Determinants of response to a parent questionnaire about development and behaviour in 3 year olds: European multicentre study of congenital toxoplasmosis.

Background: We aimed to determine how response to a parent-completed postal questionnaire measuring development, behaviour, impairment, and parental concerns and anxiety, varies in different European centres. Methods: Prospective cohort study of 3 year old children, with and without congenital toxoplasmosis, who were identified by prenatal or neonatal screening for toxoplasmosis in 11 centres in 7 countries. Parents were mailed a questionnaire that comprised all or part of existing validated tools. We determined the effect of characteristics of the centre and child on response, age at questionnaire completion, and response to child drawing tasks. Results: The questionnaire took 21 minutes to complete on average. 67% (714/1058) of parents responded. Few parents (60/1058) refused to participate. The strongest determinants of response were the score for organisational attributes of the study centre (such as direct involvement in follow up and access to an address register), and infection with congenital toxoplasmosis. Age at completion was associated with study centre, presence of neurological abnormalities in early infancy, and duration of prenatal treatment. Completion rates for individual questions exceeded 92% except for child completed drawings of a man (70%), which were completed more by girls, older children, and in certain centres. Conclusion: Differences in response across European centres were predominantly related to the organisation of follow up and access to correct addresses. The questionnaire was acceptable in all six countries and offers a low cost tool for assessing development, behaviour, and parental concerns and anxiety, in multinational studies

DADA: data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events

A new nudging method for data assimilation, delay‐coordinate nudging, is presented. Delay‐coordinate nudging makes explicit use of present and past observations in the formulation of the forcing driving the model evolution at each time step. Numerical experiments with a low‐order chaotic system show that the new method systematically outperforms standard nudging in different model and observational scenarios, also when using an unoptimized formulation of the delay‐nudging coefficients. A connection between the optimal delay and the dominant Lyapunov exponent of the dynamics is found based on heuristic arguments and is confirmed by the numerical results, providing a guideline for the practical implementation of the algorithm. Delay‐coordinate nudging preserves the easiness of implementation, the intuitive functioning and the reduced computational cost of the standard nudging, making it a potential alternative especially in the field of seasonal‐to‐decadal predictions with large Earth system models that limit the use of more sophisticated data assimilation procedures

Detecting sulphate aerosol geoengineering with different methods

Sulphate aerosol injection has been widely discussed as a possible way to engineer future climate. Monitoring it would require detecting its effects amidst internal variability and in the presence of other external forcings. We investigate how the use of different detection methods and filtering techniques affects the detectability of sulphate aerosol geoengineering in annual-mean global-mean near-surface air temperature. This is done by assuming a future scenario that injects 5 Tg yr−1 of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere and cross-comparing simulations from 5 climate models. 64% of the studied comparisons would require 25 years or more for detection when no filter and the multi-variate method that has been extensively used for attributing climate change are used, while 66% of the same comparisons would require fewer than 10 years for detection using a trend-based filter. This highlights the high sensitivity of sulphate aerosol geoengineering detectability to the choice of filter. With the same trend-based filter but a non-stationary method, 80% of the comparisons would require fewer than 10 years for detection. This does not imply sulphate aerosol geoengineering should be deployed, but suggests that both detection methods could be used for monitoring geoengineering in global, annual mean temperature should it be needed

Synthesis of Chlorophyll-Binding Proteins in a Fully Segregated Δycf54 Strain of the Cyanobacterium Synechocystis PCC 6803

In the chlorophyll (Chl) biosynthesis pathway the formation of protochlorophyllide is catalyzed by Mg-protoporphyrin IX methyl ester (MgPME) cyclase. The Ycf54 protein was recently shown to form a complex with another component of the oxidative cyclase, Sll1214 (CycI), and partial inactivation of the ycf54 gene leads to Chl deficiency in cyanobacteria and plants. The exact function of the Ycf54 is not known, however, and further progress depends on construction and characterization of a mutant cyanobacterial strain with a fully inactivated ycf54 gene. Here, we report the complete deletion of the ycf54 gene in the cyanobacterium Synechocystis 6803; the resulting Δycf54 strain accumulates huge concentrations of the cyclase substrate MgPME together with another pigment, which we identified using nuclear magnetic resonance as 3-formyl MgPME. The detection of a small amount (~13%) of Chl in the Δycf54 mutant provides clear evidence that the Ycf54 protein is important, but not essential, for activity of the oxidative cyclase. The greatly reduced formation of protochlorophyllide in the Δycf54 strain provided an opportunity to use 35S protein labeling combined with 2D electrophoresis to examine the synthesis of all known Chl-binding protein complexes under drastically restricted de novo Chl biosynthesis. We show that although the Δycf54 strain synthesizes very limited amounts of photosystem I and the CP47 and CP43 subunits of photosystem II (PSII), the synthesis of PSII D1 and D2 subunits and their assembly into the reaction centre (RCII) assembly intermediate were not affected. Furthermore, the levels of other Chl complexes such as cytochrome b6f and the HliD– Chl synthase remained comparable to wild-type. These data demonstrate that the requirement for de novo Chl molecules differs completely for each Chl-binding protein. Chl traffic and recycling in the cyanobacterial cell as well as the function of Ycf54 are discussed

Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes

Copyright © 2014 Nature Publishing GroupThere has been an ostensibly large number of extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during the past decade [1]. An open question that is critically important for scientists and policy makers is whether any such increase in weather extremes is natural or anthropogenic in origin [2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13]. One mechanism proposed to explain the increased frequency of extreme weather events is the amplification of mid-latitude atmospheric planetary waves [14, 15, 16, 17]. Disproportionately large warming in the northern polar regions compared with mid-latitudes—and associated weakening of the north–south temperature gradient—may favour larger amplitude planetary waves [14, 15, 16, 17], although observational evidence for this remains inconclusive [18, 19, 20, 21]. A better understanding of the role of planetary waves in causing mid-latitude weather extremes is essential for assessing the potential environmental and socio-economic impacts of future planetary wave changes. Here we show that months of extreme weather over mid-latitudes are commonly accompanied by significantly amplified quasi-stationary mid-tropospheric planetary waves. Conversely, months of near-average weather over mid-latitudes are often accompanied by significantly attenuated waves. Depending on geographical region, certain types of extreme weather (for example, hot, cold, wet, dry) are more strongly related to wave amplitude changes than others. The findings suggest that amplification of quasi-stationary waves preferentially increases the probabilities of heat waves in western North America and central Asia, cold outbreaks in eastern North America, droughts in central North America, Europe and central Asia, and wet spells in western Asia.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts

A succession of storms reaching Southern England in the winter of 2013/2014 caused severe floods and £451 million insured losses. In a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that, as well as increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, anthropogenic warming caused a small but significant increase in the number of January days with westerly flow, both of which increased extreme precipitation. Hydrological modelling indicates this increased extreme 30-day-average Thames river flows, and slightly increased daily peak flows, consistent with the understanding of the catchment’s sensitivity to longer-duration precipitation and changes in the role of snowmelt. Consequently, flood risk mapping shows a small increase in properties in the Thames catchment potentially at risk of riverine flooding, with a substantial range of uncertainty, demonstrating the importance of explicit modelling of impacts and relatively subtle changes in weather-related risks when quantifying present-day effects of human influence on climate

Pharmacokinetics of rifampicin in adult TB patients and healthy volunteers: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives: The objectives of this study were to explore inter-study heterogeneity in the pharmacokinetics (PK) of orally administered rifampicin, to derive summary estimates of rifampicin PK parameters at standard dosages and to compare these with summary estimates for higher dosages. Methods: A systematic search was performed for studies of rifampicin PK published in the English language up to May 2017. Data describing the Cmax and AUC were extracted. Meta-analysis provided summary estimates for PK parameter estimates at standard rifampicin dosages. Heterogeneity was assessed by estimation of the I2 statistic and visual inspection of forest plots. Summary AUC estimates at standard and higher dosages were compared graphically and contextualized using preclinical pharmacodynamic (PD) data. Results: Substantial heterogeneity in PK parameters was evident and upheld in meta-regression. Treatment duration had a significant impact on the summary estimates for rifampicin PK parameters, with Cmax 8.98 mg/L (SEM 2.19) after a single dose and 5.79 mg/L (SEM 2.14) at steady-state dosing, and AUC 72.56 mg.h/L (SEM 2.60) and 38.73 mg.h/L (SEM 4.33) after single and steady-state dosing, respectively. Rifampicin dosages of at least 25 mg/kg are required to achieve plasma PK/PD targets defined in preclinical studies. Conclusions: Vast inter-study heterogeneity exists in rifampicin PK parameter estimates. This is not explained by the available modifying variables. The recommended dosage of rifampicin should be increased to improve efficacy. This study provides an important point of reference for understanding rifampicin PK at standard dosages as efforts to explore higher dosing strategies continue in this field

A comprehensive 1000 Genomes-based genome-wide association meta-analysis of coronary artery disease

Existing knowledge of genetic variants affecting risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) is largely based on genome-wide association studies (GWAS) analysis of common SNPs. Leveraging phased haplotypes from the 1000 Genomes Project, we report a GWAS meta-analysis of 185 thousand CAD cases and controls, interrogating 6.7 million common (MAF>0.05) as well as 2.7 million low frequency (0.005<MAF<0.05) variants. In addition to confirmation of most known CAD loci, we identified 10 novel loci, eight additive and two recessive, that contain candidate genes that newly implicate biological processes in vessel walls. We observed intra-locus allelic heterogeneity but little evidence of low frequency variants with larger effects and no evidence of synthetic association. Our analysis provides a comprehensive survey of the fine genetic architecture of CAD showing that genetic susceptibility to this common disease is largely determined by common SNPs of small effect siz

Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation

Understanding how human influence on climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and expectations that significant changes in regional precipitation should have already occurred as a result of human influence on climate, compelling evidence of anthropogenic fingerprints on regional precipitation is obscured by observational and modelling uncertainties and is likely to remain so using current methods for years to come. This is in spite of substantial ongoing improvements in models, new reanalyses and a satellite record that spans over thirty years. If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle, we need to consider novel ways of identifying the effects of natural and anthropogenic influences on precipitation that take full advantage of our physical expectations