Natural insurance, conservation of forests and poverty reduction in the semi-arid region of Tigray, northern Ethiopia

This study deals with the interaction of vulnerability to shocks, conservation intervention and poverty reduction using a survey of households living along the margins of forests in the semi-arid region of Tigray, Ethiopia. Five major conclusions that have wider policy implications are derived from this study. First, forest environmental resources provide a natural insurance for households vulnerable to idiosyncratic and covariate risks in rural Tigray, enforcing the widely held view that forests are important as economic buffer in hard times. Second, even if forests provide the food security and income they may perpetuate poverty. Third, households in rural Tigray are not driven into forest extraction for coping shocks only but also by diversification strategy, suggesting that the problem for local communities has both the characteristics of portfolio analysis and economics of insurance. Fourth, forest incomes decrease the incidence of poverty while it increases income inequality in rural Tigray. Finally, we find that the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) in Tigray contributes in pursuing the twin goals of poverty reduction and conservation of forests that have often been portrayed as opposing goals. One important policy implication of this study is that government, policy-makers and natural resource managers need to acknowledge the livelihood safety- net role that forests play in rural livelihoods and recognize that environmental protection policies limiting or banning access and use of forest resources can deepen rural poverty. Finally, the study underlines the importance of promotion of public safety nets such as the PSNP, and the promotion of government programmes and policies that increase the productivity of agricultural production and support diversification into off-farm livelihood and income sources to provide positive incentives for forest conservation and sustainable use

Woody Species Diversity in Oxytenanthera abyssinica Based Homestead Agroforestry Systems of Serako, Northern Ethiopia

In northern Ethiopia, establishment of exclosures and management of remnant protected natural forests to conserve and enhance forest products and services have been practiced for the past three decades. However, empirical data on the effectiveness of lowland bamboo based homestead agroforestry system in rescuing woody species diversity are lacking. The study was assessed the woody species diversity, density and composition of O. abyssinica based homestead agroforestry systems in Serako, Tselemti district. Data were collected from a total of ninety nine farms and plots with 10m*10m area, ninety from less than five year, five to ten years and greater than ten years domestication of O. abyssinica based homesteads and one exclosure with nine plots as comparison were taken. The study revealed that species density, richness and diversity were significantly higher in the exclosure than in the three homesteads (p<0.000). The study showed that a total of 48 tree species in 25 families and 24 tree species in 11 families for the homestead agroforestry systems and exclosure respectively were recorded. Following the age gradient, there was a significant difference in density, richness and diversity between greater than ten and less than five year domesticated O. abyssinica homestead agroforestry systems (p<0.000). This study confirmed that woody species diversity was higher for those households that domesticate O. abyssinica on their homesteads earlier than those households that domesticate later on their homesteads. Oxytenanthera abyssinica was not found in the exclosure, showing a distinct conscious selection for planting in the homesteads as agroforestry system. It is suggested that homestead agroforestry systems are effective for increasing biodiversity and socio-economic contributions to rural households. Keywords: Oxytenanthera abyssinica, woody species diversity, Tselemti

Conversion of degraded agricultural landscapes to a smallholder agroforestry system and carbon sequestration in drylands

Purpose – This paper aims at providing the evidence about how carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems could contribute to the decrease of atmospheric CO 2 rates through the adoption of appropriate cropping systems such as agroforestry. Design/methodology/approach – Stratified randomly selected plots were used to collect data on tree diameter at breast height (DBH). Composite soil samples were collected from three soil depths for soil carbon analysis. Above ground biomass estimation was made using an allometric equation. The spectral signature of each plot was extracted to study the statistical relationship between carbon stock and selected vegetation indices. Findings – There was a significant difference in vegetation and soil carbon stocks among the different land use/land cover types (P < 0.05). The potential carbon stock was highest in the vegetation found in sparsely cultivated land (13.13 ± 1.84 tons ha −1) and in soil in bushland (19.21 ± 3.79 tons ha −1). Carbon sequestration potential of the study area significantly increased (+127174.5 tons CO 2 e) as a result of conversion of intensively cultivated agricultural lands to agroforestry systems. The amount of sequestered carbon was found to be dependent on species diversity, tree density and tree size. The vegetation indices had a better correlation with soil and total carbon.There was a significant difference in vegetation and soil carbon stocks among the different land use/land cover types (P < 0.05). The potential carbon stock was highest in the vegetation found in sparsely cultivated land (13.13 ± 1.84 tons ha −1) and in soil in bushland (19.21 ± 3.79 tons ha −1). Carbon sequestration potential of the study area significantly increased (+127174.5 tons CO 2 e) as a result of conversion of intensively cultivated agricultural lands to agroforestry systems. The amount of sequestered carbon was found to be dependent on species diversity, tree density and tree size. The vegetation indices had a better correlation with soil and total carbon. Originality/value – The paper has addressed an important aspect in curbing greenhouse gases in integrated land systems. The paper brings a new empirical insight of carbon sequestration potentials of agroforestry systems with a focus on drylands

Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10–24 years during the past three decades. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10–14, 15–19, and 20–24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. Findings: In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10–24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39·4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010–19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16·7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48·5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0·2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010–19. Interpretation: As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low–middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings In 2019 there were 1.49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1.39-1.59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32.7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32.1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27.0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8.2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30.0% in females and 15.3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1.3% in males and 1.6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2.4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2.5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9.5% to 21.6%. Interpretation Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd