The Future Energy and GHG Emissions Impact of Alternative Personal Transportation Pathways in China

A major uncertainty in future energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections for China is the evolution of demand for personal transportation modes. This paper explores the implications of divergent personal transportation scenarios, either favoring private vehicles, or emphasizing a sector including all purchased transport (including local public transit, rail and aviation) as substitute for vehicle travel. Motivated by a wide range of forecasts for transport indicators in the literature, we construct plausible scenarios with low-, medium- and high-transport demand growth, and implement them in a technology-rich model which represents opportunities for fuel economy improvement and switching to plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs). The analysis compares primary energy use and GHG emissions in China in the absence and presence of climate policies. We find that a policy that extends the current Chinese emissions-intensity goals through 2050 mostly affects other sectors with lower abatement costs, and so only lightly engages household transport, permitting nearly the same large increases in refined oil demand (by more than five times) and private vehicle stocks (to 430–500 million) as in the reference case. A stringent climate stabilization policy affects household transport, limiting vehicle ownership and petroleum demand, but drives up the share of household spending on transport, and carries high economy-wide costs. The large projected scale of vehicle fleets, refined oil use and transport purchases all suggest that the rate and type of travel demand growth deserves attention by policymakers, as China seeks to address its energy, environmental, and economic goals

The Impact of Coordinated Policies on Air Pollution Emissions from Road Transportation in China

Improving air quality across mainland China is an urgent policy challenge. While much of the problem is linked to China’s broader reliance on coal and other fossil fuels across the energy system, road transportation is an important and growing source of air pollution. Here we use an energy-economic model, embedded in the broader Regional Emissions Air Quality Climate and Health (REACH) modeling framework, to analyze the impacts of implementing vehicle emissions together with a broader economy-wide climate policy on total air pollution and its spatial distribution. We find that full and immediate implementation of existing vehicle emissions standards at China 3/III level or tighter will significantly reduce the contribution of transportation to degraded air quality by 2030. We further show that transportation emissions standards function as an important complement to an economy-wide price on CO2, which delivers significant co-benefits for air pollution reduction that are concentrated primarily in non-transportation sectors. Going forward, vehicle emissions standards and an economy-wide carbon price form a highly effective coordinated policy package that supports China’s air quality and climate change mitigation goals.Research Partners: Emory University, Tsinghua University, and Massachusetts Institute of Technology. This research builds on the work of the MIT-Tsinghua China Energy and Climate Project. The China Energy and Climate Project (CECP) involves close collaboration and personnel exchange between the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change and the Institute for Energy, Environment and Economy at Tsinghua University

MESSAGEix-Materials v1.0.0: Representation of Material Flows and Stocks in an Integrated Assessment Model

Extracting and processing raw materials into products in industry is a substantial source of CO2 emissions, which currently lacks process detail in many integrated assessment models (IAMs). To broaden the space of climate change mitigation options and to include circular economy and material efficiency measures in IAM scenario analysis, we developed MESSAGEix-Materials module representing material flows and stocks within the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM IAM framework. With the development of MESSAGEix-Materials, we provide a fully open-source model that can assess different industry decarbonization options under various climate targets for the most energy and emissions-intensive industries: Aluminium, iron and steel, cement, and petrochemicals. We illustrate the model’s operation with a baseline and mitigation (2 degrees) scenario setup and validate base year results for 2020 against historical datasets. We also discuss the industry decarbonization pathways and material stocks of the electricity generation technologies resulting from the new model features

Observing Supermassive Black Holes across cosmic time: from phenomenology to physics

In the last decade, a combination of high sensitivity, high spatial resolution observations and of coordinated multi-wavelength surveys has revolutionized our view of extra-galactic black hole (BH) astrophysics. We now know that supermassive black holes reside in the nuclei of almost every galaxy, grow over cosmological times by accreting matter, interact and merge with each other, and in the process liberate enormous amounts of energy that influence dramatically the evolution of the surrounding gas and stars, providing a powerful self-regulatory mechanism for galaxy formation. The different energetic phenomena associated to growing black holes and Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN), their cosmological evolution and the observational techniques used to unveil them, are the subject of this chapter. In particular, I will focus my attention on the connection between the theory of high-energy astrophysical processes giving rise to the observed emission in AGN, the observable imprints they leave at different wavelengths, and the methods used to uncover them in a statistically robust way. I will show how such a combined effort of theorists and observers have led us to unveil most of the SMBH growth over a large fraction of the age of the Universe, but that nagging uncertainties remain, preventing us from fully understating the exact role of black holes in the complex process of galaxy and large-scale structure formation, assembly and evolution.Comment: 46 pages, 21 figures. This review article appears as a chapter in the book: "Astrophysical Black Holes", Haardt, F., Gorini, V., Moschella, U and Treves A. (Eds), 2015, Springer International Publishing AG, Cha

MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM nexus module: integrating water sector and climate impacts

The integrated assessment model (IAM) MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM developed by IIASA is widely used to analyze global change and socioeconomic development scenarios within energy and land systems across different scales. However, to date, the representation of impacts from climate effects and water systems in the IAM has been limited. We present a new nexus module for MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM that improves the representation of climate impacts and enables the analysis of interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land, and water resources in a dynamic system. The module uses a spatially resolved representation of water systems to retain hydrological information without compromising computational feasibility. It maps simplified water availability and key infrastructure assumptions with the energy and land systems. The results of this study inform on the transformation pathways required under climate change impacts and mitigation scenarios. The pathways include multi-sectoral indicators highlighting the importance of water as a constraint in energy and land-use decisions and the implications of global responses to limited water availability from different sources, suggesting possible shifts in the energy and land sectors

Relativistic Laser-Matter Interaction and Relativistic Laboratory Astrophysics

The paper is devoted to the prospects of using the laser radiation interaction with plasmas in the laboratory relativistic astrophysics context. We discuss the dimensionless parameters characterizing the processes in the laser and astrophysical plasmas and emphasize a similarity between the laser and astrophysical plasmas in the ultrarelativistic energy limit. In particular, we address basic mechanisms of the charged particle acceleration, the collisionless shock wave and magnetic reconnection and vortex dynamics properties relevant to the problem of ultrarelativistic particle acceleration.Comment: 58 pages, 19 figure

Measurement of event-shape observables in Z→ℓ+ℓ− events in pp collisions at √ s=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

Event-shape observables measured using charged particles in inclusive $Z$-boson events are presented, using the electron and muon decay modes of the $Z$ bosons. The measurements are based on an integrated luminosity of $1.1 {\rm fb}^{-1}$ of proton--proton collisions recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s}=7$ TeV. Charged-particle distributions, excluding the lepton--antilepton pair from the $Z$-boson decay, are measured in different ranges of transverse momentum of the $Z$ boson. Distributions include multiplicity, scalar sum of transverse momenta, beam thrust, transverse thrust, spherocity, and $\mathcal{F}$-parameter, which are in particular sensitive to properties of the underlying event at small values of the $Z$-boson transverse momentum. The Sherpa event generator shows larger deviations from the measured observables than Pythia8 and Herwig7. Typically, all three Monte Carlo generators provide predictions that are in better agreement with the data at high $Z$-boson transverse momenta than at low $Z$-boson transverse momenta and for the observables that are less sensitive to the number of charged particles in the event.Comment: 36 pages plus author list + cover page (54 pages total), 14 figures, 4 tables, submitted to EPJC, All figures including auxiliary figures are available at http://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/STDM-2014-0

Characterization of Autosomal Dominant Hypercholesterolemia Caused by PCSK9 Gain of Function Mutations and its Specific Treatment with Alirocumab, a PCSK9 Monoclonal Antibody

BACKGROUND: Patients with PCSK9 gene gain of function (GOF) mutations have a rare form of autosomal dominant hypercholesterolemia. However, data examining their clinical characteristics and geographic distribution are lacking. Furthermore, no randomized treatment study in this population has been reported. METHODS AND RESULTS: -We compiled clinical characteristics of PCSK9 GOF mutation carriers in a multinational retrospective, cross-sectional, observational study. We then performed a randomized placebo-phase, double-blind study of alirocumab 150 mg administered subcutaneously every 2 weeks to 13 patients representing four different PCSK9 GOF mutations with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) >70 mg/dL on their current lipid-lowering therapies at baseline. Observational study: Among 164 patients, 16 different PCSK9 GOF mutations distributed throughout the gene were associated with varying severity of untreated LDL-C levels. Coronary artery disease was common (33%; average age of onset 49.4 years) and untreated LDL-C concentrations were higher compared with matched carriers of mutations in the LDLR (n=2126) or apolipoprotein B (n=470) genes. Intervention study: In PCSK9 GOF mutation patients randomly assigned to receive alirocumab, mean percent reduction in LDL-C at 2 weeks was 62.5% (P<0.0001) from baseline, 53.7% compared to placebo-treated PCSK9 GOF mutation patients (P=0.0009; primary endpoint). After all subjects received 8 weeks of alirocumab treatment, LDL-C was reduced by 73% from baseline (P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: -PCSK9 GOF mutation carriers have elevated LDL-C levels and are at high risk for premature cardiovascular disease. Alirocumab, a PCSK9 antibody, markedly lowers LDL-C levels and appears to be well tolerated in these patients. Clinical Trial Registration-www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique Identifier: NCT01604824These studies were sponsored by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. and Sanofi