The determinants of election to the United Nations Security Council

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11127-013-0096-4.The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is the foremost international body responsible for the maintenance of international peace and security. Members vote on issues of global importance and consequently receive perks—election to the UNSC predicts, for instance, World Bank and IMF loans. But who gets elected to the UNSC? Addressing this question empirically is not straightforward as it requires a model that allows for discrete choices at the regional and international levels; the former nominates candidates while the latter ratifies them. Using an original multiple discrete choice model to analyze a dataset of 180 elections from 1970 to 2005, we find that UNSC election appears to derive from a compromise between the demands of populous countries to win election more frequently and a norm of giving each country its turn. We also find evidence that richer countries from the developing world win election more often, while involvement in warfare lowers election probability. By contrast, development aid does not predict election

Open randomised trial of the (Arabin) pessary to prevent preterm birth in twin pregnancy with health economics and acceptability: STOPPIT-2-a study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: The STOPPIT-2 study aims to determine the clinical utility of the Arabin cervical pessary in preventing preterm birth in women with a twin pregnancy and a short cervix, about which there is current uncertainty. STOPPIT-2 will resolve uncertainty around effectiveness for women with a twin pregnancy and a cervical length of 35 mm or less, define adverse effects, ascertain acceptability and estimate National Health Service costs and savings. METHODS: STOPPIT-2 is a pragmatic multicentre open-label randomised controlled trial. Consenting women with twin pregnancy will have an transvaginal ultrasound scan of their cervical length performed between 18+0 and 20+6 weeks' gestation by an accredited practitioner: women with a cervical length of ≤35 mm will be eligible for inclusion in the treatment phase of the study. The intervention by the insertion of the Arabin cervical pessary will be compared with standard treatment (no pessary).The primary outcomes are (obstetric) spontaneous onset of labour for the mother leading to delivery before 34 weeks' gestation and (neonatal) a composite of specific adverse outcomes or death occurring up to the end of the first 4 weeks after the estimated date of delivery to either or both babies.We plan to recruit 500 women in the treatment phase of the study. Assuming a treatment effect of 0.6, and background rates of 35% and 18%, respectively, for each of the primary outcomes, our study has 85% power to detect a difference between the intervention and the control groups. ANALYSIS: Data will be analysed on the intention-to-treat principle. ETHICS: STOPPIT-2 was approved by the South East Scotland Ethics Committee 02 on 29 August 2014, reference number 14/SS/1031 IRAS ID 159610. DISSEMINATION: Peer reviewed journals, presentations at national and international scientific meetings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN98835694 and NCT02235181

Evaluation of the Arabin cervical pessary for prevention of preterm birth in women with a twin pregnancy and short cervix (STOPPIT-2): An open-label randomised trial and updated meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Preterm-labour-associated preterm birth is a common cause of perinatal mortality and morbidity in twin pregnancy. We aimed to test the hypothesis that the Arabin pessary would reduce preterm-labour-associated preterm birth by 40% or greater in women with a twin pregnancy and a short cervix. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted an open-label randomised controlled trial in 57 hospital antenatal clinics in the UK and Europe. From 1 April 2015 to 14 February 2019, 2,228 women with a twin pregnancy underwent cervical length screening between 18 weeks 0 days and 20 weeks 6 days of gestation. In total, 503 women with cervical length ≤ 35 mm were randomly assigned to pessary in addition to standard care (n = 250, mean age 32.4 years, mean cervical length 29 mm, with pessary inserted in 230 women [92.0%]) or standard care alone (n = 253, mean age 32.7 years, mean cervical length 30 mm). The pessary was inserted before 21 completed weeks of gestation and removed at between 35 and 36 weeks or before birth if earlier. The primary obstetric outcome, spontaneous onset of labour and birth before 34 weeks 0 days of gestation, was present in 46/250 (18.4%) in the pessary group compared to 52/253 (20.6%) following standard care alone (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.87 [95% CI 0.55-1.38], p = 0.54). The primary neonatal outcome-a composite of any of stillbirth, neonatal death, periventricular leukomalacia, early respiratory morbidity, intraventricular haemorrhage, necrotising enterocolitis, or proven sepsis, from birth to 28 days after the expected date of delivery-was present in 67/500 infants (13.4%) in the pessary group compared to 76/506 (15.0%) following standard care alone (aOR 0.86 [95% CI 0.54-1.36], p = 0.50). The positive and negative likelihood ratios of a short cervix (≤35 mm) to predict preterm birth before 34 weeks were 2.14 and 0.83, respectively. A meta-analysis of data from existing publications (4 studies, 313 women) and from STOPPIT-2 indicated that a cervical pessary does not reduce preterm birth before 34 weeks in women with a short cervix (risk ratio 0.74 [95% CI 0.50-1.11], p = 0.15). No women died in either arm of the study; 4.4% of babies in the Arabin pessary group and 5.5% of babies in the standard treatment group died in utero or in the neonatal period (p = 0.53). Study limitations include lack of power to exclude a smaller than 40% reduction in preterm labour associated preterm birth, and to be conclusive about subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS: These results led us to reject our hypothesis that the Arabin pessary would reduce the risk of the primary outcome by 40%. Smaller treatment effects cannot be ruled out. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN 02235181. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02235181

Measurement of the cross-section and charge asymmetry of WW bosons produced in proton-proton collisions at s=8\sqrt{s}=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents measurements of the $W^+ \rightarrow \mu^+\nu$ and $W^- \rightarrow \mu^-\nu$ cross-sections and the associated charge asymmetry as a function of the absolute pseudorapidity of the decay muon. The data were collected in proton--proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC and correspond to a total integrated luminosity of 20.2~\mbox{fb^{-1}}. The precision of the cross-section measurements varies between 0.8% to 1.5% as a function of the pseudorapidity, excluding the 1.9% uncertainty on the integrated luminosity. The charge asymmetry is measured with an uncertainty between 0.002 and 0.003. The results are compared with predictions based on next-to-next-to-leading-order calculations with various parton distribution functions and have the sensitivity to discriminate between them.Comment: 38 pages in total, author list starting page 22, 5 figures, 4 tables, submitted to EPJC. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at https://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/STDM-2017-13

Search for chargino-neutralino production with mass splittings near the electroweak scale in three-lepton final states in √s=13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for supersymmetry through the pair production of electroweakinos with mass splittings near the electroweak scale and decaying via on-shell W and Z bosons is presented for a three-lepton final state. The analyzed proton-proton collision data taken at a center-of-mass energy of √s=13  TeV were collected between 2015 and 2018 by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139  fb−1. A search, emulating the recursive jigsaw reconstruction technique with easily reproducible laboratory-frame variables, is performed. The two excesses observed in the 2015–2016 data recursive jigsaw analysis in the low-mass three-lepton phase space are reproduced. Results with the full data set are in agreement with the Standard Model expectations. They are interpreted to set exclusion limits at the 95% confidence level on simplified models of chargino-neutralino pair production for masses up to 345 GeV

Parental attachment and depressive symptoms in pregnancies complicated by twin-twin transfusion syndrome: a cohort study

BACKGROUND: Twin-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) is a highly morbid condition in which treatment exists, but the pregnancy remains high-risk until delivery. It may have serious sequelae, including fetal death, and in the longer term, neurodevelopmental problems. The aim of this study is to assess antenatal and postnatal parental attachment and depressive symptoms in those with pregnancies affected by TTTS. METHODS: Couples attending for fetoscopic laser ablation treatment of TTTS were asked to complete Condon's Maternal/Paternal Antenatal/Postnatal Attachment Scale as appropriate, and the Edinburgh Depression Scale the day before ablation, 4 weeks post-ablation, and 6-10 weeks postnatally. RESULTS: 25/27 couples completed the pre-ablation questionnaire (median gestational age 19 + 3 weeks [interquartile range 18 + 2-20 + 6]). 8/18 eligible couples returned the post-ablation questionnaire. 5/17 eligible couples returned the postnatal questionnaire. There was no significant difference in parento-fetal attachment when mothers were compared to fathers at each time point, however parento-fetal attachment did increase over time in mothers (p = 0.004), but not fathers. Mothers reported more depressive symptoms antenatally compared to fathers (p < 0.02), but there was no difference postnatally. 50% women reported Edinburgh Depression Scale scores above the cut-off (≥15) 4 weeks post-ablation. Over time maternal depressive symptoms decreased (p = 0.006), however paternal depressive symptoms remained the same. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first attachment and depression study in a UK cohort of parents with pregnancies affected by TTTS. Although this was a small cohort and the questionnaires used had not been validated in these circumstances, the results suggest that centres caring for these couples should be aware of the risk of maternal and paternal antenatal depression, and screen and refer for additional psychological support. Further work is needed in larger cohorts. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 13114861 (retrospectively registered)

Looking Good: Mediatisation and International NGOs

Many international NGOs value those parts of their work that are suited to media representation: campaigning, advocacy, projects that produce the right sort of images. In this article I make three points about this change. First, those parts of the NGO most reliant on media – such as the campaign desk – may be becoming more powerful. This can change the internal dynamics of NGOs. Second, the increasing use of media means that NGOs, like other organisations, hold themselves accountable in new ways. Third, NGOs may appear to look more and more like media organisations. These changes have received relatively little attention in the literature on NGOs, though they reflect a broader set of debates about the role of media in society. Using a case analysis of an international NGO, I suggest that the concept of mediatisation might be a useful way to understand some of the changes observed in the NGO sector