The Behavior and Choices of Serial Bidders in M&A Transactions: A Prospect Theory Approach

This paper investigates the impact of previous losses incurred by U.S serial bidders on their M&A strategic choices and premiums paid to acquire targets. The Hubris and Overconfidence theories suggest that managers tend to overpay as a result of exaggerating their ability to extract value and manage post-acquisition integration process between the acquiring firm and its target. Managerial overconfidence, which is signaled by conducting several acquisitions within a short time period or by other manager-specific investment attributes, has been shown to contribute to increasing premiums in M&A transactions and subsequent poor post-acquisition performance. Experimental findings in the area of psychology over the past three decades introduced the notion that economic agents experience utility resulting from changes in wealth (gains and losses) relative to a reference point rather than the level of total wealth and that losses loom larger than gains. The Prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) suggests that decision makers tend to be more aggressive (risk taking) after a loss in order to recover their losses and more risk averse after gains. The Quasi-Hedonic hypothesis (Thaler & Johnson, 1990) indicates that decision makers will become more risk taking after repeated gains ( House Money Effect ) but tend to be more risk averse after losses to avoid further pain. However, decision makers tend to be more risk taking after losses if there is a chance for breaking even. Using a sample of 16,582 M&A transactions by 3,512 U.S public bidders involved in at least two acquisition attempts over the 1990-2005 period, this study introduces several loss proxies based on corporate, market, industry and managerial compensation factors. Several empirical tests are conducted in this study to control for concurrent decisions taken by managers, endogeneity effects in explaining premiums, alternate model specifications, industry factors, time period effects as well as robustness for managerial overconfidence and entrenchment. The results are consistent across all sub-periods, however, the significance of M&A success history variables diminish over the 2001-2005 period. I present evidence that bidders suffering from earlier losses in terms of market, industry and compensation factors tend to be more aggressive in their target choices (i.e. choosing private and/or unrelated targets) and tend to overpay. Corporate loss events/shocks, such as failure to conclude an earlier merger deal, tend to motivate managers to make safer bets in terms of choosing public targets operating in related industries, however, still tend to overpay for targets. As the level of stock ownership of the bidder\u27s management/executive team increases, managers tend to respond to corporate failure events/shocks in a similar fashion as other loss proxies. The results presented are generally robust to overconfidence, insider ownership, sub-periods and industry wide factors. The results are also robust to the compensation structure of the management team and target-bidder relative size. In addition, the results presented in this study support the agency theory implications in regards to the bidder\u27s target choices (i.e., related/unrelated and private/public targets) and the market-driven/mispricing theory in regards to partially explaining premiums paid by bidders to acquire their prospective targets. The results presented provide support to the prospect theory propositions that losses experienced by economic agents induce an aggressive or risk taking behavior in subsequent bets by pursuing non-public and/or unrelated targets and offering higher premiums

Serum Squamous Cell Carcinoma Antigen Level in Cirrhotic Chronic Hepatitis C Patients With and Without Hepatocellular Carcinoma

This study will be carried out on 500 personnel divided into five groups : Group A: 100 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma without interventions. Group B: same 100 cases of group A before and 3 months after successful interventions.Group C: 100 cases of established cirrhosis. Group D: 100 cases with chronic hepatitis C virus infection without established cirrhosis. Group E: 100 healthy individuals as controls.Methods: Sera from selected patients and controls have been used for estimation of SCC-Ag using CanAg SCC EIA. Results: high significant increase in serum SCCA level in patients with HCC (groupA and groupB) when compared to cirrhotic, chronic HCV and control groups (P < 0.001). Positive significant correlation was found between AFP and serum SCCA level .The best cut-off value to differentiate HCC patients from cirrhotic patients was 3.2 ng/ml for SCCA yielded with 80% sensitivity and 90% specificity. When combined sensitivity of both markers was calculated in our study at the best-chosen cutoff values (SCCA 3.2 ng/ml and AFP 200 ng/ml) sensitivity improved to 93%.Conclusion: Combined SCCA and AFP can be used as in diagnosis of HCC and follow up 3 months after therapeutic intervention

Plasma soluble CD 163 level as a marker of oesophageal varices in cirrhotic patients

Background: Variceal bleeding (VB), the most common lethal complication of cirrhosis, associated with high mortality. Timely prediction of esophageal varices (EV) represents a real challenge for the medical team. This study evaluated the level of plasma soluble CD 163 as a marker of the presence of EVs and to compare it with other noninvasive clinical, laboratory and ultrasonographic parameters as well as endoscopy.Methods: This prospective controlled study was conducted on 80 adults. Gp I had no oesophageal varices, gp II had small varices, gp IIIa had large varices, gp IIIb are the same patients of gp IIIa but after eradication of varices and gp IV as healthy controls. Serum samples were assayed for soluble CD 163.Results: soluble CD163 was statistically significant different between controls and all liver cirrhosis. it showed a statistically significant difference between group I and II (p = 0.009) and between group I and IIIa (p &lt; 0.001) and between group II and IIIa (p &lt; 0.001) but, no difference between group IIIa and IIIb (p = 0.179).Conclusion: Serum soluble CD163 is a good noninvasive predictor for the presence of EVs and it may be used for grading of EVs. Its level does not change after esophageal varices eradication.Trial registration: IRB No: 00007589 FWA No: 00015712 The Ethics Committee of the faculty of medicine Alexandria University.Keywords: Hepatic, Cirrhosis, Varices, CD163, Endoscopy, Ultrasonograph

Breast Cancer Diagnosis and Survival Prediction Using JNN

Abstract: Breast cancer is reported to be the most common cancer type among women worldwide and it is the second highest women fatality rate amongst all cancer types. Notwithstanding all the progresses made in prevention and early intervention, early prognosis and survival prediction rates are still not sufficient. In this paper, we propose an ANN model which outperforms all the previous supervised learning methods by reaching 99.57 in terms of accuracy in Wisconsin Breast Cancer dataset. Experimental results on Haberman’s Breast Cancer Survival dataset show the superiority of proposed method by reaching 88.24 % in terms of accuracy. The results are the best reported ones obtained from Artificial Neural Network using JNN environment without any preprocessing of the dataset

Effect of Tadalafil on Penile Duplex parameters in Erectile Dysfunction Patients

Background: Tadalafil is a PDE-5 (phosphodiesterase inhibitor) inhibitor that supports endogenous nitric oxide's vasodilatory actions and aids in erection maintenance. The penile duplex has proven to be very useful for imaging superficial structures and for determining the reasons of erectile dysfunction (ED). Objectives: To assess the effect of daily oral tadalafil 5mg for 3 months on penile duplex parameters in erectile dysfunction patients. Patients and Methods: A case control study involved 30 Egyptian patients ED. Appropriate clinical history and penile duplex examination before and after treatment with daily oral tadalafil mg for 3 months were performed. Results: The mean age of the patients was 53.17 ± 7.8 years. We founded that there was significant (p < 0.001) improvement in the level of erection after treatment. The rate of erection E1 and E2 was decreased from 53.3% to 3.3%. Likewise, the rate of E3-E5 was increased from 46.7% to 96.7%. Moreover, the mean duration of erection was elongated from 24.7 ± 5.3 to become 37.4 ± 3.8 and this was statistically significant (p < 0.001). Also, the mean peak systolic volume (PSV) was significantly (p = 0.001) increased after treatment (38.4 ± 9.1 cm/s) compared with the pre-treatment levels (23.9 ± 6.1 cm/s). Unlikely, the mean end diastolic volume (EDV) was insignificantly (p = 0.340) lower in post-treatment (2.25 ± 0.5 mL) compared with pre-treatment levels (2.97 ± 0.4 mL). Likely, the mean resistant index (RI) showed insignificant difference (p = 0.965) after treatment (0.9 ± 0.02) compared with before treatment (0.9 ± 0.08). For penile artery diameter, there was significant (p = 0.009) increase in the diameter after treatment (0.9 ± 0.1 mm) compared with before treatment (0.8 ± 0.1 mm). Conclusion: Oral daily tadalafil 5mg for 3 months is considered an effective treatment for ED according to penile duplex parameters

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication

Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background: There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low-and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods: Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results: Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion: For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe

Burnout among surgeons before and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an international survey

Background: SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had many significant impacts within the surgical realm, and surgeons have been obligated to reconsider almost every aspect of daily clinical practice. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study reported in compliance with the CHERRIES guidelines and conducted through an online platform from June 14th to July 15th, 2020. The primary outcome was the burden of burnout during the pandemic indicated by the validated Shirom-Melamed Burnout Measure. Results: Nine hundred fifty-four surgeons completed the survey. The median length of practice was 10&nbsp;years; 78.2% included were male with a median age of 37&nbsp;years old, 39.5% were consultants, 68.9% were general surgeons, and 55.7% were affiliated with an academic institution. Overall, there was a significant increase in the mean burnout score during the pandemic; longer years of practice and older age were significantly associated with less burnout. There were significant reductions in the median number of outpatient visits, operated cases, on-call hours, emergency visits, and research work, so, 48.2% of respondents felt that the training resources were insufficient. The majority (81.3%) of respondents reported that their hospitals were included in the management of COVID-19, 66.5% felt their roles had been minimized; 41% were asked to assist in non-surgical medical practices, and 37.6% of respondents were included in COVID-19 management. Conclusions: There was a significant burnout among trainees. Almost all aspects of clinical and research activities were affected with a significant reduction in the volume of research, outpatient clinic visits, surgical procedures, on-call hours, and emergency cases hindering the training. Trial registration: The study was registered on clicaltrials.gov "NCT04433286" on 16/06/2020