Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Watershed modeling for reducing future non-point source sediment and phosphorus load in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Purpose - Agricultural intensification to meet the food needs of the rapidly growing population in developing countries affects water quality. In regions such as the Lake Tana basin, knowledge is lacking on measures to reduce non-point source pollutants in humid tropical monsoon climates. The aim of this paper was, therefore, to develop a non-point model that can predict the placement of practices to reduce the transport of sediment and phosphorus (P) in a (sub) humid watershed. Materials and methods - In order to achieve the objective, hydrometeorological, sediment, and P data were collected in the watershed since 2014. The parameter efficient semi-distributed watershed model (PED-WM) was calibrated and validated in the Ethiopian highlands to simulate runoff and associated sediments generated through saturation excess. The P module added to PED-WM was used to predict dissolved (DP) and particulate P (PP) loads aside from discharge and sediment loads of the 700 ha of the Awramba watershed of Lake Tana basin. The PED-WM modules were evaluated using the statistical model performance measuring techniques. The model parameter based prediction of source areas for the non-point source sediment and P was also evaluated spatially and compared with the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) of the watershed. Results and discussion - The water balance component of the non-point source model performed well in predicting discharge, sediment, DP, and PP with NSE of 0.7, 0.65, 0.65, and 0.63, respectively. In addition, the predicted discharge followed the hydrograph with insignificant deviation from its pattern due to seasonality. The model predicted a sediment yield of 28.2 t ha-1 year-1 and P yield of 9.2 kg ha-1 year-1 from Awrmaba. Furthermore, non-point source areas contributed to 2.7 kg ha-1 year-1 (29%) of DP at the outlet. The main runoff and sediment source areas identified using PED-WM were the periodically saturated runoff areas. These saturated areas were also the main source for DP and PP transport in the catchment. Conclusions - Using the PED-WM with the P module enables the identification of the source areas as well as the prediction of P and sediment loading which yields valuable information for watershed management and placement of best management practices

Water Quality Assessment by Measuring and Using Landsat 7 ETM+ Images for the Current and Previous Trend Perspective: Lake Tana Ethiopia

Recently there are signs of water quality impairment in Lake Tana, the largest fresh water in Ethiopia. The lake is the growth corridor of the government and supports millions of livelihood around. In order to sustain the benefit and maintain the ecosystem of the lake, the lake health has to be kept safe. Therefore monitoring and evaluation of the water quality of lake is very vital. This study focuses on current and previous trends water quality of the lake through measurements and Landsat Images near entry of Gumera River. Statistical analysis of the physical (Turbidity and STD and biological (Cha-a,) and chemical (DPC) water quality parameters were done. Linear and non-linear regression models between water quality parameter and reflectance of Landsat 7 ETM+ images were fitted based on band combinations. Pervious trend in turbidity was analyzed based on the regression models. The results showed that reflectance and turbidity satisfactorily result with an R2 ranging from 0.61 - 0.68. Form 1999-2014 the turbidity of the lake has indicated an increasing trend. Delta development near the entry of Gumera River has been enlarged by 48% because of an increase sediment inflow. The sign in the decreasing water quality of the lake was attributed to the non-point source sediment and nutrient inflow to the lake with high erosion rate from the watersheds. Measures to reduce the non-point source sediment and nutrient inflow by targeting the source areas (hot spots) in the agricultural watersheds need to be priority for stakeholders working on the soil and water conservation. Moreover, reducing the recession agriculture around the lake and wetland management could be crucial for improving lake water quality

Suitability of watershed models to predict distributed hydrologic response in the Awramba Watershed in Lake Tana Basin

Planning effective landscape interventions is an important tool to fight against land degradation and requires knowledge on spatial distribution of runoff. The objective of this paper was to test models that predict temporal and spatial distribution of runoff. The selected models were PED-WM, HBV-IHMS and SWAT. We choose 7 km2 Awramba watershed in the Lake Tana basin with detailed hydrological information for testing these models. Discharge at the outlet, rainfall and distributed information on infiltration rates, water table and extent of the saturated area were collected from 2013 to 2015. The maximum saturated area was 6.5% of the watershed. Infiltration rates exceeded rainfall intensities 91% of the time. Hence saturation excess runoff was the main runoff mechanism. Models were calibrated for the rainy seasons 2013, 2014 and validated for 2015. For daily flow validation, the PED-WM model (Nash Sutcliff efficiency, NSE = 0.61) outperformed HBV-IHMS (NSE = 0.51) and SWAT (NSE = 0.48). Performance on monthly time step was similar. Difference in model behavior depended on runoff mechanism. In PED-WM saturation excess is the main direct runoff process and could predict the maximum extent of the saturated area closely at 6.9%. HBV-IHMS model runoff simulation depended on soil moisture status and evapotranspiration, and hence was able to simulate saturation excess flow but not the extent of the saturated area. In SWAT where infiltration excess is the main runoff mechanism could only predict the monthly discharges well. This study shows that prevailing runoff mechanisms and distribution of runoff source areas should be used for proper model selection

Sediment loss patterns in the sub-humid Ethiopian Highlands

Controlling soil erosion is important for maintaining land productivity and reducing sedimentation of reservoirs in the Ethiopian highlands. To gain insights on sediment loss patterns, magnitude of peak sediment events, and their contribution to annual loads, hydrometric and sediment concentration data were collected for five years (2010 – 2014) from the 95 ha Debre Mawi and four nested catchments (located 30 km south of Lake Tana). Soil and water conservation practices (SWCPs) consisting of soil bunds with 50 cm deep furrows were implemented in the third year, which made it possible to examine the effects of SWCPs on peak sediment loads. The results show that a 10-minute event causes soil loss of up to 11.4 Mg ha-1, which is 22% of the annual sediment yield. Thirty to seventy-five percent (up to 30 Mg ha-1day-1) of the sediment yield was contributed by the greatest daily flow in each year. The contribution increases to 86% for the two largest daily flows. SWCP interventions reduced sediment loss by half but did not affect the relative contribution of peak events to annual loads. Due to gully erosion, peak sediment loads at the outlet of the entire catchment were greater (up to 30 Mg ha-1day-1) as compared to the nested catchments without gullies (0.5 to 8 Mg ha-1day-1). Consequently, to reduce sediment loss, conservation measures should be designed to decrease runoff during large storms. This can be attained by deepening furrows on unsaturated hillsides and reducing the entrainment of unconsolidated sediment from failed gully banks

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. © 2018 The Author(s)

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. © 2018 The Author(s)