Loitering Munitions and Unpredictability: Autonomy in Weapon Systems and Challenges to Human Control

This report, published by the Center for War Studies, University of Southern Denmark and the Royal Holloway Centre for International Security, highlights the immediate need to regulate autonomous weapon systems, or ‘killer robots’ as they are colloquially called. Written by Dr. Ingvild Bode and Dr. Tom F.A. Watts, authors of an earlier study of air defence systems published with Drone Wars UK, the “Loitering Munitions and Unpredictability” report examines whether the use of automated, autonomous, and AI technologies as part of the global development, testing, and fielding of loitering munitions since the 1980s has impacted emerging practices and social norms of human control over the use of force. It is commonly assumed that the challenges generated by the weaponization of autonomy will materialise in the near to medium term future. The report’s central argument is that whilst most existing loitering munitions are operated by a human who authorizes strikes against system-designated targets, the integration of automated and autonomous technologies into these weapons has created worrying precedents deserving of greater public scrutiny. Loitering munitions – or ‘killer drones’ as they are often popularly known – are expendable uncrewed aircraft which can integrate sensor-based analysis to hover over, detect and explode into targets. These weapons are very important technologies within the international regulatory debates on autonomous weapon systems – a set of technologies defined by Article 36 as weapons “where force is applied automatically on the basis of a sensor-based targeting system”. The earliest loitering munitions such as the Israel Aerospace Industries Harpy are widely considered as being examples of weapons capable of automatically applying force via sensor-based targeting without human intervention. A May 2021 report authored by a UN Panel of Experts on Libya suggests that Kargu-2 loitering munitions manufactured by the Turkish defence company STM may have been “programmed to attack targets without requiring data connectivity between the operator and the munition”. According to research published by Daniel Gettinger, the number of states producing these weapons more than doubled from fewer than 10 in 2017 to almost 24 by mid-2022. The sizeable role which loitering munitions have played in the ongoing fighting between Russia and the Ukraine further underscores the timeliness of this report, having raised debates on whether so called “killer robots are the future of war?” Most manufacturers of these weapons characterize loitering munitions as “human in the loop” systems. The operators of these systems are required to authorize strikes against system-designated targets. The findings of this report, however, suggest that the global trend toward increasing autonomy in targeting has already affected the quality and form of control over the use of force that humans can exercise over specific targeting decisions. Loitering munitions can use automated, autonomous, and to a limited extent, AI technologies to identify, track, and select targets. Some manufacturers also allude to the potential capacity of the systems to attack targets without human intervention. This suggests that human operators of loitering munitions may not always retain an ability to visually verify targets before attack. This report highlights three principal areas of concern: Greater uncertainties regarding how human agents exert control over specific targeting decisions. The use of loitering munitions as anti-personnel weapons and in populated areas. Potential indiscriminate and wide area effects associated with the fielding of loitering munitions. This report’s analysis is drawn from two sources of data: first, a new qualitative data catalogue which compiles the available open-source information about the technical details, development history, and use of autonomy and automation in a global sample of 24 loitering munitions; and second, an in-depth study of how such systems have been used in three recent conflicts – the Libyan Civil War (2014-2020), the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, and the War in Ukraine (2022-). Based on its findings, the authors urge the various stakeholder groups participating in the debates at the United Nations Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons Group of Governmental Experts and elsewhere to develop and adopt legally binding international rules on autonomy in weapon systems, including loitering munitions as a category therein. It is recommended that states: Affirm, retain, and strengthen the current standard of real-time, direct human assessment of, and control over, specific targeting decisions when using loitering munitions and other weapons integrating automated, autonomous, and AI technologies as a firewall for ensuring compliance with legal and ethical norms. Establish controls over the duration and geographical area within which weapons like loitering munitions that can use automated, autonomous, and AI technologies to identify, select, track, and apply force can operate. Prohibit the integration of machine learning and other forms of unpredictable AI algorithms into the targeting functions of loitering munitions because of how this may fundamentally alter the predictability, explainability, and accountability of specific targeting decisions and their outcomes. Establish controls over the types of environments in which sensor-based weapons like loitering munitions that can use automated, autonomous, and AI technologies to identify, select, track, and apply force to targets can operate. Loitering munitions functioning as AWS should not be used in populated areas. Prohibit the use of certain target profiles for sensor-based weapons which use automated, autonomous, and AI technologies in targeting functions. This should include prohibiting the design, testing, and use of autonomy in weapon systems, including loitering munitions, to “target human beings” as well as limiting the use of such weapons “to objects that are military objectives by nature” (ICRC, 2021: 2.). Be more forthcoming in releasing technical details relating to the quality of human control exercised in operating loitering munitions in specific targeting decisions. This should include the sharing, where appropriate, of details regarding the level and character of the training that human operators of loitering munitions receive.  Funding: Research for the report was supported by funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (under grant agreement No. 852123, AutoNorms project) and from the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust. Tom Watts’ revisions to this report were supported by the funding provided by his Leverhulme Trust Early Career Research Fellowship (ECF-2022-135). We also collaborated with Article 36 in writing the report. About the authors: Dr Ingvild Bode is Associate Professor at the Center for War Studies, University of Southern Denmark and a Senior Research Fellow at the Conflict Analysis Research Centre, University of Kent. She is the Principal Investigator of the European Research Council-funded “AutoNorms” project, examining how autonomous weapons systems may change international use of force norms. Her research focuses on understanding processes of normative change, especially through studying practices in relation to the use of force, military Artificial Intelligence, and associated governance demands. More information about Ingvild’s her research is available here. Dr Tom F.A. Watts is a Leverhulme Trust Early Career Researcher based at the Department of Politics, International Relations, and Philosophy at Royal Holloway, University of London. His current project titled “Great Power Competition and Remote Warfare: Change or Continuity in Practice?” (ECF-2022-135) examines the relationship between the use of the strategic practices associated with the concept of remote warfare, the dynamics of change and continuity in contemporary American foreign policy, and autonomy in weapons systems. More information about Tom’s research is available here

Evaluation and Implementation of Biocompatible Methods for the Cross-linking of Plasma Proteins

Autologous plasma proteins can be used to fabricate patient specific cardiovascular implants but need to be cross-linked to increase their mechanical strength and reduce water solubility. Glutaraldehyde is the state-of-The-Art solution but its reaction products have been shown to be cytotoxic and pro-inflammatory. In this work, it has been shown, that cross-linking of plasma proteins with biocompatible alternatives to glutaraldehyde is possible. This was achieved by identifying four candidate substances (thrombin, transglutaminase, genipin, EDC) from current literature and investigating their ability to cross-link porcine plasma proteins in vitro. The degree of crosslinking was examined using calorimetric (DSC) and spectroscopic (FTIR, Raman) methods, mapping the influence of cross-linking on the denaturation temperature and primary amino-group content of the proteins. It could be shown that thrombin, genipin and EDC are able to cross-link plasma proteins to a satisfactory degree and thus represent useful alternatives to glutaraldehyde. Transglutaminase, on the other hand, could not sufficiently cross-link the plasma proteins and was therefore ruled out as an alternative

Search for the Proton Decay Mode proton to neutrino K+ in Soudan 2

We have searched for the proton decay mode proton to neutrino K+ using the one-kiloton Soudan 2 high resolution calorimeter. Contained events obtained from a 3.56 kiloton-year fiducial exposure through June 1997 are examined for occurrence of a visible K+ track which decays at rest into mu+ nu or pi+ pi0. We found one candidate event consistent with background, yielding a limit, tau/B > 4.3 10^{31} years at 90% CL with no background subtraction.Comment: 13 pages, Latex, 3 tables and 3 figures, Accepted by Physics Letters

The Impact of Inhomogeneous Reionization on the Satellite Galaxy Population of the Milky Way

We use the publicly available subhalo catalogs from the Via Lactea simulation along with a Gpc-scale N-body simulation to understand the impact of inhomogeneous reionization on the satellite galaxy population of the Milky Way. The large-volume simulation is combined with a model for reionization that allows us to predict the distribution of reionization times for Milky Way mass halos. Motivated by this distribution, we identify candidate satellite galaxies in the simulation by requiring that any subhalo must grow above a specified mass threshold before it is reionized; after this time the photoionizing background will suppress both the formation of stars and the accretion of gas. We show that varying the reionization time over the range expected for Milky Way mass halos can change the number of satellite galaxies by roughly two orders of magnitude. This conclusion is in contradiction with a number of studies in the literature, and we conclude that this is a result of inconsistent application of the results of Gnedin (2000). We compare our satellite galaxies to observations using both abundance matching and stellar population synthesis methods to assign luminosities to our subhalos and account for observational completeness effects. Additionally, if we assume that the mass threshold is set by the virial temperature Tvir = 8e3K we find that our model accurately matches the vmax distribution, radial distribution, and luminosity function of observed Milky Way satellites for a reionization time zreion = 9.6^{1.0}_{-2.1}, assuming that the Via Lacteasubhalo distribution is representative of the Milky Way. This results in the presence of 119^{+202}_{-50} satellite galaxies.Comment: 12 pages. Replaced with version accepted to Ap

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Eclipses During the 2010 Eruption of the Recurrent Nova U Scorpii

The eruption of the recurrent nova U Scorpii on 28 January 2010 is now the all-time best observed nova event. We report 36,776 magnitudes throughout its 67 day eruption, for an average of one measure every 2.6 minutes. This unique and unprecedented coverage is the first time that a nova has any substantial amount of fast photometry. With this, two new phenomena have been discovered: the fast flares in the early light curve seen from days 9-15 (which have no proposed explanation) and the optical dips seen out of eclipse from days 41-61 (likely caused by raised rims of the accretion disk occulting the bright inner regions of the disk as seen over specific orbital phases). The expanding shell and wind cleared enough from days 12-15 so that the inner binary system became visible, resulting in the sudden onset of eclipses and the turn-on of the supersoft X-ray source. On day 15, a strong asymmetry in the out-of-eclipse light points to the existence of the accretion stream. The normal optical flickering restarts on day 24.5. For days 15-26, eclipse mapping shows that the optical source is spherically symmetric with a radius of 4.1 R_sun. For days 26-41, the optical light is coming from a rim-bright disk of radius 3.4 R_sun. For days 41-67, the optical source is a center-bright disk of radius 2.2 R_sun. Throughout the eruption, the colors remain essentially constant. We present 12 eclipse times during eruption plus five just after the eruption.Comment: ApJ in press. 60 pages, 17 figure

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication