Fast Bayesian experimental design: Laplace-based importance sampling for the expected information gain

In calculating expected information gain in optimal Bayesian experimental design, the computation of the inner loop in the classical double-loop Monte Carlo requires a large number of samples and suffers from underflow if the number of samples is small. These drawbacks can be avoided by using an importance sampling approach. We present a computationally efficient method for optimal Bayesian experimental design that introduces importance sampling based on the Laplace method to the inner loop. We derive the optimal values for the method parameters in which the average computational cost is minimized according to the desired error tolerance. We use three numerical examples to demonstrate the computational efficiency of our method compared with the classical double-loop Monte Carlo, and a more recent single-loop Monte Carlo method that uses the Laplace method as an approximation of the return value of the inner loop. The first example is a scalar problem that is linear in the uncertain parameter. The second example is a nonlinear scalar problem. The third example deals with the optimal sensor placement for an electrical impedance tomography experiment to recover the fiber orientation in laminate composites.Comment: 42 pages, 35 figure

Nesterov-aided Stochastic Gradient Methods using Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Design Optimization

Finding the best setup for experiments is the primary concern for Optimal Experimental Design (OED). Here, we focus on the Bayesian experimental design problem of finding the setup that maximizes the Shannon expected information gain. We use the stochastic gradient descent and its accelerated counterpart, which employs Nesterov's method, to solve the optimization problem in OED. We adapt a restart technique, originally proposed for the acceleration in deterministic optimization, to improve stochastic optimization methods. We combine these optimization methods with three estimators of the objective function: the double-loop Monte Carlo estimator (DLMC), the Monte Carlo estimator using the Laplace approximation for the posterior distribution (MCLA) and the double-loop Monte Carlo estimator with Laplace-based importance sampling (DLMCIS). Using stochastic gradient methods and Laplace-based estimators together allows us to use expensive and complex models, such as those that require solving partial differential equations (PDEs). From a theoretical viewpoint, we derive an explicit formula to compute the gradient estimator of the Monte Carlo methods, including MCLA and DLMCIS. From a computational standpoint, we study four examples: three based on analytical functions and one using the finite element method. The last example is an electrical impedance tomography experiment based on the complete electrode model. In these examples, the accelerated stochastic gradient descent method using MCLA converges to local maxima with up to five orders of magnitude fewer model evaluations than gradient descent with DLMC.Comment: 36 pages, 14 figure

Effect of shearing stress on the radial heterogeneity and chromatographic performance of styrene-based polymerised high internal phase emulsions prepared in capillary format

Poly(styrene-co-divinylbenzene) monoliths were prepared from the polymerisation of water-in-monomer high internal phase emulsions consisting of a 90 vol% internal phase and stabilised by the non-ionic surfactant Span 80®. The materials were prepared in capillary housings of various internal diameters ranging from 150 μm to 540 μm by simply passing the emulsion through the capillaries. When low shear (300 rpm) was used for emulsification, the droplet and resulting void size distributions were observed to shift towards lower values when the emulsions were forced through capillaries of internal diameter less than 540 μm and all columns exhibited significant radial heterogeneity. When high shear was employed (14 000 rpm) the resulting emulsions preserved their structure when forced through these capillaries and possessed narrower void size distributions with no obvious radial heterogeneity observed upon curing. This resulted in significantly improved chromatographic performance for the separation of a standard mixture of proteins when compared to the materials prepared under low shear

Brazilian Guidelines for Hereditary Angioedema Management - 2017 Update Part 1: Definition, Classification and Diagnosis

Hereditary angioedema is an autosomal dominant disease characterized by recurrent angioedema attacks with the involvement of multiple organs. The disease is unknown to many health professionals and is therefore underdiagnosed. Patients who are not adequately diagnosed and treated have an estimated mortality rate ranging from 25% to 40% due to asphyxiation by laryngeal angioedema. Intestinal angioedema is another important and incapacitating presentation that may be the main or only manifestation during an attack. In this article, a group of experts from the “Associação Brasileira de Alergia e Imunologia (ASBAI)” and the “Grupo de Estudos Brasileiro em Angioedema Hereditário (GEBRAEH)” has updated the Brazilian guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of hereditary angioedema

Modulation of phosphofructokinase (PFK) from Setaria cervi, a bovine filarial parasite, by different effectors and its interaction with some antifilarials

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Phosphofructokinase (ATP: D-fructose-6-phosphate-1-phosphotransferase, EC 2.7.1.11, PFK) is of primary importance in the regulation of glycolytic flux. This enzyme has been extensively studied from mammalian sources but relatively less attention has been paid towards its characterization from filarial parasites. Furthermore, the information about the response of filarial PFK towards the anthelmintics/antifilarial compounds is lacking. In view of these facts, PFK from <it>Setaria cervi</it>, a bovine filarial parasite having similarity with that of human filarial worms, was isolated, purified and characterized.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The <it>S. cervi </it>PFK was cytosolic in nature. The adult parasites (both female and male) contained more enzyme activity than the microfilarial (Mf) stage of <it>S. cervi</it>, which exhibited only 20% of total activity. The <it>S. cervi </it>PFK could be modulated by different nucleotides and the response of enzyme to these nucleotides was dependent on the concentrations of substrates (F-6-P and ATP). The enzyme possessed wide specificity towards utilization of the nucleotides as phosphate group donors. <it>S. cervi </it>PFK showed the presence of thiol group(s) at the active site of the enzyme, which could be protected from inhibitory action of para-chloromercuribenzoate (p-CMB) up to about 76% by pretreatment with cysteine or β-ME. The sensitivity of PFK from <it>S. cervi </it>towards antifilarials/anthelmintics was comparatively higher than that of mammalian PFK. With suramin, the Ki value for rat liver PFK was 40 times higher than PFK from <it>S. cervi</it>.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results indicate that the activity of filarial PFK may be modified by different effectors (such as nucleotides, thiol group reactants and anthelmintics) in filarial worms depending on the presence of varying concentrations of substrates (F-6-P and ATP) in the cellular milieu. It may possess thiol group at its active site responsible for catalysis. Relatively, 40 times higher sensitivity of filarial PFK towards suramin as compared to the analogous enzyme from the mammalian system indicates that this enzyme could be exploited as a potential chemotherapeutic target against filariasis.</p

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background: Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. // Methods: For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. // Findings: By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4–82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5–42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4–41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3–84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4–44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4–81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6–60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4–15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. // Interpretation: After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines

Measurement of the View the tt production cross-section using eμ events with b-tagged jets in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper describes a measurement of the inclusive top quark pair production cross-section (σtt¯) with a data sample of 3.2 fb−1 of proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 13 TeV, collected in 2015 by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. This measurement uses events with an opposite-charge electron–muon pair in the final state. Jets containing b-quarks are tagged using an algorithm based on track impact parameters and reconstructed secondary vertices. The numbers of events with exactly one and exactly two b-tagged jets are counted and used to determine simultaneously σtt¯ and the efficiency to reconstruct and b-tag a jet from a top quark decay, thereby minimising the associated systematic uncertainties. The cross-section is measured to be: σtt¯ = 818 ± 8 (stat) ± 27 (syst) ± 19 (lumi) ± 12 (beam) pb, where the four uncertainties arise from data statistics, experimental and theoretical systematic effects, the integrated luminosity and the LHC beam energy, giving a total relative uncertainty of 4.4%. The result is consistent with theoretical QCD calculations at next-to-next-to-leading order. A fiducial measurement corresponding to the experimental acceptance of the leptons is also presented

Search for High-Mass Resonances Decaying to τν in pp Collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS Detector

A search for high-mass resonances decaying to τν using proton-proton collisions at √s=13 TeV produced by the Large Hadron Collider is presented. Only τ-lepton decays with hadrons in the final state are considered. The data were recorded with the ATLAS detector and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1. No statistically significant excess above the standard model expectation is observed; model-independent upper limits are set on the visible τν production cross section. Heavy W′ bosons with masses less than 3.7 TeV in the sequential standard model and masses less than 2.2–3.8 TeV depending on the coupling in the nonuniversal G(221) model are excluded at the 95% credibility level