A Search for QPOs in the Blazar OJ287: Preliminary Results from the 2015/2016 Observing Campaign

We analyse the light curve in the R band of the blazar OJ287, gathered during the 2015/2016 observing season. We did a search for quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) using several methods over a wide range of timescales. No statistically significant periods were found in the high-frequency domain both in the ground-based data and in Kepler observations. In the longer-period domain, the Lomb–Scargle periodogram revealed several peaks above the 99% significance level. The longest one—about 95 days—corresponds to the innermost stable circular orbit (ISCO) period of the more massive black hole. The 43-day period could be an alias, or it can be attributed to accretion in the form of a two-armed spiral wave.Peer reviewe

After the epidemic: Zika virus projections for Latin America and the Caribbean

Background: Zika is one of the most challenging emergent vector-borne diseases, yet its future public health impact remains unclear. Zika was of little public health concern until recent reports of its association with congenital syndromes. By 3 August 2017 ~217,000 Zika cases and ~3,400 cases of associated congenital syndrome were reported in Latin America and the Caribbean. Some modelling exercises suggest that Zika virus infection could become endemic in agreement with recent declarations from the The World Health Organisation. Methodology/Principal findings: We produced high-resolution spatially-explicit projections of Zika cases, associated congenital syndromes and monetary costs for Latin America and the Caribbean now that the epidemic phase of the disease appears to be over. In contrast to previous studies which have adopted a modelling approach to map Zika potential, we project case numbers using a statistical approach based upon reported dengue case data as a Zika surrogate. Our results indicate that ~12.3 (0.7–162.3) million Zika cases could be expected across Latin America and the Caribbean every year, leading to ~64.4 (0.2–5159.3) thousand cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome and ~4.7 (0.0–116.3) thousand cases of microcephaly. The economic burden of these neurological sequelae are estimated to be USD ~2.3 (USD 0–159.3) billion per annum. Conclusions/Significance: Zika is likely to have significant public health consequences across Latin America and the Caribbean in years to come. Our projections inform regional and federal health authorities, offering an opportunity to adapt to this public health challenge

Authenticating the Presence of a Relativistic Massive Black Hole Binary in OJ 287 Using Its General Relativity Centenary Flare : Improved Orbital Parameters

Results from regular monitoring of relativistic compact binaries like PSR 1913+16 are consistent with the dominant (quadrupole) order emission of gravitational waves (GWs). We show that observations associated with the binary black hole (BBH) central engine of blazar OJ 287 demand the inclusion of gravitational radiation reaction effects beyond the quadrupolar order. It turns out that even the effects of certain hereditary contributions to GW emission are required to predict impact flare timings of OJ 287. We develop an approach that incorporates this effect into the BBH model for OJ 287. This allows us to demonstrate an excellent agreement between the observed impact flare timings and those predicted from ten orbital cycles of the BBH central engine model. The deduced rate of orbital period decay is nine orders of magnitude higher than the observed rate in PSR 1913+16, demonstrating again the relativistic nature of OJ 287's central engine. Finally, we argue that precise timing of the predicted 2019 impact flare should allow a test of the celebrated black hole "no-hair theorem" at the 10% level.Peer reviewe

Long daytime napping is associated with increased adiposity and type 2 diabetes in an elderly population with metabolic syndrome

Research examining associations between objectively-measured napping time and type 2 diabetes (T2D) is lacking. This study aimed to evaluate daytime napping in relation to T2D and adiposity measures in elderly individuals from the Mediterranean region. A cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from 2190 elderly participants with overweight/obesity and metabolic syndrome, in the PREDIMED-Plus trial, was carried out. Accelerometer-derived napping was measured. Prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for T2D were obtained using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression with constant time. Linear regression models were fitted to examine associations of napping with body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC). Participants napping ≥90 min had a higher prevalence of T2D (PR 1.37 (1.06, 1.78)) compared with those napping 5 to <30 min per day. Significant positive associations with BMI and WC were found in those participants napping ≥30 min as compared to those napping 5 to <30 min per day. The findings of this study suggest that longer daytime napping is associated with higher T2D prevalence and greater adiposity measures in an elderly Spanish population at high cardiovascular risk

Implications of early respiratory support strategies on disease progression in critical COVID-19: a matched subanalysis of the prospective RISC-19-ICU cohort.

Uncertainty about the optimal respiratory support strategies in critically ill COVID-19 patients is widespread. While the risks and benefits of noninvasive techniques versus early invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) are intensely debated, actual evidence is lacking. We sought to assess the risks and benefits of different respiratory support strategies, employed in intensive care units during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic on intubation and intensive care unit (ICU) mortality rates. Subanalysis of a prospective, multinational registry of critically ill COVID-19 patients. Patients were subclassified into standard oxygen therapy ≥10 L/min (SOT), high-flow oxygen therapy (HFNC), noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation (NIV), and early IMV, according to the respiratory support strategy employed at the day of admission to ICU. Propensity score matching was performed to ensure comparability between groups. Initially, 1421 patients were assessed for possible study inclusion. Of these, 351 patients (85 SOT, 87 HFNC, 87 NIV, and 92 IMV) remained eligible for full analysis after propensity score matching. 55% of patients initially receiving noninvasive respiratory support required IMV. The intubation rate was lower in patients initially ventilated with HFNC and NIV compared to those who received SOT (SOT: 64%, HFNC: 52%, NIV: 49%, p = 0.025). Compared to the other respiratory support strategies, NIV was associated with a higher overall ICU mortality (SOT: 18%, HFNC: 20%, NIV: 37%, IMV: 25%, p = 0.016). In this cohort of critically ill patients with COVID-19, a trial of HFNC appeared to be the most balanced initial respiratory support strategy, given the reduced intubation rate and comparable ICU mortality rate. Nonetheless, considering the uncertainty and stress associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, SOT and early IMV represented safe initial respiratory support strategies. The presented findings, in agreement with classic ARDS literature, suggest that NIV should be avoided whenever possible due to the elevated ICU mortality risk

Multimessenger NuEM Alerts with AMON

The Astrophysical Multimessenger Observatory Network (AMON), has developed a real-time multi-messenger alert system. The system performs coincidence analyses of datasets from gamma-ray and neutrino detectors, making the Neutrino-Electromagnetic (NuEM) alert channel. For these analyses, AMON takes advantage of sub-threshold events, i.e., events that by themselves are not significant in the individual detectors. The main purpose of this channel is to search for gamma-ray counterparts of neutrino events. We will describe the different analyses that make-up this channel and present a selection of recent results

Multimessenger Gamma-Ray and Neutrino Coincidence Alerts using HAWC and IceCube sub-threshold Data

The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) and IceCube observatories, through the Astrophysical Multimessenger Observatory Network (AMON) framework, have developed a multimessenger joint search for extragalactic astrophysical sources. This analysis looks for sources that emit both cosmic neutrinos and gamma rays that are produced in photo-hadronic or hadronic interactions. The AMON system is running continuously, receiving sub-threshold data (i.e. data that is not suited on its own to do astrophysical searches) from HAWC and IceCube, and combining them in real-time. We present here the analysis algorithm, as well as results from archival data collected between June 2015 and August 2018, with a total live-time of 3.0 years. During this period we found two coincident events that have a false alarm rate (FAR) of $<1$ coincidence per year, consistent with the background expectations. The real-time implementation of the analysis in the AMON system began on November 20th, 2019, and issues alerts to the community through the Gamma-ray Coordinates Network with a FAR threshold of $<4$ coincidences per year.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, 3 table

Elective Cancer Surgery in COVID-19-Free Surgical Pathways During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: An International, Multicenter, Comparative Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19-free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19-free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS: Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19-free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19-free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score-matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION: Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19-free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks