Climate Alters the Migration Phenology of Coastal Marine Species

Significant shifts in the phenology of life-cycle events have been observed in diverse taxa throughout the global oceans. While the migration phenology of marine fish and invertebrates is expected to be sensitive to climate change, the complex nature of these patterns has made measurement difficult and studies rare. With continuous weekly observations spanning 7 decades in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island (USA), the University of Rhode Island Graduate School of Oceanography trawl survey provides an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the influence of climate on the migrations of marine species in the northwest Atlantic. Analyses of the survey observations of 12 species indicated that residence periods have changed by as much as 118 d, with shifts in the timing of both ingress to and egress from the coastal zone. The residence periods of warm-water species expanded while those of cold-water species contracted. Dirichlet regressions fit to the annual presence-absence patterns of each species identified interannual temperature variations, fluctuations in ocean circulation, and long-term warming all as having a significant effect on migration phenology. Additionally, temperature gradients within Narragansett Bay were shown by generalized additive models to cause detectable shifts in local spatial distributions during coastal residency. These novel findings mirror results found in the spatial domain and therefore suggest that the studied species are adapting their spatiotemporal distributions to track their thermal niche in a changing climate. If so, characterizing the spatial and temporal aspects of climate responses across species will be critical to understanding ongoing changes in marine ecosystems and successfully managing the fisheries they support

Evaluating Summer Flounder Spatial Sex-Segregation in a Southern New England Estuary

Marine fish species can exhibit sex-specific differences in their biological traits. Not accounting for these characteristics in the stock assessment or management of a species can lead to misunderstanding its population dynamics and result in ineffective regulatory strategies. Summer Flounder Paralichthys dentatus, a flatfish that supports significant commercial and recreational fisheries along the northeastern U.S. shelf, expresses variation in several traits between the sexes, including growth and habitat preference. To further understand these patterns, 1,302 Summer Flounder were collected and sexed in 2016 and 2017 from fisheries-independent surveys conducted in Rhode Island state waters. Female flounder were more prevalent in shallow waters (15 m) from May through September. The probability of a collected flounder being female was evaluated with generalized linear models and covariates representing depth, temperature, month, year, and TL. Summer Flounder were more likely to be female at larger sizes, in shallower waters, and late in the season. When compared with landings data in the recreational fishery over the sampling period, the results suggest that nearly all flounder harvested in the sector were female. This work provides further evidence for and characterization of Summer Flounder sex-segregation and highlights, for management purposes, the importance of considering fine-scale spatial dynamics in addition to broader distribution patterns. The fitted model represents an effective first step toward understanding the implications of an aggregated fishing effort for disproportionate removals of male or female flounder and for exploring resulting consequences for regional spawning stock biomass and stock resiliency

Multimorbidity in bipolar disorder and under-treatment of cardiovascular disease: a cross sectional study

Background: Individuals with serious mental disorders experience poor physical health, especially increased rates of cardiometabolic morbidity and premature morbidity. Recent evidence suggests that individuals with schizophrenia have numerous comorbid physical conditions which may be under-recorded and under-treated but to date very few studies have explored this issue for bipolar disorder. Methods:We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of a dataset of 1,751,841 registered patients within 314 primary-care practices in Scotland, U.K. Bipolar disorder was identified using Read Codes recorded within electronic medical records. Data on 32 common chronic physical conditions were also assessed. Potential prescribing inequalities were evaluated by analyzing prescribing data for coronary heart disease (CHD) and hypertension. Results: Compared to controls, individuals with bipolar disorder were significantly less likely to have no recorded physical conditions (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.54-0.63) and significantly more likely to have one physical condition (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.16-1.39), two physical conditions (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.30-1.62) and three or more physical conditions (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.30-1.64). People with bipolar disorder also had higher rates of thyroid disorders, chronic kidney disease, chronic pain, chronic obstructive airways disease and diabetes but, surprisingly, lower recorded rates of hypertension and atrial fibrillation. People with bipolar disorder and comorbid CHD or hypertension were significantly more likely to be prescribed no antihypertensive or cholesterol-lowering medications compared to controls, and bipolar individuals with CHD or hypertension were significantly less likely to be on 2 or more antihypertensive agents. Conclusions: Individuals with bipolar disorder are similar to individuals with schizophrenia in having a wide range of comorbid and multiple physical health conditions. They are also less likely than controls to have a primary-care record of cardiovascular conditions such as hypertension and atrial fibrillation. Those with a recorded diagnosis of CHD or hypertension were less likely to be treated with cardiovascular medications and were treated less intensively. This study highlights the high physical healthcare needs of people with bipolar disorder, and provides evidence for a systematic under-recognition and under-treatment of cardiovascular disease in this group

How does climate change affect emergent properties of aquatic ecosystems?

Emergent properties of ecosystems are community attributes, such as structure and function, that arise from connections and interactions (e.g., predator–prey, competition) among populations, species, or assemblages that, when viewed together, provide a holistic representation that is more than the sum of its individual parts. Climate change is altering emergent properties of aquatic ecosystems through component responses, a combination of shifts in species range, phenology, distribution, and productivity, which lead to novel ecosystems that have no historical analog. The reshuffling, restructuring, and rewiring of aquatic ecosystems due to climate impacts are of high concern for natural resource management and conservation as these changes can lead to species extinctions and reductions in ecosystem services. Overall, we found that substantial progress has been made to advance our understanding of how climate change is affecting emergent properties of aquatic ecosystems. However, responses are incredibly complex, and high uncertainty remains for how systems will reorganize and function over the coming decades. This cross-system perspective summarizes the state of knowledge of climate-driven emergent properties in aquatic habitats with case studies that highlight mechanisms of change, observed or anticipated outcomes, as well as insights into confounding non-climate effects, research tools, and management approaches to advance the field

A Review of Pink Salmon in the Pacific, Arctic, and Atlantic Oceans

The Northern Hemisphere Pink Salmon Expert Group Meeting was held on October 2–3, 2022 in Vancouver, Canada, immediately preceding the International Year of the Salmon (IYS) Synthesis Symposium. The rapid expansion of pink salmon was the theme for the meeting, and experts came together to discuss the current state of knowledge for pink salmon. Specific topics of focus included the range expansion into the Atlantic and Arctic oceans, trends in distribution and abundance, research and monitoring approaches, potential inter-specific interactions, mitigation efforts, and plans for future collaborations. The outcomes of the meeting were presented at the IYS Synthesis Symposium and are further disseminated through this NPAFC Technical Report. The Executive Summary section of this report provides a brief background, a condensed overview of each topic, and concludes with overarching takeaway messages that are intended to guide future collaborations.publishedVersio

A Review of Pink Salmon in the Pacific, Arctic, and Atlantic Oceans

The Northern Hemisphere Pink Salmon Expert Group Meeting was held on October 2–3, 2022 in Vancouver, Canada, immediately preceding the International Year of the Salmon (IYS) Synthesis Symposium. The rapid expansion of pink salmon was the theme for the meeting, and experts came together to discuss the current state of knowledge for pink salmon. Specific topics of focus included the range expansion into the Atlantic and Arctic oceans, trends in distribution and abundance, research and monitoring approaches, potential inter-specific interactions, mitigation efforts, and plans for future collaborations. The outcomes of the meeting were presented at the IYS Synthesis Symposium and are further disseminated through this NPAFC Technical Report. The Executive Summary section of this report provides a brief background, a condensed overview of each topic, and concludes with overarching takeaway messages that are intended to guide future collaborations.publishedVersio

COVID-19 collateral: Indirect acute effects of the pandemic on physical and mental health in the UK

ABSTRACTBackgroundConcerns have been raised that the response to the UK COVID-19 pandemic may have worsened physical and mental health, and reduced use of health services. However, the scale of the problem is unquantified, impeding development of effective mitigations. We asked what has happened to general practice contacts for acute physical and mental health outcomes during the pandemic?MethodsUsing electronic health records from the Clinical Research Practice Datalink (CPRD) Aurum (2017-2020), we calculated weekly primary care contacts for selected acute physical and mental health conditions (including: anxiety, depression, acute alcohol-related events, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] exacerbations, cardiovascular and diabetic emergencies). We used interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to formally quantify changes in conditions after the introduction of population-wide restrictions (‘lockdown’) compared to the period prior to their introduction in March 2020.FindingsThe overall population included 9,863,903 individuals on 1st January 2017. Primary care contacts for all conditions dropped dramatically after introduction of population-wide restrictions. By July 2020, except for unstable angina and acute alcohol-related events, contacts for all conditions had not recovered to pre-lockdown levels. The largest reductions were for contacts for: diabetic emergencies (OR: 0.35, 95% CI: 0.25-0.50), depression (OR: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.52-0.53), and self-harm (OR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.54-0.58).InterpretationThere were substantial reductions in primary care contacts for acute physical and mental conditions with restrictions, with limited recovery by July 2020. It is likely that much of the deficit in care represents unmet need, with implications for subsequent morbidity and premature mortality. The conditions we studied are sufficiently severe that any unmet need will have substantial ramifications for the people experiencing the conditions and healthcare provision. Maintaining access must be a key priority in future public health planning (including further restrictions).FundingWellcome Trust Senior Fellowship (SML), Health Data Research UK.RESULTS IN CONTEXTEvidence before this studyA small study in 47 GP practices in a largely deprived, urban area of the UK (Salford) reported that primary care consultations for four broad diagnostic groups (circulatory disease, common mental health problems, type 2 diabetes mellitus and malignant cancer) declined by 16-50% between March and May 2020, compared to what was expected based on data from January 2010 to March 2020. We searched Medline for other relevant evidence of the indirect effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on physical and mental health from inception to September 25th 2020, for articles published in English, with titles including the search terms (“covid*” or “coronavirus” or “sars-cov-2”), and title or abstracts including the search terms (“indirect impact” or “missed diagnos*” or “missing diagnos*” or “delayed diagnos*” or ((“present*” or “consult*” or “engag*” or “access*”) AND (“reduction” or “decrease” or “decline”)). We found no further studies investigating the change in primary care contacts for specific physical- and mental-health conditions indirectly resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic or its control measures. There has been a reduction in hospital admissions and presentations to accident and emergency departments in the UK, particularly for myocardial infarctions and cerebrovascular accidents. However, there is no published evidence specifically investigating the changes in primary care contacts for severe acute physical and mental health conditions.Added value of this studyTo our knowledge this is the first study to explore changes in healthcare contacts for acute physical and mental health conditions in a large population representative of the UK. We used electronic primary care health records of nearly 10 million individuals across the UK to investigate the indirect impact of COVID-19 on primary care contacts for mental health, acute alcohol-related events, asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations, and cardiovascular and diabetic emergencies up to July 2020. For all conditions studied, we found primary care contacts dropped dramatically following the introduction of population-wide restriction measures in March 2020. By July 2020, with the exception of unstable angina and acute alcohol-related events, primary care contacts for all conditions studied had not recovered to pre-lockdown levels. In the general population, estimates of the absolute reduction in the number of primary care contacts up to July 2020, compared to what we would expect from previous years varied from fewer than 10 contacts per million for some cardiovascular outcomes, to 12,800 per million for depression and 6,600 for anxiety. In people with COPD, we estimated there were 43,900 per million fewer contacts for COPD exacerbations up to July 2020 than what we would expect from previous years.Implicatins of all the available evidenceWhile our results may represent some genuine reduction in disease frequency (e.g. the restriction measures may have improved diabetic glycaemic control due to more regular daily routines at home), it is more likely the reduced primary care conatcts we saw represent a substantial burden of unmet need (particularly for mental health conditions) that may be reflected in subsequent increased mortality and morbidity. Health service providers should take steps to prepare for increased demand in the coming months and years due to the short and longterm ramifications of reduced access to care for severe acute physical and mental health conditions. Maintaining access to primary care is key to future public health planning in relation to the pandemic.</jats:sec

The Semantic Reader Project: Augmenting Scholarly Documents through AI-Powered Interactive Reading Interfaces

Scholarly publications are key to the transfer of knowledge from scholars to others. However, research papers are information-dense, and as the volume of the scientific literature grows, the need for new technology to support the reading process grows. In contrast to the process of finding papers, which has been transformed by Internet technology, the experience of reading research papers has changed little in decades. The PDF format for sharing research papers is widely used due to its portability, but it has significant downsides including: static content, poor accessibility for low-vision readers, and difficulty reading on mobile devices. This paper explores the question "Can recent advances in AI and HCI power intelligent, interactive, and accessible reading interfaces -- even for legacy PDFs?" We describe the Semantic Reader Project, a collaborative effort across multiple institutions to explore automatic creation of dynamic reading interfaces for research papers. Through this project, we've developed ten research prototype interfaces and conducted usability studies with more than 300 participants and real-world users showing improved reading experiences for scholars. We've also released a production reading interface for research papers that will incorporate the best features as they mature. We structure this paper around challenges scholars and the public face when reading research papers -- Discovery, Efficiency, Comprehension, Synthesis, and Accessibility -- and present an overview of our progress and remaining open challenges

Indirect acute effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on physical and mental health in the UK: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: There are concerns that the response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK might have worsened physical and mental health, and reduced use of health services. However, the scale of the problem is unquantified, impeding development of effective mitigations. We aimed to ascertain what has happened to general practice contacts for acute physical and mental health outcomes during the pandemic. METHODS: Using de-identified electronic health records from the Clinical Research Practice Datalink (CPRD) Aurum (covering 13% of the UK population), between 2017 and 2020, we calculated weekly primary care contacts for selected acute physical and mental health conditions: anxiety, depression, self-harm (fatal and non-fatal), severe mental illness, eating disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, acute alcohol-related events, asthma exacerbation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation, acute cardiovascular events (cerebrovascular accident, heart failure, myocardial infarction, transient ischaemic attacks, unstable angina, and venous thromboembolism), and diabetic emergency. Primary care contacts included remote and face-to-face consultations, diagnoses from hospital discharge letters, and secondary care referrals, and conditions were identified through primary care records for diagnoses, symptoms, and prescribing. Our overall study population included individuals aged 11 years or older who had at least 1 year of registration with practices contributing to CPRD Aurum in the specified period, but denominator populations varied depending on the condition being analysed. We used an interrupted time-series analysis to formally quantify changes in conditions after the introduction of population-wide restrictions (defined as March 29, 2020) compared with the period before their introduction (defined as Jan 1, 2017 to March 7, 2020), with data excluded for an adjustment-to-restrictions period (March 8-28). FINDINGS: The overall population included 9 863 903 individuals on Jan 1, 2017, and increased to 10 226 939 by Jan 1, 2020. Primary care contacts for almost all conditions dropped considerably after the introduction of population-wide restrictions. The largest reductions were observed for contacts for diabetic emergencies (odds ratio 0·35 [95% CI 0·25-0·50]), depression (0·53 [0·52-0·53]), and self-harm (0·56 [0·54-0·58]). In the interrupted time-series analysis, with the exception of acute alcohol-related events (0·98 [0·89-1·10]), there was evidence of a reduction in contacts for all conditions (anxiety 0·67 [0·66-0·67], eating disorders 0·62 [0·59-0·66], obsessive-compulsive disorder [0·69 [0·64-0·74]], self-harm 0·56 [0·54-0·58], severe mental illness 0·80 [0·78-0·83], stroke 0·59 [0·56-0·62], transient ischaemic attack 0·63 [0·58-0·67], heart failure 0·62 [0·60-0·64], myocardial infarction 0·72 [0·68-0·77], unstable angina 0·72 [0·60-0·87], venous thromboembolism 0·94 [0·90-0·99], and asthma exacerbation 0·88 [0·86-0·90]). By July, 2020, except for unstable angina and acute alcohol-related events, contacts for all conditions had not recovered to pre-lockdown levels. INTERPRETATION: There were substantial reductions in primary care contacts for acute physical and mental conditions following the introduction of restrictions, with limited recovery by July, 2020. Further research is needed to ascertain whether these reductions reflect changes in disease frequency or missed opportunities for care. Maintaining health-care access should be a key priority in future public health planning, including further restrictions. The conditions we studied are sufficiently severe that any unmet need will have substantial ramifications for the people with the conditions as well as health-care provision. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust Senior Fellowship, Health Data Research UK

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2)