Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Consensus guidelines for the use and interpretation of angiogenesis assays

The formation of new blood vessels, or angiogenesis, is a complex process that plays important roles in growth and development, tissue and organ regeneration, as well as numerous pathological conditions. Angiogenesis undergoes multiple discrete steps that can be individually evaluated and quantified by a large number of bioassays. These independent assessments hold advantages but also have limitations. This article describes in vivo, ex vivo, and in vitro bioassays that are available for the evaluation of angiogenesis and highlights critical aspects that are relevant for their execution and proper interpretation. As such, this collaborative work is the first edition of consensus guidelines on angiogenesis bioassays to serve for current and future reference

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms

Thermodynamic assessment of the stability of thrombin receptor antagonistic peptides in hydrophobic environments.

In this paper, a general procedure is described to determine thermodynamic parameters associated with the interaction of thrombin receptor antagonistic peptides (TRAPs) with immobilized nonpolar ligands. The results show that these interactions were associated with nonlinear van't Hoff dependencies over a wide temperature range. Moreover, changes in relevant thermodynamic parameters, namely the changes in Gibbs free energy of interaction, DeltaG(0)assoc, enthalpy of interaction, DeltaH(0)assoc, entropy of interaction, DeltaS(0)assoc, and heat capacity, DeltaC(0)p, have been related to the structural properties of these TRAP analogs. The implications of these investigations for the design of thrombin receptor agonists/antagonists with structures stabilized by intramolecular hydrophobic interactions are discussed

Multiple nonglycemic genomic loci are newly associated with blood level of glycated hemoglobin in East Asians

Glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) is used as a measure of glycemic control and also as a diagnostic criterion for diabetes. To discover novel loci harboring common variants associated with HbA1c in East Asians, we conducted a meta-analysis of 13 genome-wide association studies (GWAS; N = 21,026). We replicated our findings in three additional studies comprising 11,576 individuals of East Asian ancestry. Ten variants showed associations that reached genome-wide significance in the discovery data set, of which nine (four novel variants at TMEM79 [ P value = 1.3 × 10 -23], HBS1L/MYB [8.5 × 10-15], MYO9B [9.0 × 10-12], and CYBA [1.1 × 10-8] as well as five variants at loci that had been previously identified [CDKAL1, G6PC2/ ABCB11, GCK, ANK1, and FN3KI]) showed consistent evidence of association in replication data sets. These variants explained 1.76% of the variance in HbA1c. Several of these variants (TMEM79, HBS1L/MYB, CYBA, MYO9B, ANK1, and FN3K) showed no association with either blood glucose or type 2 diabetes. Among individuals with nondiabetic levels of fasting glucose (<7.0 mmol/L) but elevated HbA1c (≥6.5%), 36.1% had HbA1c <6.5% after adjustment for these six variants. Our East Asian GWAS meta-analysis has identified novel variants associated with HbA1c as well as demonstrated that the effects of known variants are largely transferable across ethnic groups. Variants affecting erythrocyte parameters rather than glucose metabolism may be relevant to the use of HbA1c for diagnosing diabetes in these populations