The role of rapid diagnostics in managing Ebola epidemics

Ebola emerged in West Africa around December 2013 and swept through Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, giving rise to 27,748 confirmed, probable and suspected cases reported by 29 July 2015. Case diagnoses during the epidemic have relied on polymerase chain reaction-based tests. Owing to limited laboratory capacity and local transport infrastructure, the delays from sample collection to test results being available have often been 2 days or more. Point-of-care rapid diagnostic tests offer the potential to substantially reduce these delays. We review Ebola rapid diagnostic tests approved by the World Health Organization and those currently in development. Such rapid diagnostic tests could allow early triaging of patients, thereby reducing the potential for nosocomial transmission. In addition, despite the lower test accuracy, rapid diagnostic test-based diagnosis may be beneficial in some contexts because of the reduced time spent by uninfected individuals in health-care settings where they may be at increased risk of infection; this also frees up hospital beds. We use mathematical modelling to explore the potential benefits of diagnostic testing strategies involving rapid diagnostic tests alone and in combination with polymerase chain reaction testing. Our analysis indicates that the use of rapid diagnostic tests with sensitivity and specificity comparable with those currently under development always enhances control, whether evaluated at a health-care-unit or population level. If such tests had been available throughout the recent epidemic, we estimate, for Sierra Leone, that their use in combination with confirmatory polymerase chain-reaction testing might have reduced the scale of the epidemic by over a third

A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence

Outbreaks of novel pathogens such as SARS, pandemic influenza and Ebola require substantial investments in reactive interventions, with consequent implementation plans sometimes revised on a weekly basis. Therefore, short-term forecasts of incidence are often of high priority. In light of the recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa, a forecasting exercise was convened by a network of infectious disease modellers. The challenge was to forecast unseen “future” simulated data for four different scenarios at five different time points. In a similar method to that used during the recent Ebola epidemic, we estimated current levels of transmissibility, over variable time-windows chosen in an ad hoc way. Current estimated transmissibility was then used to forecast near-future incidence. We performed well within the challenge and often produced accurate forecasts. A retrospective analysis showed that our subjective method for deciding on the window of time with which to estimate transmissibility often resulted in the optimal choice. However, when near-future trends deviated substantially from exponential patterns, the accuracy of our forecasts was reduced. This exercise highlights the urgent need for infectious disease modellers to develop more robust descriptions of processes – other than the widespread depletion of susceptible individuals – that produce non-exponential patterns of incidence

Genome-wide Association Study Identifies Two Susceptibility Loci for Osteosarcoma

Osteosarcoma is the most common primary bone malignancy of adolescents and young adults. In order to better understand the genetic etiology of osteosarcoma, we performed a multi-stage genome-wide association study (GWAS) consisting of 941 cases and 3,291 cancer-free adult controls of European ancestry. Two loci achieved genome-wide significance: rs1906953 at 6p21.3, in the glutamate receptor metabotropic 4 [GRM4] gene (P = 8.1 ×10-9), and rs7591996 and rs10208273 in a gene desert on 2p25.2 (P = 1.0 ×10-8 and 2.9 ×10-7). These two susceptibility loci warrant further exploration to uncover the biological mechanisms underlying susceptibility to osteosarcoma

Host hindrance to HIV-1 replication in monocytes and macrophages

Monocytes and macrophages are targets of HIV-1 infection and play critical roles in multiple aspects of viral pathogenesis. HIV-1 can replicate in blood monocytes, although only a minor proportion of circulating monocytes harbor viral DNA. Resident macrophages in tissues can be infected and function as viral reservoirs. However, their susceptibility to infection, and their capacity to actively replicate the virus, varies greatly depending on the tissue localization and cytokine environment. The susceptibility of monocytes to HIV-1 infection in vitro depends on their differentiation status. Monocytes are refractory to infection and become permissive upon differentiation into macrophages. In addition, the capacity of monocyte-derived macrophages to sustain viral replication varies between individuals. Host determinants regulate HIV-1 replication in monocytes and macrophages, limiting several steps of the viral life-cycle, from viral entry to virus release. Some host factors responsible for HIV-1 restriction are shared with T lymphocytes, but several anti-viral mechanisms are specific to either monocytes or macrophages. Whilst a number of these mechanisms have been identified in monocytes or in monocyte-derived macrophages in vitro, some of them have also been implicated in the regulation of HIV-1 infection in vivo, in particular in the brain and the lung where macrophages are the main cell type infected by HIV-1. This review focuses on cellular factors that have been reported to interfere with HIV-1 infection in monocytes and macrophages, and examines the evidences supporting their role in vivo, highlighting unique aspects of HIV-1 restriction in these two cell types

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors 2017 includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. METHODS: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting

Genome-wide association study identifies two susceptibility loci for osteosarcoma

Osteosarcoma is the most common primary bone malignancy of adolescents and young adults. To better understand the genetic etiology of osteosarcoma, we performed a multistage genome-wide association study consisting of 941 individuals with osteosarcoma (cases) and 3,291 cancer-free adult controls of European ancestry. Two loci achieved genome-wide significance: a locus in the GRM4 gene at 6p21.3 (encoding glutamate receptor metabotropic 4; rs1906953; P = 8.1 × 10⁻⁹) and a locus in the gene desert at 2p25.2 (rs7591996 and rs10208273; P = 1.0 × 10⁻⁸ and 2.9 × 10⁻⁷, respectively). These two loci warrant further exploration to uncover the biological mechanisms underlying susceptibility to osteosarcoma

Advancing schizophrenia drug discovery : optimizing rodent models to bridge the translational gap

Although our knowledge of the pathophysiology of schizophrenia has increased, treatments for this devastating illness remain inadequate. Here, we critically assess rodent models and behavioural end points used in schizophrenia drug discovery and discuss why these have not led to improved treatments. We provide a perspective on how new models, based on recent advances in the understanding of the genetics and neural circuitry underlying schizophrenia, can bridge the translational gap and lead to the development of more effective drugs. We conclude that previous serendipitous approaches should be replaced with rational strategies for drug discovery in integrated preclinical and clinical programmes. Validation of drug targets in disease-based models that are integrated with translationally relevant end point assessments will reduce the current attrition rate in schizophrenia drug discovery and ultimately lead to therapies that tackle the disease process

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.; We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury

Related subunits of NF-[kappa]B map to two distinct loci associated with translocations in leukemia, NFKB1 and NFKB2

The chromosomal locations of the human genes NFKB1 and NFKB2, which encode two alternative DNA binding subunits of the NF-[kappa]B complex, p105 and p49/p100, respectively, have been determined. p105 was assigned to 4q21.1-q24 and p49/p100 to chromosome 10 by Southern blot analysis of panels of human/Chinese hamster cell hybrids. The locations were confirmed by fluorescence in situ hybridization and mapped with greater resolution to 4q23 and 10q24, respectively. These results demonstrate that these members of the NF-[kappa]B family are unlinked. Interestingly, p49/p100 as well as p105 maps to regions associated with certain types of acute lymphoblastic leukemia.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/30009/1/0000377.pd