Real-time dynamic modelling for the design of a cluster-randomized phase 3 Ebola vaccine trial in Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: Declining incidence and spatial heterogeneity complicated the design of phase 3 Ebola vaccine trials during the tail of the 2013-16 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa. Mathematical models can provide forecasts of expected incidence through time and can account for both vaccine efficacy in participants and effectiveness in populations. Determining expected disease incidence was critical to calculating power and determining trial sample size. METHODS: In real-time, we fitted, forecasted, and simulated a proposed phase 3 cluster-randomized vaccine trial for a prime-boost EVD vaccine in three candidate regions in Sierra Leone. The aim was to forecast trial feasibility in these areas through time and guide study design planning. RESULTS: EVD incidence was highly variable during the epidemic, especially in the declining phase. Delays in trial start date were expected to greatly reduce the ability to discern an effect, particularly as a trial with an effective vaccine would cause the epidemic to go extinct more quickly in the vaccine arm. Real-time updates of the model allowed decision-makers to determine how trial feasibility changed with time. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis was useful for vaccine trial planning because we simulated effectiveness as well as efficacy, which is possible with a dynamic transmission model. It contributed to decisions on choice of trial location and feasibility of the trial. Transmission models should be utilised as early as possible in the design process to provide mechanistic estimates of expected incidence, with which decisions about sample size, location, timing, and feasibility can be determined

Effects of oxytocin on attention to emotional faces in healthy volunteers and highly socially anxious males

Background: Evidence suggests that individuals with social anxiety demonstrate vigilance to social threat, whilst the peptide hormone oxytocin is widely accepted as supporting affiliative behaviour in humans. Methods: This study investigated whether oxytocin can affect attentional bias in social anxiety. In a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, within-group study design, 26 healthy and 16 highly socially anxious (HSA) male volunteers (within the HSA group, 10 were diagnosed with generalized social anxiety disorder) were administered 24 IU of oxytocin or placebo to investigate attentional processing in social anxiety. Attentional bias was assessed using the dot-probe paradigm with angry, fearful, happy and neutral face stimuli. Results: In the baseline placebo condition, the HSA group showed greater attentional bias for emotional faces than healthy individuals. Oxytocin reduced the difference between HSA and non-socially anxious individuals in attentional bias for emotional faces. Moreover, it appeared to normalize attentional bias in HSA individuals to levels seen in the healthy population in the baseline condition. The biological mechanisms by which oxytocin may be exerting these effects are discussed. Conclusions: These results, coupled with previous research, could indicate a potential therapeutic use of this hormone in treatment for social anxiety

Facial expressions depicting compassionate and critical emotions: the development and validation of a new emotional face stimulus set

Attachment with altruistic others requires the ability to appropriately process affiliative and kind facial cues. Yet there is no stimulus set available to investigate such processes. Here, we developed a stimulus set depicting compassionate and critical facial expressions, and validated its effectiveness using well-established visual-probe methodology. In Study 1, 62 participants rated photographs of actors displaying compassionate/kind and critical faces on strength of emotion type. This produced a new stimulus set based on N = 31 actors, whose facial expressions were reliably distinguished as compassionate, critical and neutral. In Study 2, 70 participants completed a visual-probe task measuring attentional orientation to critical and compassionate/kind faces. This revealed that participants lower in self-criticism demonstrated enhanced attention to compassionate/kind faces whereas those higher in self-criticism showed no bias. To sum, the new stimulus set produced interpretable findings using visual-probe methodology and is the first to include higher order, complex positive affect displays

The Impact of Worry on Attention to Threat

Prior research has often linked anxiety to attentional vigilance for threat using the dot probe task, which presents probes in spatial locations that were or were not preceded by a putative threat stimulus. The present study investigated the impact of worry on threat vigilance by administering this task during a worry condition and during a mental arithmetic control condition to 56 undergraduate students scoring in the low normal range on a measure of chronic worry. The worry induction was associated with faster responses than arithmetic to probes in the attended location following threat words, indicating the combined influence of worry and threat in facilitating attention. Within the worry condition, responses to probes in the attended location were faster for trials containing threat words than for trials with only neutral words, whereas the converse pattern was observed for responses to probes in the unattended location. This connection between worry states and attentional capture by threat may be central to understanding the impact of hypervigilance on information processing in anxiety and its disorders

Coral Bleaching and Mortality in the Chagos Archipelago

The atolls and coral banks of the Chagos Archipelago (British Indian Ocean Territory) in the central Indian Ocean were severely affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) thermal event that started in 2015 and which lasted for nearly two years. On these reefs, coral mortality reduced scleractinian coral cover from 40%–50% to <10% and commonly to only about 5% in water less than 15 m depth. The three-dimensional structure of the reefs was significantly reduced as a result, and the prolonged warming almost eliminated soft corals. Most atolls of the archipelago are uninhabited, so any changes are driven by broad environmental changes rather than by direct, local anthropogenic effects. Coral cover was first measured in 1978, temperature loggers have recorded water temperature at various depths for the last 11 years, and the results of the recent warming event are placed in this context. Over this time, cover has declined severely along with a general rise in water temperature of one-third of a degree Celsius on ocean reefs and by more than one-half of a degree Celsius in lagoons. Major fluctuations of coral cover caused by warm episodes have sometimes, but not always, coincided with ENSO events and have occurred on top of the increasing trend in background temperatures. Juvenile coral populations have also recently severely declined following the mortality of the adults. Estimates of calcification suggest a marked reduction, from a state of vigorous reef growth that had not long recovered from the earlier severe warming event of 1998, to a state of net erosion. Predictions suggest that recurrences of mass mortalities will take place too frequently for any significant recovery of reef health in these atolls by the late 2020s

Mindfulness-based interventions for people diagnosed with a current episode of an anxiety or depressive disorder: a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

Objective Mindfulness-based interventions (MBIs) can reduce risk of depressive relapse for people with a history of recurrent depression who are currently well. However, the cognitive, affective and motivational features of depression and anxiety might render MBIs ineffective for people experiencing current symptoms. This paper presents a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of MBIs where participants met diagnostic criteria for a current episode of an anxiety or depressive disorder. Method Post-intervention between-group Hedges g effect sizes were calculated using a random effects model. Moderator analyses of primary diagnosis, intervention type and control condition were conducted and publication bias was assessed. Results Twelve studies met inclusion criteria (n = 578). There were significant post-intervention between-group benefits of MBIs relative to control conditions on primary symptom severity (Hedges g = −0.59, 95% CI = −0.12 to −1.06). Effects were demonstrated for depressive symptom severity (Hedges g = −0.73, 95% CI = −0.09 to −1.36), but not for anxiety symptom severity (Hedges g = −0.55, 95% CI = 0.09 to −1.18), for RCTs with an inactive control (Hedges g = −1.03, 95% CI = −0.40 to −1.66), but not where there was an active control (Hedges g = 0.03, 95% CI = 0.54 to −0.48) and effects were found for MBCT (Hedges g = −0.39, 95% CI = −0.15 to −0.63) but not for MBSR (Hedges g = −0.75, 95% CI = 0.31 to −1.81). Conclusions This is the first meta-analysis of RCTs of MBIs where all studies included only participants who were diagnosed with a current episode of a depressive or anxiety disorder. Effects of MBIs on primary symptom severity were found for people with a current depressive disorder and it is recommended that MBIs might be considered as an intervention for this population

Measurement of the cross-section and charge asymmetry of WW bosons produced in proton-proton collisions at s=8\sqrt{s}=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents measurements of the $W^+ \rightarrow \mu^+\nu$ and $W^- \rightarrow \mu^-\nu$ cross-sections and the associated charge asymmetry as a function of the absolute pseudorapidity of the decay muon. The data were collected in proton--proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC and correspond to a total integrated luminosity of 20.2~\mbox{fb^{-1}}. The precision of the cross-section measurements varies between 0.8% to 1.5% as a function of the pseudorapidity, excluding the 1.9% uncertainty on the integrated luminosity. The charge asymmetry is measured with an uncertainty between 0.002 and 0.003. The results are compared with predictions based on next-to-next-to-leading-order calculations with various parton distribution functions and have the sensitivity to discriminate between them.Comment: 38 pages in total, author list starting page 22, 5 figures, 4 tables, submitted to EPJC. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at https://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/STDM-2017-13

Search for chargino-neutralino production with mass splittings near the electroweak scale in three-lepton final states in √s=13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for supersymmetry through the pair production of electroweakinos with mass splittings near the electroweak scale and decaying via on-shell W and Z bosons is presented for a three-lepton final state. The analyzed proton-proton collision data taken at a center-of-mass energy of √s=13  TeV were collected between 2015 and 2018 by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139  fb−1. A search, emulating the recursive jigsaw reconstruction technique with easily reproducible laboratory-frame variables, is performed. The two excesses observed in the 2015–2016 data recursive jigsaw analysis in the low-mass three-lepton phase space are reproduced. Results with the full data set are in agreement with the Standard Model expectations. They are interpreted to set exclusion limits at the 95% confidence level on simplified models of chargino-neutralino pair production for masses up to 345 GeV

Search for direct stau production in events with two hadronic tau-leptons in root s=13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of the supersymmetric partners ofτ-leptons (staus) in final stateswith two hadronically decayingτ-leptons is presented. The analysis uses a dataset of pp collisions corresponding to an integrated luminosity of139fb−1, recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LargeHadron Collider at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. No significant deviation from the expected StandardModel background is observed. Limits are derived in scenarios of direct production of stau pairs with eachstau decaying into the stable lightest neutralino and oneτ-lepton in simplified models where the two staumass eigenstates are degenerate. Stau masses from 120 GeV to 390 GeV are excluded at 95% confidencelevel for a massless lightest neutralino

End-point definition and trial design to advance tuberculosis vaccine development

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading infectious cause of death worldwide and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has negatively impacted the global TB burden of disease indicators. If the targets of TB mortality and incidence reduction set by the international community are to be met, new more effective adult and adolescent TB vaccines are urgently needed. There are several new vaccine candidates at different stages of clinical development. Given the limited funding for vaccine development, it is crucial that trial designs are as efficient as possible. Prevention of infection (POI) approaches offer an attractive opportunity to accelerate new candidate vaccines to advance into large and expensive prevention of disease (POD) efficacy trials. However, POI approaches are limited by imperfect current tools to measure Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection end-points. POD trials need to carefully consider the type and number of microbiological tests that define TB disease and, if efficacy against subclinical (asymptomatic) TB disease is to be tested, POD trials need to explore how best to define and measure this form of TB. Prevention of recurrence trials are an alternative approach to generate proof of concept for efficacy, but optimal timing of vaccination relative to treatment must still be explored. Novel and efficient approaches to efficacy trial design, in addition to an increasing number of candidates entering phase 2-3 trials, would accelerate the long-standing quest for a new TB vaccine