 3 cases where initial diagnosis of missed abortion followed by repeated curettage and gestational trophoblastic disease (GTD) was made respectively. The agony of suffering leads the patient to our tertiary care center where the diagnosis of accreta was made. Accurate diagnosis and early detection of placenta accreta are vital to optimize patient outcome. Detecting the nicheand an anteriorly situated low lying placenta with history of previous birth by caesarian section should raise suspicion, and vigilance on the part of treating obstetrician is must

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

NON-ADDITIVE MEASURES

In the August-December 2017 semester, we studied the concept of non-additive measures (also known as Fuzzy Measures). We started by discussing classical measure. Classical Measures are nonnegative real-valued set functions, each de�ned on a speci�c class of subsets of a given universal set, that satisfy certain axiomatic requirements. One of these requirements, crucial to classical measures, is known as the requirement of additivity. Next, we de�ned monotone measures. Monotone measures are classi�ed into four classes, namely, additive measure, superadditive measure, subadditive measure and measures that do not belong to any of the three classes. Some non-additive measures such as Choquet Capacity, Sugeno measure, Belief and Plausibility Measures are also discussed and exempli�ed in this report. Finally, we discussed an application of belief and plausibility measure in decision making. In the January-May 2018 Semester, we study optimization of non-additive measures and as a �rst step we study optimization over additive measures, i.e., probability measures. We see that real life optimization problems contain uncertain data. These data can be uncertain due to measurement or estimation errors or implementation errors due to physical impossibility. There are two approaches to deal with these errors, which are Stochastic Optimization and Robust Optimization. We study robust optimization formulation for coherent risk function minimization. In this section, we also study conditions for convexifying the problem. Then, we study examples and applications of norm-constrained coherent risk minimization. Finally, we study portfolio optimization and binary Classi�cation using SVM

Evaluation of Pea Germplasms for Rust Disease Resistance

Among 46 numbers of total germplasms screened, two germplasms Pant P 244 and Pant P 42 showed moderate resistant, 13 germplasms were moderately susceptible, 29 germplasms were found susceptible and two germplasms HFP-4 and HUVP 1 were found highly susceptible. Moderately resistant germplasm showed low AUDPC value (160.83-188.33) with slow infection rate (0.054-0.062). Pustule appeared on these genotypes were small (1.5-1.7mm) as compare to other susceptible genotypes whereas moderately susceptible genotypes scored AUDPC value from 175.83-437.50 with infection rate of 0.051-0.095. Size of the pustules showed high variation of 1.3-4.4mm. Genotypes with susceptible reaction showed AUDPC value of 292.50-797.50. Infection rate was ranged from 0.055-0.113 with pustule size of 2.9-4.8mm. Those genotypes which fall under highly susceptible reaction (HFP-4 and HUVP-1) scored highest AUDPC value of 1078.33-1223.33 with 0.064-0.075 infection rate. They showed largest pustule size of 4.2-4.6mm. Thus, two genotypes showing moderately resistant reaction in the following experiment can be fruitfully integrate with reduced number of fungicidal spray to obtain maximum yield with minimal rust severity