The First 2 Years of COVID-19: Lessons to Improve Preparedness for the Next Pandemic

On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) Country Office in China reported novel “viral pneumonias of unknown cause” in Wuhan, but China did not confirm case clusters until January 3, 2020. Two years later, more than 285 million cases and 5.4 million deaths have been reported. As of December 2021, more than 800 000 COVID-19 deaths have occurred in the US, surpassing the 675 446 total deaths that occurred during the great influenza pandemic of 1918. The COVID-19 pandemic reduced global economic growth by an estimated 3.2% in 2020, with trade declining by 5.3%; an estimated 75 million people entered extreme poverty, with 80 million more undernourished compared with prepandemic levels.1 Although the COVID-19 and 1918 influenza pandemics stand alone in morbidity and mortality, evidence suggests the frequency of infectious disease emergencies will increase. What lessons does COVID-19 teach to advance preparedness, detection, and response

POST-ARRIVAL SCREENING AND TREATMENT OF FOREIGN-BORN INDIVIDUALS FOR TUBERCULOSIS AND LATENT TUBERCULOSIS INFECTION

Though the total number of tuberculosis (TB) cases reported in the United States (US) is decreasing, persistently high incidence among foreign-born individuals has slowed progress towards national TB elimination. Reducing the overall incidence of TB the US will require enhanced diagnosis and treatment of active TB among the foreign-born, as well as targeting the pool of latently infected individuals who represent an important source of future TB cases. This analysis examines three important aspects of controlling TB in foreign-born individuals. The first study evaluates of efforts by Baltimore City Health Department (BCHD) to screen and treat refugees, non-refugee foreign-born individuals and other patient groups for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) and describes factors associated with patient compliance with LTBI evaluation. The second study evaluates post-arrival screening and treatment of high-risk (Class B) immigrants referred to BCHD and assesses whether recent efforts to conduct additional sputa testing on all Class B immigrants resulted in enhanced TB case finding. The third study reviews the importance of LTBI testing and treatment of the foreign-born, and examines ways to equip health departments to complete this important pillar of the US strategy for TB elimination. The results of these studies suggest that local health department efforts to screen and treat foreign-born individuals for tuberculosis and LTBI can be effective in reducing the overall burden of illness within the community. However, persistent resource limitations and other factors can reduce the effectiveness of these programs

An Analysis of International Health Regulations Emergency Committees and Public Health Emergency of International Concern Designations

Nine public health events have been assessed for the potential declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). According to the World Health Organization (WHO) International Health Regulations (IHR), a PHEIC is defined as an extraordinary event that constitutes a public health risk to other states through international spread and requires a coordinated international response. The WHO Director-General convenes Emergency Committees (ECs) to provide their advice on whether an event constitutes a PHEIC. The EC rationales have been continuously criticised for being non-transparent and contradictory to the IHR. This first comprehensive analysis of EC rationale provides recommendations to increase clarity of EC decisions which will strengthen the IHR and WHO’s legitimacy in future outbreaks. A total of 66 EC statements were reviewed from the nine public health outbreaks of influenza A, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, polio, Ebola virus disease, Zika, yellow fever and coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). Statements were analysed to determine which of the three IHR criteria were noted as contributing towards the EC’s justification on whether to recommend to the WHO Director-General that a PHEIC be declared and what language was used to explain their decision. Interpretation of the criteria were often vague and applied inconsistently. ECs often failed to describe and justify which criteria had been satisfied. Guidelines must be developed for the standardised interpretation of IHR core criteria. The ECs must clearly identify and justify which criteria have contributed to their rationale for or against PHEIC declaration. Striving for more consistency and transparency in EC justifications would benefit future deliberations and provide more understanding and support for the process

The Value Proposition of the Global Health Security Index

Infectious disease outbreaks pose major threats to human health and security. Countries with robust capacities for preventing, detecting and responding to outbreaks can avert many of the social, political, economic and health system costs of such crises. The Global Health Security Index (GHS Index)—the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across 195 countries—recently found that no country is sufficiently prepared for epidemics or pandemics. The GHS Index can help health security stakeholders identify areas of weakness, as well as opportunities to collaborate across sectors, collectively strengthen health systems and achieve shared public health goals. Some scholars have recently offered constructive critiques of the GHS Index’s approach to scoring and ranking countries; its weighting of select indicators; its emphasis on transparency; its focus on biosecurity and biosafety capacities; and divergence between select country scores and corresponding COVID-19-associated caseloads, morbidity, and mortality. Here, we (1) describe the practical value of the GHS Index; (2) present potential use cases to help policymakers and practitioners maximise the utility of the tool; (3) discuss the importance of scoring and ranking; (4) describe the robust methodology underpinning country scores and ranks; (5) highlight the GHS Index’s emphasis on transparency and (6) articulate caveats for users wishing to use GHS Index data in health security research, policymaking and practice

Roadmap on optical energy conversion

For decades, progress in the field of optical (including solar) energy conversion was dominated by advances in the conventional concentrating optics and materials design. In recent years, however, conceptual and technological breakthroughs in the fields of nanophotonics and plasmonics combined with a better understanding of the thermodynamics of the photon energy-conversion processes reshaped the landscape of energy-conversion schemes and devices. Nanostructured devices and materials that make use of size quantization effects to manipulate photon density of states offer a way to overcome the conventional light absorption limits. Novel optical spectrum splitting and photon-recycling schemes reduce the entropy production in the optical energy-conversion platforms and boost their efficiencies. Optical design concepts are rapidly expanding into the infrared energy band, offering new approaches to harvest waste heat, to reduce the thermal emission losses, and to achieve noncontact radiative cooling of solar cells as well as of optical and electronic circuitries. Light–matter interaction enabled by nanophotonics and plasmonics underlie the performance of the third- and fourth-generation energy-conversion devices, including up- and down-conversion of photon energy, near-field radiative energy transfer, and hot electron generation and harvesting. Finally, the increased market penetration of alternative solar energy-conversion technologies amplifies the role of cost-driven and environmental considerations. This roadmap on optical energy conversion provides a snapshot of the state of the art in optical energy conversion, remaining challenges, and most promising approaches to address these challenges. Leading experts authored 19 focused short sections of the roadmap where they share their vision on a specific aspect of this burgeoning research field. The roadmap opens up with a tutorial section, which introduces major concepts and terminology. It is our hope that the roadmap will serve as an important resource for the scientific community, new generations of researchers, funding agencies, industry experts, and investors.United States. Department of Energy (DE-AC36-086038308

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe

Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI

Search for stop and higgsino production using diphoton Higgs boson decays

Results are presented of a search for a "natural" supersymmetry scenario with gauge mediated symmetry breaking. It is assumed that only the supersymmetric partners of the top-quark (stop) and the Higgs boson (higgsino) are accessible. Events are examined in which there are two photons forming a Higgs boson candidate, and at least two b-quark jets. In 19.7 inverse femtobarns of proton-proton collision data at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV, recorded in the CMS experiment, no evidence of a signal is found and lower limits at the 95% confidence level are set, excluding the stop mass below 360 to 410 GeV, depending on the higgsino mass