An open reproducible framework for the study of the iterated prisoner's dilemma

The Axelrod library is an open source Python package that allows for reproducible game theoretic research into the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. This area of research began in the 1980s but suffers from a lack of documentation and test code. The goal of the library is to provide such a resource, with facilities for the design of new strategies and interactions between them, as well as conducting tournaments and ecological simulations for populations of strategies. With a growing collection of 139 strategies, the library is a also a platform for an original tournament that, in itself, is of interest to the game theoretic community. This paper describes the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, the Axelrod library and its development, and insights gained from some novel research.Comment: 11 pages, Journal of Open Research Software 4.1 (2016

Comparison of three methods for ascertainment of contact information relevant to respiratory pathogen transmission in encounter networks

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mathematical models of infection that consider targeted interventions are exquisitely dependent on the assumed mixing patterns of the population. We report on a pilot study designed to assess three different methods (one retrospective, two prospective) for obtaining contact data relevant to the determination of these mixing patterns.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>65 adults were asked to record their social encounters in each location visited during 6 study days using a novel method whereby a change in physical location of the study participant triggered data entry. Using a cross-over design, all participants recorded encounters on 3 days in a paper diary and 3 days using an electronic recording device (PDA). Participants were randomised to first prospective recording method.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both methods captured more contacts than a pre-study questionnaire, but ascertainment using the paper diary was superior to the PDA (mean difference: 4.52 (95% CI 0.28, 8.77). Paper diaries were found more acceptable to the participants compared with the PDA. Statistical analysis confirms that our results are broadly consistent with those reported from large-scale European based surveys. An association between household size (trend 0.14, 95% CI (0.06, 0.22), <it>P </it>< 0.001) and composition (presence of child 0.37, 95% CI (0.17, 0.56), <it>P </it>< 0.001) and the total number of reported contacts was observed, highlighting the importance of sampling study populations based on household characteristics as well as age. New contacts were still being recorded on the third study day, but compliance had declined, indicating that the optimal number of sample days represents a trade-off between completeness and quality of data for an individual.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The study's location-based reporting design allows greater scope compared to other methods for examining differences in the characteristics of encounters over a range of environments. Improved parameterisation of dynamic transmission models gained from work of this type will aid in the development of more robust decision support tools to assist health policy makers and planners.</p

Influence of Contact Definitions in Assessment of the Relative Importance of Social Settings in Disease Transmission Risk

BACKGROUND: Realistic models of disease transmission incorporating complex population heterogeneities require input from quantitative population mixing studies. We use contact diaries to assess the relative importance of social settings in respiratory pathogen spread using three measures of person contact hours (PCH) as proxies for transmission risk with an aim to inform bipartite network models of respiratory pathogen transmission. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Our survey examines the contact behaviour for a convenience sample of 65 adults, with each encounter classified as occurring in a work, retail, home, social, travel or "other" setting. The diary design allows for extraction of PCH-interaction (cumulative time in face-face conversational or touch interaction with contacts)--analogous to the contact measure used in several existing surveys--as well as PCH-setting (product of time spent in setting and number of people present) and PCH-reach (product of time spent in setting and number of people in close proximity). Heterogeneities in day-dependent distribution of risk across settings are analysed using partitioning and cluster analyses and compared between days and contact measures. Although home is typically the highest-risk setting when PCH measures isolate two-way interactions, its relative importance compared to social and work settings may reduce when adopting a more inclusive contact measure that considers the number and duration of potential exposure events. CONCLUSIONS: Heterogeneities in location-dependent contact behaviour as measured by contact diary studies depend on the adopted contact definition. We find that contact measures isolating face-face conversational or touch interactions suggest that contact in the home dominates, whereas more inclusive contact measures indicate that home and work settings may be of higher importance. In the absence of definitive knowledge of the contact required to facilitate transmission of various respiratory pathogens, it is important for surveys to consider alternative contact measures

Work factors and psychological distress in nurses' aides: a prospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Nurses' aides (assistant nurses), the main providers of practical patient care in many countries, are doing both emotional and heavy physical work, and are exposed to frequent social encounters in their job. There is scarce knowledge, though, of how working conditions are related to psychological distress in this occupational group. The aim of this study was to identify work factors that predict the level of psychological distress in nurses' aides.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The sample of this prospective study comprised 5076 Norwegian nurses' aides, not on leave when they completed a mailed questionnaire in 1999. Of these, 4076 (80.3 %) completed a second questionnaire 15 months later. A wide spectrum of physical, psychological, social, and organisational work factors were measured at baseline. Psychological distress (anxiety and depression) was assessed at baseline and follow-up by the SCL-5, a short version of Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In a linear regression model of the level of psychological distress at follow-up, with baseline level of psychological distress, work factors, and background factors as independent variables, work factors explained 2 % and baseline psychological distress explained 34 % of the variance. Exposures to role conflicts, exposures to threats and violence, working in apartment units for the aged, and changes in the work situation between baseline and follow-up that were reported to result in less support and encouragement were positively associated with the level of psychological distress. Working in psychiatric departments, and changes in the work situation between baseline and follow-up that gave lower work pace were negatively associated with psychological distress.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The study suggests that work factors explain only a modest part of the psychological distress in nurses' aides. Exposures to role conflicts and threats and violence at work may contribute to psychological distress in nurses' aides. It is important that protective measures against violent patients are implemented, and that occupational health officers offer victims of violence appropriate support or therapy. It is also important that health service organisations focus on reducing role conflicts, and that leaders listen to and consider the views of the staff.</p

Response rates and selection problems, with emphasis on mental health variables and DNA sampling, in large population-based, cross-sectional and longitudinal studies of adolescents in Norway

Background Selection bias is a threat to the internal validity of epidemiological studies. In light of a growing number of studies which aim to provide DNA, as well as a considerable number of invitees who declined to participate, we discuss response rates, predictors of lost to follow-up and failure to provide DNA, and the presence of possible selection bias, based on five samples of adolescents. Methods We included nearly 7,000 adolescents from two longitudinal studies of 18/19 year olds with two corresponding cross-sectional baseline studies at age 15/16 (10th graders), and one cross-sectional study of 13th graders (18/19 years old). DNA was sampled from the cheek mucosa of 18/19 year olds. Predictors of lost to follow-up and failure to provide DNA were studied by Poisson regression. Selection bias in the follow-up at age 18/19 was estimated through investigation of prevalence ratios (PRs) between selected exposures (physical activity, smoking) and outcome variables (general health, mental distress, externalizing problems) measured at baseline. Results Out of 5,750 who participated at age 15/16, we lost 42% at follow-up at age 18/19. The percentage of participants who gave their consent to DNA provision was as high as the percentage that consented to a linkage of data with other health registers and surveys, approximately 90%. Significant predictors of lost to follow-up and failure to provide DNA samples in the present genetic epidemiological study were: male gender; non-western ethnicity; postal survey compared with school-based; low educational plans; low education and income of father; low perceived family economy; unmarried parents; poor self-reported health; externalized symptoms and smoking, with some differences in subgroups of ethnicity and gender. The association measures (PRs) were quite similar among participants and all invitees, with some minor discrepancies in subgroups of non-western boys and girls. Conclusions Lost to follow-up had marginal impact on the estimated prevalence ratios. It is not likely that the invitation to provide DNA influenced the response rates of 18/19 year olds. Non-western ethnicity, male gender and characteristics related to a low social class and general and mental health problems measured at baseline are associated with lost to follow-up and failure to provide DNA

c-di-AMP Is a New Second Messenger in Staphylococcus aureus with a Role in Controlling Cell Size and Envelope Stress.

Published versio

Adjunctive rifampicin for Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (ARREST): a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia is a common cause of severe community-acquired and hospital-acquired infection worldwide. We tested the hypothesis that adjunctive rifampicin would reduce bacteriologically confirmed treatment failure or disease recurrence, or death, by enhancing early S aureus killing, sterilising infected foci and blood faster, and reducing risks of dissemination and metastatic infection. METHODS: In this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, adults (≥18 years) with S aureus bacteraemia who had received ≤96 h of active antibiotic therapy were recruited from 29 UK hospitals. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) via a computer-generated sequential randomisation list to receive 2 weeks of adjunctive rifampicin (600 mg or 900 mg per day according to weight, oral or intravenous) versus identical placebo, together with standard antibiotic therapy. Randomisation was stratified by centre. Patients, investigators, and those caring for the patients were masked to group allocation. The primary outcome was time to bacteriologically confirmed treatment failure or disease recurrence, or death (all-cause), from randomisation to 12 weeks, adjudicated by an independent review committee masked to the treatment. Analysis was intention to treat. This trial was registered, number ISRCTN37666216, and is closed to new participants. FINDINGS: Between Dec 10, 2012, and Oct 25, 2016, 758 eligible participants were randomly assigned: 370 to rifampicin and 388 to placebo. 485 (64%) participants had community-acquired S aureus infections, and 132 (17%) had nosocomial S aureus infections. 47 (6%) had meticillin-resistant infections. 301 (40%) participants had an initial deep infection focus. Standard antibiotics were given for 29 (IQR 18-45) days; 619 (82%) participants received flucloxacillin. By week 12, 62 (17%) of participants who received rifampicin versus 71 (18%) who received placebo experienced treatment failure or disease recurrence, or died (absolute risk difference -1·4%, 95% CI -7·0 to 4·3; hazard ratio 0·96, 0·68-1·35, p=0·81). From randomisation to 12 weeks, no evidence of differences in serious (p=0·17) or grade 3-4 (p=0·36) adverse events were observed; however, 63 (17%) participants in the rifampicin group versus 39 (10%) in the placebo group had antibiotic or trial drug-modifying adverse events (p=0·004), and 24 (6%) versus six (2%) had drug interactions (p=0·0005). INTERPRETATION: Adjunctive rifampicin provided no overall benefit over standard antibiotic therapy in adults with S aureus bacteraemia. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms

Genome-wide association identifies nine common variants associated with fasting proinsulin levels and provides new insights into the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Proinsulin is a precursor of mature insulin and C-peptide. Higher circulating proinsulin levels are associated with impaired β-cell function, raised glucose levels, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Studies of the insulin processing pathway could provide new insights about T2D pathophysiology. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We have conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association tests of ∼2.5 million genotyped or imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and fasting proinsulin levels in 10,701 nondiabetic adults of European ancestry, with follow-up of 23 loci in up to 16,378 individuals, using additive genetic models adjusted for age, sex, fasting insulin, and study-specific covariates. RESULTS: Nine SNPs at eight loci were associated with proinsulin levels (P < 5 × 10(-8)). Two loci (LARP6 and SGSM2) have not been previously related to metabolic traits, one (MADD) has been associated with fasting glucose, one (PCSK1) has been implicated in obesity, and four (TCF7L2, SLC30A8, VPS13C/C2CD4A/B, and ARAP1, formerly CENTD2) increase T2D risk. The proinsulin-raising allele of ARAP1 was associated with a lower fasting glucose (P = 1.7 × 10(-4)), improved β-cell function (P = 1.1 × 10(-5)), and lower risk of T2D (odds ratio 0.88; P = 7.8 × 10(-6)). Notably, PCSK1 encodes the protein prohormone convertase 1/3, the first enzyme in the insulin processing pathway. A genotype score composed of the nine proinsulin-raising alleles was not associated with coronary disease in two large case-control datasets. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified nine genetic variants associated with fasting proinsulin. Our findings illuminate the biology underlying glucose homeostasis and T2D development in humans and argue against a direct role of proinsulin in coronary artery disease pathogenesis