Default Probability Estimation via Pair Copula Constructions

In this paper we present a novel Bayesian approach for default probability estimation. The methodology is based on multivariate contingent claim analysis and pair copula theory. Balance sheet data are used to asses the rm value and to compute its default probability. The rm pricing function is obtained via a pair copula approach, and Monte Carlo simulations are used to calculate the default probability distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to defaulted rms data

Transgenic chloroplasts are efficient sites for high-yield production of the vaccinia virus envelope protein A27L in plant cells.

Orthopoxviruses (OPVs) have recently received increasing attention because of their potential use in bioterrorism and the occurrence of zoonotic OPV outbreaks, highlighting the need for the development of safe and cost-effective vaccines against smallpox and related viruses. In this respect, the production of subunit protein-based vaccines in transgenic plants is an attractive approach. For this purpose, the A27L immunogenic protein of vaccinia virus was expressed in tobacco using stable transformation of the nuclear or plastid genome. The vaccinia virus protein was expressed in the stroma of transplastomic plants in soluble form and accumulated to about 18% of total soluble protein (equivalent to approximately 1.7 mg/g fresh weight). This level of A27L accumulation was 500-fold higher than that in nuclear transformed plants, and did not decline during leaf development. Transplastomic plants showed a partial reduction in growth and were chlorotic, but reached maturity and set fertile seeds. Analysis by immunofluorescence microscopy indicated altered chlorophyll distribution. Chloroplast-synthesized A27L formed oligomers, suggesting correct folding and quaternary structure, and was recognized by serum from a patient recently infected by a zoonotic OPV. Taken together, these results demonstrate that chloroplasts are an attractive production vehicle for the expression of OPV subunit vaccines

Connective tissue anomalies in patients with spontaneous cervical artery dissection.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence of connective tissue abnormalities in patients with spontaneous cervical artery dissections (sCeAD). METHODS: We systematically assessed clinically detectable signs of connective tissue aberration in a series of consecutive patients with sCeAD and of age- and sex-matched patients with ischemic stroke unrelated to CeAD (non-CeAD IS) by a standard examination protocol including 68 items, and performed extensive molecular investigation for hereditary connective tissue disorders in all patients with sCeAD. RESULTS: The study group included 84 patients with sCeAD (mean age, 44.5 ± 7.8 years; 66.7% men) and 84 patients with non-CeAD IS. None of the patients with sCeAD met clinical or molecular diagnostic criteria for established hereditary connective tissue disorder. Connective tissue abnormalities were detected more frequently in the group of patients with sCeAD than in the group of those with non-CeAD IS (mean number of pathologic findings, 4.5 ± 3.5 vs 1.9 ± 2.3; p < 0.001). Eighty-one patients (96.4%) in the sCeAD group had at least one detectable sign compared with 55 patients (66.7%) in the group with non-CeAD IS (p < 0.001). Skeletal, ocular, and skin abnormalities, as well as craniofacial dysmorphisms, were the clinical signs more strongly associated with sCeAD. Signs suggesting connective tissue abnormality were also more frequently represented in patients with sCeAD than in patients with traumatic CeAD (28.6%, p < 0.001; mean number of pathologic findings, 1.7 ± 3.7, p = 0.045). CONCLUSIONS: Connective tissue abnormalities are frequent in patients with sCeAD. This reinforces the hypothesis that systemic aberrations of the connective tissue might be implicated in the pathogenesis of the disease

A pragmatic approach improves the clinical management of stage IV gastric cancer: Comparison between the Meta-Gastro results and the GIRCG's retrospective series

Introduction: The Italian Research Group for Gastric Cancer developed a prospective database about stage IV gastric cancer, to evaluate how a pragmatic attitude impacts the management of these patients. Materials and methods: We prospectively collected data about metastatic gastric cancer patients thanks to cooperation between radiologists, oncologists and surgeons and we analyzed survival and prognostic factors, comparing the results to those obtained in our retrospective study. Results: Three-hundred and eighty-three patients were enrolled from 2018 to September 2022. We observed a higher percentage of laparoscopic exploration with peritoneal lavage in the prospective cohort. In the registry only 3.6 % of patients was submitted to surgery without associated chemotherapy, while in the retrospective population 44.3 % of patients were operated on without any chemotherapy. At univariate and multivariate analyses, the different metastatic sites did not show any survival differences among each other (OS 20.0 vs 16.10 vs 16.7 months for lymphnodal, peritoneal and hepatic metastases, respectively), while the number of metastatic sites and the type of treatment showed a statistical significance (OS 16,7 vs 13,0 vs 4,5 months for 1, 2 and 3 different metastatic sites respectively, p &lt; 0.001; 24,2 vs 12,0 vs 2,5 months for surgery with/without chemotherapy, chemotherapy alone and best supportive treatment respectively, p &lt; 0.001). Conclusions: Our data highlight that the different metastatic sites did not show different survivals, but survival is worse in case of multiple localization. In patients where a curative resection can be achieved, acceptable survival rates are possible. A better diagnostic workup and a more accurate staging impact favorably upon survival

Antithrombotic medications and the etiology of intracerebral hemorrhage: MUCH-Italy.

23noOBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that the effect of antithrombotic medications on the risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) varies according to the location of the hematoma. METHODS: Consecutive patients with ICH were enrolled as part of the Multicenter Study on Cerebral Hemorrhage in Italy (MUCH-Italy). Multivariable logistic regression models served to examine whether risk factors for ICH and location of the hematoma (deep vs lobar) predict treatment-specific ICH subgroups (antiplatelets-related ICH and oral anticoagulants [OACs]-related ICH). RESULTS: A total of 870 (313 lobar ICH, 557 deep ICH) subjects were included. Of these, 223 (25.6%) were taking antiplatelets and 77 (8.8%) OACs at the time of stroke. The odds of antiplatelet-related ICH increased with aging (odds ratio [OR] 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.07) and hypertension (OR 1.86; 95% CI 1.22-2.85) but had no relation with the anatomical location of ICH. Conversely, lobar location of the hematoma was associated with the subgroup of OAC-related ICH (OR 1.70; 95% CI 1.03-2.81) when compared to the subgroup of patients taking no antithrombotic medications. Within the subgroup of patients taking OACs, international normalized ratio (INR) values were higher in those with lobar ICH as compared to those with deep ICH (2.8 ± 1.1 vs 2.2 ± 0.8; p = 0.011). The proportion of patients with lobar hematoma increased with increasing intensity of anticoagulation, with a ∼2-fold increased odds of lobar compared to deep ICH (odds 2.17; p = 0.03) in those exposed to overanticoagulation (INR values >3.0). CONCLUSIONS: OACs, as opposed to antiplatelets, predispose to lobar location of brain hematomas according to a dose-response relationship.openopenPezzini, A; Grassi, M; Paciaroni, M; Zini, A; Silvestrelli, G; Del Zotto, E; Caso, V; Dell'Acqua, Ml; Giossi, A; Volonghi, I; Simone, Am; Lanari, A; Costa, P; Poli, L; Morotti, A; De Giuli, V; Pepe, D; Gamba, M; Ciccone, A; Ritelli, M; Colombi, M; Agnelli, G; Padovani, APezzini, Alessandro; Grassi, M; Paciaroni, M; Zini, A; Silvestrelli, G; Del Zotto, E; Caso, V; Dell'Acqua, Ml; Giossi, A; Volonghi, I; Simone, Am; Lanari, A; Costa, P; Poli, L; Morotti, A; De Giuli, V; Pepe, D; Gamba, M; Ciccone, A; Ritelli, M; Colombi, Marina; Agnelli, G; Padovani, Alessandr

History of migraine and volume of brain infarcts: The italian project on stroke at young age (IPSYS)

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Migraine has been shown to increase cerebral excitability, promote rapid infarct expansion into tissue with perfusion deficits, and result in larger infarcts in animal models of focal cerebral ischemia. Whether these effects occur in humans has never been properly investigated. METHODS: In a series of consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke, enrolled in the setting of the Italian Project on Stroke at Young Age, we assessed acute as well as chronic infarct volumes by volumetric magnetic resonance imaging, and compared these among different subgroups identified by migraine status. RESULTS: A cohort of 591 patients (male, 53.8%; mean age, 37.5±6.4 years) qualified for the analysis. Migraineurs had larger acute infarcts than non-migraineurs (median, 5.9 cm3 [interquartile range (IQR), 1.4 to 15.5] vs. 2.6 cm3 [IQR, 0.8 to 10.1], P<0.001), and the largest volumes were observed in patients with migraine with aura (median, 9.0 cm3 [IQR, 3.4 to 16.6]). In a linear regression model, migraine was an independent predictor of increased log (acute infarct volumes) (median ratio [MR], 1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22 to 2.20), an effect that was more prominent for migraine with aura (MR, 2.92; 95% CI, 1.88 to 4.54). CONCLUSION: s These findings reinforce the experimental observation of larger acute cerebral infarcts in migraineurs, extend animal data to human disease, and support the hypothesis of increased vulnerability to ischemic brain injury in people suffering migraine

Measurement of the cross-section and charge asymmetry of WW bosons produced in proton-proton collisions at s=8\sqrt{s}=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents measurements of the $W^+ \rightarrow \mu^+\nu$ and $W^- \rightarrow \mu^-\nu$ cross-sections and the associated charge asymmetry as a function of the absolute pseudorapidity of the decay muon. The data were collected in proton--proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC and correspond to a total integrated luminosity of 20.2~\mbox{fb^{-1}}. The precision of the cross-section measurements varies between 0.8% to 1.5% as a function of the pseudorapidity, excluding the 1.9% uncertainty on the integrated luminosity. The charge asymmetry is measured with an uncertainty between 0.002 and 0.003. The results are compared with predictions based on next-to-next-to-leading-order calculations with various parton distribution functions and have the sensitivity to discriminate between them.Comment: 38 pages in total, author list starting page 22, 5 figures, 4 tables, submitted to EPJC. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at https://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/STDM-2017-13

Search for chargino-neutralino production with mass splittings near the electroweak scale in three-lepton final states in √s=13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for supersymmetry through the pair production of electroweakinos with mass splittings near the electroweak scale and decaying via on-shell W and Z bosons is presented for a three-lepton final state. The analyzed proton-proton collision data taken at a center-of-mass energy of √s=13  TeV were collected between 2015 and 2018 by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139  fb−1. A search, emulating the recursive jigsaw reconstruction technique with easily reproducible laboratory-frame variables, is performed. The two excesses observed in the 2015–2016 data recursive jigsaw analysis in the low-mass three-lepton phase space are reproduced. Results with the full data set are in agreement with the Standard Model expectations. They are interpreted to set exclusion limits at the 95% confidence level on simplified models of chargino-neutralino pair production for masses up to 345 GeV