Prediction of outcome after paraquat poisoning by measurement of the plasma paraquat concentration

Background: Paraquat is a herbicide with a good occupational safety record, but a high mortality after intentional ingestion that has proved refractory to treatment. For nearly three decades paraquat concentration-time data have been used to predict the outcome following ingestion. However, none of the published methods has been independently or prospectively validated. We aimed to use prospectively collected data to test the published predictive methods and to determine if any is superior. Methods: Plasma paraquat concentrations were measured on admission for 451 patients in 10 hospitals in Sri Lanka as part of large prospective cohort study. All deaths in hospital were recorded; patients surviving to hospital discharge were followed up after 3 months to detect delayed deaths. Five prediction methods that are based on paraquat concentration-time data were then evaluated in all eligible patients. Results: All methods showed comparable performance within their range of application. For example, between 4- and 24-h prediction of prognosis was most variable between Sawada and Proudfoot methods but these differences were relatively small [specificity 0.96 (95% CI: 0.90-0.99) vs. 0.89 (0.82-0.95); sensitivity 0.57 vs. 0.79, positive and negative likelihood ratios 14.8 vs. 7.40 and 0.44 vs. 0.23 and positive predictive values 0.96 vs. 0.92, respectively]. Conclusions: All five published methods were better at predicting death than survival. These predictions may also serve as tools to identify patients who need treatment and for some assessment to be made of new treatments that are trialled without a control grou

Prediction of outcome after paraquat poisoning by measurement of the plasma paraquat concentration

Background: Paraquat is a herbicide with a good occupational safety record, but a high mortality after intentional ingestion that has proved refractory to treatment. For nearly three decades paraquat concentration–time data have been used to predict the outcome following ingestion. However, none of the published methods has been independently or prospectively validated. We aimed to use prospectively collected data to test the published predictive methods and to determine if any is superior

Transitions of cardio-metabolic risk factors in the Americas between 1980 and 2014

Describing the prevalence and trends of cardiometabolic risk factors that are associated with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is crucial for monitoring progress, planning prevention, and providing evidence to support policy efforts. We aimed to analyse the transition in body-mass index (BMI), obesity, blood pressure, raised blood pressure, and diabetes in the Americas, between 1980 and 2014

Search for resonances in the mass distribution of jet pairs with one or two jets identified as b-jets in proton–proton collisions at √s=13TeV with the ATLAS detector

Searches for high-mass resonances in the dijet invariant mass spectrum with one or two jets identi-fied as b-jets are performed using an integrated luminosity of 3.2fb−1of proton–proton collisions with a centre-of-mass energy of √s=13TeVrecorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Noevidence of anomalous phenomena is observed in the data, which are used to exclude, at 95%credibility level, excited b∗quarks with masses from 1.1TeVto 2.1TeVand leptophobic Z bosons with masses from 1.1TeVto 1.5TeV. Contributions of a Gaussian signal shape with effective cross sections ranging from approximately 0.4 to 0.001pb are also excluded in the mass range 1.5–5.0TeV

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.</p

A century of trends in adult human height

Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5-22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3-19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8-144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities 1,2 . This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity 3�6 . Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55 of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017�and more than 80 in some low- and middle-income regions�was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing�and in some countries reversal�of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories. © 2019, The Author(s)