On the statistical modeling of persistence in total ozone anomalies

Geophysical time series sometimes exhibit serial correlations that are stronger than can be captured by the commonly used first‐order autoregressive model. In this study we demonstrate that a power law statistical model serves as a useful upper bound for the persistence of total ozone anomalies on monthly to interannual timescales. Such a model is usually characterized by the Hurst exponent. We show that the estimation of the Hurst exponent in time series of total ozone is sensitive to various choices made in the statistical analysis, especially whether and how the deterministic (including periodic) signals are filtered from the time series, and the frequency range over which the estimation is made. In particular, care must be taken to ensure that the estimate of the Hurst exponent accurately represents the low‐frequency limit of the spectrum, which is the part that is relevant to long‐term correlations and the uncertainty of estimated trends. Otherwise, spurious results can be obtained. Based on this analysis, and using an updated equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) function, we predict that an increase in total ozone attributable to EESC should be detectable at the 95% confidence level by 2015 at the latest in southern midlatitudes, and by 2020–2025 at the latest over 30°–45°N, with the time to detection increasing rapidly with latitude north of this range

Volcanic forcing improves Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model scaling performance

Recent Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations of the twentieth century climate, which account for anthropogenic and natural forcings, make it possible to study the origin of long-term temperature correlations found in the observed records. We study ensemble experiments performed with the NCAR PCM for 10 different historical scenarios, including no forcings, greenhouse gas, sulfate aerosol, ozone, solar, volcanic forcing and various combinations, such as it natural, anthropogenic and all forcings. We compare the scaling exponents characterizing the long-term correlations of the observed and simulated model data for 16 representative land stations and 16 sites in the Atlantic Ocean for these scenarios. We find that inclusion of volcanic forcing in the AOGCM considerably improves the PCM scaling behavior. The scenarios containing volcanic forcing are able to reproduce quite well the observed scaling exponents for the land with exponents around 0.65 independent of the station distance from the ocean. For the Atlantic Ocean, scenarios with the volcanic forcing slightly underestimate the observed persistence exhibiting an average exponent 0.74 instead of 0.85 for reconstructed data.Comment: 4 figure

Global climate models violate scaling of the observed atmospheric variability

We test the scaling performance of seven leading global climate models by using detrended fluctuation analysis. We analyse temperature records of six representative sites around the globe simulated by the models, for two different scenarios: (i) with greenhouse gas forcing only and (ii) with greenhouse gas plus aerosol forcing. We find that the simulated records for both scenarios fail to reproduce the universal scaling behavior of the observed records, and display wide performance differences. The deviations from the scaling behavior are more pronounced in the first scenario, where also the trends are clearly overestimated.Comment: Accepted for publishing in Physical Review Letter

Multiplicity dependence of jet-like two-particle correlations in p-Pb collisions at sNN\sqrt{s_{NN}} = 5.02 TeV

Two-particle angular correlations between unidentified charged trigger and associated particles are measured by the ALICE detector in p-Pb collisions at a nucleon-nucleon centre-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV. The transverse-momentum range 0.7 $< p_{\rm{T}, assoc} < p_{\rm{T}, trig} <$ 5.0 GeV/$c$ is examined, to include correlations induced by jets originating from low momen\-tum-transfer scatterings (minijets). The correlations expressed as associated yield per trigger particle are obtained in the pseudorapidity range $|\eta|<0.9$. The near-side long-range pseudorapidity correlations observed in high-multiplicity p-Pb collisions are subtracted from both near-side short-range and away-side correlations in order to remove the non-jet-like components. The yields in the jet-like peaks are found to be invariant with event multiplicity with the exception of events with low multiplicity. This invariance is consistent with the particles being produced via the incoherent fragmentation of multiple parton--parton scatterings, while the yield related to the previously observed ridge structures is not jet-related. The number of uncorrelated sources of particle production is found to increase linearly with multiplicity, suggesting no saturation of the number of multi-parton interactions even in the highest multiplicity p-Pb collisions. Further, the number scales in the intermediate multiplicity region with the number of binary nucleon-nucleon collisions estimated with a Glauber Monte-Carlo simulation.Comment: 23 pages, 6 captioned figures, 1 table, authors from page 17, published version, figures at http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/161

Multi-particle azimuthal correlations in p-Pb and Pb-Pb collisions at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

Measurements of multi-particle azimuthal correlations (cumulants) for charged particles in p-Pb and Pb-Pb collisions are presented. They help address the question of whether there is evidence for global, flow-like, azimuthal correlations in the p-Pb system. Comparisons are made to measurements from the larger Pb-Pb system, where such evidence is established. In particular, the second harmonic two-particle cumulants are found to decrease with multiplicity, characteristic of a dominance of few-particle correlations in p-Pb collisions. However, when a $|\Delta \eta|$ gap is placed to suppress such correlations, the two-particle cumulants begin to rise at high-multiplicity, indicating the presence of global azimuthal correlations. The Pb-Pb values are higher than the p-Pb values at similar multiplicities. In both systems, the second harmonic four-particle cumulants exhibit a transition from positive to negative values when the multiplicity increases. The negative values allow for a measurement of $v_{2}\{4\}$ to be made, which is found to be higher in Pb-Pb collisions at similar multiplicities. The second harmonic six-particle cumulants are also found to be higher in Pb-Pb collisions. In Pb-Pb collisions, we generally find $v_{2}\{4\} \simeq v_{2}\{6\}\neq 0$ which is indicative of a Bessel-Gaussian function for the $v_{2}$ distribution. For very high-multiplicity Pb-Pb collisions, we observe that the four- and six-particle cumulants become consistent with 0. Finally, third harmonic two-particle cumulants in p-Pb and Pb-Pb are measured. These are found to be similar for overlapping multiplicities, when a $|\Delta\eta| > 1.4$ gap is placed.Comment: 25 pages, 11 captioned figures, 3 tables, authors from page 20, published version, figures at http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/87

Charge separation relative to the reaction plane in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN=2.76\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}}= 2.76 TeV

Measurements of charge dependent azimuthal correlations with the ALICE detector at the LHC are reported for Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}} = 2.76$ TeV. Two- and three-particle charge-dependent azimuthal correlations in the pseudo-rapidity range $|\eta| < 0.8$ are presented as a function of the collision centrality, particle separation in pseudo-rapidity, and transverse momentum. A clear signal compatible with a charge-dependent separation relative to the reaction plane is observed, which shows little or no collision energy dependence when compared to measurements at RHIC energies. This provides a new insight for understanding the nature of the charge dependent azimuthal correlations observed at RHIC and LHC energies.Comment: 12 pages, 3 captioned figures, authors from page 2 to 6, published version, figures at http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/286

A note on comonotonicity and positivity of the control components of decoupled quadratic FBSDE

In this small note we are concerned with the solution of Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (FBSDE) with drivers that grow quadratically in the control component (quadratic growth FBSDE or qgFBSDE). The main theorem is a comparison result that allows comparing componentwise the signs of the control processes of two different qgFBSDE. As a byproduct one obtains conditions that allow establishing the positivity of the control process.Comment: accepted for publicatio

Transverse sphericity of primary charged particles in minimum bias proton-proton collisions at s=0.9\sqrt{s}=0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV

Measurements of the sphericity of primary charged particles in minimum bias proton--proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=0.9$, 2.76 and 7 TeV with the ALICE detector at the LHC are presented. The observable is linearized to be collinear safe and is measured in the plane perpendicular to the beam direction using primary charged tracks with $p_{\rm T}\geq0.5$ GeV/c in $|\eta|\leq0.8$. The mean sphericity as a function of the charged particle multiplicity at mid-rapidity ($N_{\rm ch}$) is reported for events with different $p_{\rm T}$ scales ("soft" and "hard") defined by the transverse momentum of the leading particle. In addition, the mean charged particle transverse momentum versus multiplicity is presented for the different event classes, and the sphericity distributions in bins of multiplicity are presented. The data are compared with calculations of standard Monte Carlo event generators. The transverse sphericity is found to grow with multiplicity at all collision energies, with a steeper rise at low $N_{\rm ch}$, whereas the event generators show the opposite tendency. The combined study of the sphericity and the mean $p_{\rm T}$ with multiplicity indicates that most of the tested event generators produce events with higher multiplicity by generating more back-to-back jets resulting in decreased sphericity (and isotropy). The PYTHIA6 generator with tune PERUGIA-2011 exhibits a noticeable improvement in describing the data, compared to the other tested generators.Comment: 21 pages, 9 captioned figures, 3 tables, authors from page 16, published version, figures from http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/308

Centrality dependence of charged particle production at large transverse momentum in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN=2.76\sqrt{s_{\rm{NN}}} = 2.76 TeV

The inclusive transverse momentum ($p_{\rm T}$) distributions of primary charged particles are measured in the pseudo-rapidity range $|\eta|<0.8$ as a function of event centrality in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm{NN}}}=2.76$ TeV with ALICE at the LHC. The data are presented in the $p_{\rm T}$ range $0.15<p_{\rm T}<50$ GeV/$c$ for nine centrality intervals from 70-80% to 0-5%. The Pb-Pb spectra are presented in terms of the nuclear modification factor $R_{\rm{AA}}$ using a pp reference spectrum measured at the same collision energy. We observe that the suppression of high-$p_{\rm T}$ particles strongly depends on event centrality. In central collisions (0-5%) the yield is most suppressed with $R_{\rm{AA}}\approx0.13$ at $p_{\rm T}=6$-7 GeV/$c$. Above $p_{\rm T}=7$ GeV/$c$, there is a significant rise in the nuclear modification factor, which reaches $R_{\rm{AA}} \approx0.4$ for $p_{\rm T}>30$ GeV/$c$. In peripheral collisions (70-80%), the suppression is weaker with $R_{\rm{AA}} \approx 0.7$ almost independently of $p_{\rm T}$. The measured nuclear modification factors are compared to other measurements and model calculations.Comment: 17 pages, 4 captioned figures, 2 tables, authors from page 12, published version, figures at http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/284