Evaluation of elicitation methods to quantify Bayes linear models

The Bayes linear methodology allows decision makers to express their subjective beliefs and adjust these beliefs as observations are made. It is similar in spirit to probabilistic Bayesian approaches, but differs as it uses expectation as its primitive. While substantial work has been carried out in Bayes linear analysis, both in terms of theory development and application, there is little published material on the elicitation of structured expert judgement to quantify models. This paper investigates different methods that could be used by analysts when creating an elicitation process. The theoretical underpinnings of the elicitation methods developed are explored and an evaluation of their use is presented. This work was motivated by, and is a precursor to, an industrial application of Bayes linear modelling of the reliability of defence systems. An illustrative example demonstrates how the methods can be used in practice

A selective PIKfyve inhibitor blocks PtdIns(3,5)P2 production and disrupts endomembrane transport and retroviral budding

Phosphoinositides have crucial roles in cellular controls, many of which have been established through the use of small-molecule inhibitors. Here, we describe YM201636, a potent inhibitor of the mammalian class III phosphatidylinositol phosphate kinase PIKfyve, which synthesizes phosphatidylinositol 3,5-bisphosphate. Acute treatment of cells with YM201636 shows that the PIKfyve pathway is involved in the sorting of endosomal transport, with inhibition leading to the accumulation of a late endosomal compartment and blockade of retroviral exit. Inhibitor specificity is shown by the use of short interfering RNA against the target, as well as by rescue with the drug-resistant yeast orthologue Fab1. We concluded that the phosphatidylinositol 3,5-bisphosphate pathway is integral to endosome formation, determining morphology and cargo flux

Nitrogen forms affect root structure and water uptake in the hybrid poplar

The study analyses the effects of two different forms of nitrogen fertilisation (nitrate and ammonium) on root structure and water uptake of two hybrid poplar (Populus maximowiczii x P. balsamifera) clones in a field experiment. Water uptake was studied using sap flow gauges on individual proximal roots and coarse root structure was examined by excavating 18 whole-root systems. Finer roots were scanned and analyzed for architecture. Nitrogen forms did not affect coarse-root system development, but had a significant effect on fine-root development. Nitrate-treated trees presented higher fine:coarse root ratios and higher specific root lengths than control or ammonium treated trees. These allocation differences affected the water uptake capacity of the plants as reflected by the higher sapflow rate in the nitrate treatment. The diameter of proximal roots at the tree base predicted well the total root biomass and length. The diameter of smaller lateral roots also predicted the lateral root mass, length, surface area and the number of tips. The effect of nitrogen fertilisation on the fine root structure translated into an effect on the functioning of the fine roots forming a link between form (architecture) and function (water uptake)

Area-level deprivation and adiposity in children: is the relationship linear?

OBJECTIVE: It has been suggested that childhood obesity is inversely associated with deprivation, such that the prevalence is higher in more deprived groups. However, comparatively few studies actually use an area-level measure of deprivation, limiting the scope to assess trends in the association with obesity for this indicator. Furthermore, most assume a linear relationship. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate associations between area-level deprivation and three measures of adiposity in children: body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR). DESIGN: This is a cross-sectional study in which data were collected on three occasions a year apart (2005-2007). SUBJECTS: Data were available for 13,333 children, typically aged 11-12 years, from 37 schools and 542 lower super-output areas (LSOAs). MEASURES: Stature, mass and WC. Obesity was defined as a BMI and WC exceeding the 95th centile according to British reference data. WHtR exceeding 0.5 defined obesity. The Index of Multiple Deprivation affecting children (IDACI) was used to determine area-level deprivation. RESULTS: Considerable differences in the prevalence of obesity exist between the three different measures. However, for all measures of adiposity the highest probability of being classified as obese is in the middle of the IDACI range. This relationship is more marked in girls, such that the probability of being obese for girls living in areas at the two extremes of deprivation is around half that at the peak, occurring in the middle. CONCLUSION: These data confirm the high prevalence of obesity in children and suggest that the relationship between obesity and residential area-level deprivation is not linear. This is contrary to the 'deprivation theory' and questions the current understanding and interpretation of the relationship between obesity and deprivation in children. These results could help make informed decisions at the local level

Possible origins of macroscopic left-right asymmetry in organisms

I consider the microscopic mechanisms by which a particular left-right (L/R) asymmetry is generated at the organism level from the microscopic handedness of cytoskeletal molecules. In light of a fundamental symmetry principle, the typical pattern-formation mechanisms of diffusion plus regulation cannot implement the "right-hand rule"; at the microscopic level, the cell's cytoskeleton of chiral filaments seems always to be involved, usually in collective states driven by polymerization forces or molecular motors. It seems particularly easy for handedness to emerge in a shear or rotation in the background of an effectively two-dimensional system, such as the cell membrane or a layer of cells, as this requires no pre-existing axis apart from the layer normal. I detail a scenario involving actin/myosin layers in snails and in C. elegans, and also one about the microtubule layer in plant cells. I also survey the other examples that I am aware of, such as the emergence of handedness such as the emergence of handedness in neurons, in eukaryote cell motility, and in non-flagellated bacteria.Comment: 42 pages, 6 figures, resubmitted to J. Stat. Phys. special issue. Major rewrite, rearranged sections/subsections, new Fig 3 + 6, new physics in Sec 2.4 and 3.4.1, added Sec 5 and subsections of Sec

Population uptake of antiretroviral treatment through primary care in rural South Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>KwaZulu-Natal is the South African province worst affected by HIV and the focus of early modeling studies investigating strategies of antiretroviral treatment (ART) delivery. The reality of antiretroviral roll-out through primary care has differed from that anticipated and real world data are needed to inform the planning of further scaling up of services. We investigated the factors associated with uptake of antiretroviral treatment through a primary healthcare system in rural South Africa.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Detailed demographic, HIV surveillance and geographic information system (GIS) data were used to estimate the proportion of HIV positive adults accessing antiretroviral treatment within northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa in the period from initiation of antiretroviral roll-out until the end of 2008. Demographic, spatial and socioeconomic factors influencing the likelihood of individuals accessing antiretroviral treatment were explored using multivariable analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mean uptake of ART among HIV positive resident adults was 21.0% (95%CI 20.1-21.9). Uptake among HIV positive men (19.2%) was slightly lower than women (21.8%, P = 0.011). An individual's likelihood of accessing ART was not associated with level of education, household assets or urban/rural locale. ART uptake was strongly negatively associated with distance from the nearest primary healthcare facility (aOR = 0.728 per square-root transformed km, 95%CI 0.658-0.963, <it>P </it>= 0.002).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite concerns about the equitable nature of antiretroviral treatment rollout, we find very few differences in ART uptake across a range of socio-demographic variables in a rural South African population. However, even when socio-demographic factors were taken into account, individuals living further away from primary healthcare clinics were still significantly less likely to be accessing ART</p

Research and Client-Based Projects

This chapter will:; ; ; Show how to develop a needs analysis based on sound research principles;; ; ; Examine a number of different client-based projects that have taken a business discourse approach to teaching;; ; ; Discuss different ways in which business discourse research can be used in the classroom;; ; ; Present a case study that illustrates how business discourse projects can be incorporated into teaching practices together with a set of tasks related to the use of business discourse research in the classroom and a set of further readings

Single hadron response measurement and calorimeter jet energy scale uncertainty with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

The uncertainty on the calorimeter energy response to jets of particles is derived for the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). First, the calorimeter response to single isolated charged hadrons is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo simulation using proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies of sqrt(s) = 900 GeV and 7 TeV collected during 2009 and 2010. Then, using the decay of K_s and Lambda particles, the calorimeter response to specific types of particles (positively and negatively charged pions, protons, and anti-protons) is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo predictions. Finally, the jet energy scale uncertainty is determined by propagating the response uncertainty for single charged and neutral particles to jets. The response uncertainty is 2-5% for central isolated hadrons and 1-3% for the final calorimeter jet energy scale.Comment: 24 pages plus author list (36 pages total), 23 figures, 1 table, submitted to European Physical Journal

Search for Neutral Higgs Bosons in Events with Multiple Bottom Quarks at the Tevatron

The combination of searches performed by the CDF and D0 collaborations at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider for neutral Higgs bosons produced in association with b quarks is reported. The data, corresponding to 2.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity at CDF and 5.2 fb-1 at D0, have been collected in final states containing three or more b jets. Upper limits are set on the cross section multiplied by the branching ratio varying between 44 pb and 0.7 pb in the Higgs boson mass range 90 to 300 GeV, assuming production of a narrow scalar boson. Significant enhancements to the production of Higgs bosons can be found in theories beyond the standard model, for example in supersymmetry. The results are interpreted as upper limits in the parameter space of the minimal supersymmetric standard model in a benchmark scenario favoring this decay mode.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure